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> But DeepMind said GenCast surpassed the precision of the center's forecasts in more than 97 percent of the 1,320 real-world scenarios from 2019 which they wer
by gpm 2y ago
> But DeepMind said GenCast surpassed the precision of the center's forecasts in more than 97 percent of the 1,320 real-world scenarios from 2019 which they were both tested on.
> The model was trained on four decades of temperature, wind speed and air pressure data from 1979 to 2018
The test set is taken from after the training set. I agree it seems likely that it will need to be continuously trained on new data to maintain it's accuracy going forwards, but this seems like a promising sign that it should work as long as you keep updating the model.
Of course the "can compute weather in 8 minutes" thing doesn't include the ongoing training cost... so the "this is much cheaper to run" claim seems slightly suspect.
- lispisok 2y agoIt's much cheaper to run for Google as long as the ECMWF keeps cranking reanalysis for training data and keep generating new initial conditions for forecasts which are generated by combining new observations and the previous forecast generated by the ECMWF physical models which is not cheap to do.