3 ms·
I know nothing about weather, but aren't changes happening gradually instead of overnight? There's no major anomaly that appears all of a sudden. In which case
by rtsil 2y ago
I know nothing about weather, but aren't changes happening gradually instead of overnight? There's no major anomaly that appears all of a sudden. In which case we can assume the every new change will be incorporated in the AI model's training.
- throwway120385 2y agoThey happen pretty quickly sometimes in the PNW. The bomb cyclone we had in November developed within a day and wasn't very well predicted in advance. You can get a lot of traction with your assumptions but it's that 2-3% of predictions where being accurate matters a lot.
- genewitch 2y agoAs mentioned the bomb cyclone in PNW this year, but also the hurricane that started in the Pacific, whittled down to a trop depression in the gulf (crossing all that land inbetween!) and then spun up into a gnarly hurricane that made a beeline for florida (iirc?). I distinctly remember a lack of worry about that storm system until it started spinning and collecting more stuff a few days after it had left land in central america. None of the models that i know of correctly predicted that it would re-spin, and even the latest updated models with planes flying in the storm still couldn't nail the eyepath - it was essentially off by two whole cities up until it actually made landfall, and then they were a lot more accurate about the land track. i'd never heard of a storm doing that, but i am not really that in to weather, so it's possible it's in the training data somewhere?