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This is a rather depressing graph, what happened in 2022-2024?

by andersa 2y ago

nemanja_codes 2y ago
Collapse, unfortunately.
robbie-c 2y ago
end of ZIRP
- game_the0ry 2y ago
  This and over-hiring.
myth_drannon 2y ago
And to put a more depressing angle to the graph, HN and Who's hiring were not that popular pre-2017, and now 2024 numbers are lower than the pre-2017 data
- tredre3 2y ago
  > HN [...] were not that popular pre-2017 Is that true? What happened to change that in 2017? I've been around longer than that and I admit I haven't seen that much of a difference in engagement around here. But over such a long period it could easily have gone unnoticed by me! The only thing I've noticed is the increase in activity during the recent Reddit shenanigans (which resulted in a drop of quality of the conversation on HN, but it seems back to normal now).
lubujackson 2y ago
The tax change that causes companies to have to weirdly treat developer salaries as some sort of asset such that they can only write off 20% of it per year. Outcome of this is killer for startups and causing a huge issue everywhere. Bottom line: If a company makes $1MM in revenue and pays $1MM in salary, they owe taxes on $800k profit. Yes, this is actually the law now.
- seeking_re_msw 2y ago
  do you have a link to the tax change? surely tax changes come in the form of congressional+presidential bills and amendments
  - freeone3000 2y ago
    Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 moved domestic R&E expenditures (including salaries) under IRS Sec 174 from a same-year credit to a five-year amortized expense (similar to capital expenditures). It also amended 174(c)(3) to ensure that software dev is unequivocally an R&E expense[^1]. 1: https://irc.bloombergtax.com/public/uscode/doc/irc/section_174 https://irc.bloombergtax.com/public/uscode/doc/irc/section_1...
    - andersa 2y ago
      What the hell? This seems almost purposefully written to destroy the one industry where ordinary people could get good salaries. It doesn't even make any sense whatsoever, just a straight "fuck you" regulation?
      - jvanderbot 2y ago
        It almost surely was either a slap at large tech companies or was meant to generate short term revenue to cover some other cut. Same thing happened when they restructured tax code to interpret withholdings differently. Everyone saw more on their paycheck temporarily (and they gave speeches about it!) but owed more later if they didn't change their withholdings.
        freeone3000 2y ago
        Big tech, ie, large companies who are expected to exist for 5 years with about the same workforce, actually will go back to having the about same benefit in 2027. (They claim 20% of 2022 in 2022, then 20% of 2022 and 20% of 2023 in 2023…) It also covers only development expenses, so sales and legal (a large part of big tech!) are still taken as wage expenses. So it’s likely the second — and was likely used in part to pay for those very same withholding changes! Or the then-new tax-exemption for lobbying expenses.
seeking_re_msw 2y ago
Interest rates
BerislavLopac 2y ago
Interest rates were raised from nearly zero, where they were for a number of years. When the interest rates are that low, high-risk investments like VC are more attractive then alternative (having a low chance of high returns is better than guaranteed no returns at all).

This is a rather depressing graph, what happened in 2022-2024?

nemanja_codes 2y ago

Collapse, unfortunately.

robbie-c 2y ago

end of ZIRP

game_the0ry 2y ago
This and over-hiring.

myth_drannon 2y ago

And to put a more depressing angle to the graph, HN and Who's hiring were not that popular pre-2017, and now 2024 numbers are lower than the pre-2017 data

tredre3 2y ago
> HN [...] were not that popular pre-2017 Is that true? What happened to change that in 2017? I've been around longer than that and I admit I haven't seen that much of a difference in engagement around here. But over such a long period it could easily have gone unnoticed by me! The only thing I've noticed is the increase in activity during the recent Reddit shenanigans (which resulted in a drop of quality of the conversation on HN, but it seems back to normal now).

lubujackson 2y ago

The tax change that causes companies to have to weirdly treat developer salaries as some sort of asset such that they can only write off 20% of it per year. Outcome of this is killer for startups and causing a huge issue everywhere. Bottom line: If a company makes $1MM in revenue and pays $1MM in salary, they owe taxes on $800k profit. Yes, this is actually the law now.

seeking_re_msw 2y ago
do you have a link to the tax change? surely tax changes come in the form of congressional+presidential bills and amendments
- freeone3000 2y ago
  Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 moved domestic R&E expenditures (including salaries) under IRS Sec 174 from a same-year credit to a five-year amortized expense (similar to capital expenditures). It also amended 174(c)(3) to ensure that software dev is unequivocally an R&E expense[^1]. 1: https://irc.bloombergtax.com/public/uscode/doc/irc/section_174 https://irc.bloombergtax.com/public/uscode/doc/irc/section_1...
  - andersa 2y ago
    What the hell? This seems almost purposefully written to destroy the one industry where ordinary people could get good salaries. It doesn't even make any sense whatsoever, just a straight "fuck you" regulation?
    - jvanderbot 2y ago
      It almost surely was either a slap at large tech companies or was meant to generate short term revenue to cover some other cut. Same thing happened when they restructured tax code to interpret withholdings differently. Everyone saw more on their paycheck temporarily (and they gave speeches about it!) but owed more later if they didn't change their withholdings.
      - freeone3000 2y ago
        Big tech, ie, large companies who are expected to exist for 5 years with about the same workforce, actually will go back to having the about same benefit in 2027. (They claim 20% of 2022 in 2022, then 20% of 2022 and 20% of 2023 in 2023…) It also covers only development expenses, so sales and legal (a large part of big tech!) are still taken as wage expenses. So it’s likely the second — and was likely used in part to pay for those very same withholding changes! Or the then-new tax-exemption for lobbying expenses.

seeking_re_msw 2y ago

Interest rates

BerislavLopac 2y ago

Interest rates were raised from nearly zero, where they were for a number of years. When the interest rates are that low, high-risk investments like VC are more attractive then alternative (having a low chance of high returns is better than guaranteed no returns at all).