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> calculated in inflationary dollars one currently expects to see a -14% return on investment Do you mean if one invested in EE-Bonds alone and not in somethin

by jayd16 2y ago

> calculated in inflationary dollars one currently expects to see a -14% return on investment Do you mean if one invested in EE-Bonds alone and not in something that moves with inflation?

Joel_Mckay 2y ago
Talk with your bonded fiduciary advisor, they are the _only_ people that won't try to sell you on nonsense or lie to your face. Disclaimer: This is not advice, so YMMV etc... note most financial "advisors" will quietly have >80% of their investments in boring index funds. Unbounded advisors at banks etc. generally do not "practice what one preaches" when there is no legal repercussions for lying to you. Best of luck, =3
authorfly 2y ago
I suspect he is arguing the line which many "Global crash incoming" channels propose that: A) Low birth rate leads to a Population/Population disposable income total(not per capita) will decrease, and thus gross capitalization decreases reducing stock value. Decreasing the benefit of investing in index funds potentially catastrophically. B) Inflation will be/remain high(or above earning increases) for core expenses (housing, food, water, gas, transport) Sometimes with the argument that B happening will cause A to happen (e.g. more expensive = less attractive for young immigrants, less attractive to have kids) I agree with some of it (for example disposable income inequality and core inflation issues are indeed causing a cost of living crisis which is discouraging growth), but I advise NOT to go down the rabbit hole of these channels, as they can give you a lot of anxiety.
- Joel_Mckay 2y ago
  In general, one could argue disasters and conflicts affect the macroeconomic ecosystem in positive ways due to upticks in consumption... even if terrible on a personal level for living standards. It is absurd, but sycophantic idealism starts to sound really funny when you dig into the numbers. =3

by jayd16 2y ago

> calculated in inflationary dollars one currently expects to see a -14% return on investment Do you mean if one invested in EE-Bonds alone and not in something that moves with inflation?

Joel_Mckay 2y ago

Talk with your bonded fiduciary advisor, they are the _only_ people that won't try to sell you on nonsense or lie to your face. Disclaimer: This is not advice, so YMMV etc... note most financial "advisors" will quietly have >80% of their investments in boring index funds. Unbounded advisors at banks etc. generally do not "practice what one preaches" when there is no legal repercussions for lying to you. Best of luck, =3

authorfly 2y ago

I suspect he is arguing the line which many "Global crash incoming" channels propose that: A) Low birth rate leads to a Population/Population disposable income total(not per capita) will decrease, and thus gross capitalization decreases reducing stock value. Decreasing the benefit of investing in index funds potentially catastrophically. B) Inflation will be/remain high(or above earning increases) for core expenses (housing, food, water, gas, transport) Sometimes with the argument that B happening will cause A to happen (e.g. more expensive = less attractive for young immigrants, less attractive to have kids) I agree with some of it (for example disposable income inequality and core inflation issues are indeed causing a cost of living crisis which is discouraging growth), but I advise NOT to go down the rabbit hole of these channels, as they can give you a lot of anxiety.

Joel_Mckay 2y ago
In general, one could argue disasters and conflicts affect the macroeconomic ecosystem in positive ways due to upticks in consumption... even if terrible on a personal level for living standards. It is absurd, but sycophantic idealism starts to sound really funny when you dig into the numbers. =3