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Think you're not wrong about these, but think this was the price of 5 nodes in 4 years (these stepping stone nodes are going to be pretty shaky). Yeah, think ov

Think you're not wrong about these, but think this was the price of 5 nodes in 4 years (these stepping stone nodes are going to be pretty shaky). Yeah, think overall, Gelsinger's done a really good job where it's important, the technology. Becausefrom what I've read on forums, by all accounts from the insiders, the technology behind 18A is incredible (gate all around transistors, backside power delivery, 3d Chip stacking...) and that in a year or two ,it should put Intel manufacturing a little ahead of TSMC. Although, have also read that the one problem is that even 18A won't be profitable for a couple years. Yeah, that the problem with Gelsinger's original plan is that 3 years wasn't enough time to get to profitability, but 5-8 (but that it still is a good plan).

dog436zkj3p7 2y ago
Theoretically, 18A is great and should be competitive with the N2 processes from TSMC which are ramping up next year. I would love to see it succeed. The worry is that Intel will get stuck in another 10nm/Intel 7 quagmire and we'll be talking about 15A or some other process in 2 years that will finally be the process Intel needs to take the lead after the 18A failure. Pat's firing certainly doesn't inspire confidence for an external observer.
- DebtDeflation 2y ago
  Absolutely correct. Intel has until the end of next year to get 18A shipping in volume (server and laptop) and external foundry customers on the node. If they do not then they will get chopped up and sold off around the middle of 2026. Revenue: 2021 79.0B 2022 63.1B 2023 54.2B TTM (2024) 54.2B EBITDA 2021 34.1B 2022 21.3B 2023 11.2B TTM (2024) 3.3B Free Cash Flow 2021 9.1B 2022 -9.6B 2023 -14.3B TTM (2024) -15.1B Over the last 3 years, Revenue down 31.4% Operating Profit down 90.3% and utterly bleeding Cash.
  - computerdork 2y ago
    it is pretty scary. they just need to hold things together for a while longer. hopefully it works out.
- computerdork 2y ago
  Yeah, I worry myself - actually invested some of my portfolio in Intel too, my original belief was so high - But, at least by the forums I checked out, the people who know the technology say it still is really good and on track: https://semiwiki.com/forum/index.php?threads/intel-18a-too-good-but-design-lags.21568 https://semiwiki.com/forum/index.php?threads/intel-18a-too-g... But of course, the sources may be biased/overly-optimistic/hiding-info.

dog436zkj3p7 2y ago

Theoretically, 18A is great and should be competitive with the N2 processes from TSMC which are ramping up next year. I would love to see it succeed. The worry is that Intel will get stuck in another 10nm/Intel 7 quagmire and we'll be talking about 15A or some other process in 2 years that will finally be the process Intel needs to take the lead after the 18A failure. Pat's firing certainly doesn't inspire confidence for an external observer.

DebtDeflation 2y ago
Absolutely correct. Intel has until the end of next year to get 18A shipping in volume (server and laptop) and external foundry customers on the node. If they do not then they will get chopped up and sold off around the middle of 2026. Revenue: 2021 79.0B 2022 63.1B 2023 54.2B TTM (2024) 54.2B EBITDA 2021 34.1B 2022 21.3B 2023 11.2B TTM (2024) 3.3B Free Cash Flow 2021 9.1B 2022 -9.6B 2023 -14.3B TTM (2024) -15.1B Over the last 3 years, Revenue down 31.4% Operating Profit down 90.3% and utterly bleeding Cash.
- computerdork 2y ago
  it is pretty scary. they just need to hold things together for a while longer. hopefully it works out.
computerdork 2y ago
Yeah, I worry myself - actually invested some of my portfolio in Intel too, my original belief was so high - But, at least by the forums I checked out, the people who know the technology say it still is really good and on track: https://semiwiki.com/forum/index.php?threads/intel-18a-too-good-but-design-lags.21568 https://semiwiki.com/forum/index.php?threads/intel-18a-too-g... But of course, the sources may be biased/overly-optimistic/hiding-info.