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I think the timeline of failures was something like this: 1. Russia, being too entrenched in Ukraine, wanted some global focus shifted away from Ukraine, and m
by TrackerFF 2y ago
I think the timeline of failures was something like this:
1. Russia, being too entrenched in Ukraine, wanted some global focus shifted away from Ukraine, and managed to get Hamas (probably via Iran) to attack Israel last October. This would predictably become a very hot issue - especially in the US - and make the world "forget" Ukraine. There's been a lot of writing that the support for the Ukraine war will only last as long as there's mainstream focus on it, and that no new wars pop up.
2. The Gaza plan failed. Israel attacks Hezbollah and Iran, which means neither of those can help Syria. The retaliation from Israel was too strong.
3. Vital support from Russia, Iran, Hezbollah is now severely limited.
And that's pretty much that. The rebels in Syria saw their opportunity, and seized it.
What's more, is that Syria has long been an important supply route for Iran and Hezbollah. With rebel control, which is anti-Iran and anti-Hezbollah, this will have much wider-reaching impact.
- dralley 2y agoHamas attacked Israel the day after the 50th anniversary of the Yom Kippur war. While the October 7th attack may have benefitted Russia indirectly (temporarily at least), it's not particularly likely that Russia played any role in making it happen.
- dismalaf 2y agoThere's a lot of evidence that Russia was probably involved in Oct 7. They're certainly cozy with Hamas... https://www.memri.org/reports/hamas-visits-its-closest-friend-moscow-questions-surround-russias-knowledge-involvement https://www.memri.org/reports/hamas-visits-its-closest-frien...
- dralley 2y agoThere's nothing in there that particularly suggests that they promted the attack. But of course they capitalized as best they could off of the distraction.
- deleted 2y ago[deleted]
- dismalaf 2y agoI mean, plausible deniability is a cornerstone of Russia's hybrid warfare against the west... They want us to feel and "know" they did it while not being able to 100% prove it...