What you describe are two different speeds at which AI/AGI goes through Gartner's hype cycle. An interesting question is: why do we need hype cycles? Both in g

What you describe are two different speeds at which AI/AGI goes through Gartner's hype cycle. An interesting question is: why do we need hype cycles? Both in general, and what's peculiar about AI and AGI... most ideas don't go through multiple hype cycles. Wasn't one "AI Winter" enough? Tech hype is a always a kind of hyper-stition, it aims to be a self-fulfilling prophecy. So, tech hype is directed mostly toward those that can decide to invest in tech development to make it fulfill its bright future vision, achieve its destiny. But with AI/AGI, I think it's different. The impact of tech hype on the now is as important as the bright future that this hype foretell. AGI tech hype sells future marvels of productivity to the employers and executives, it creates fear for employment in employees and thus it is a form of social control and curbs HR costs and demands in the present moment; and it also has socio-political function as a way for USA, and to a lesser extend to the West at large, to reassert its manifest destiny as the center of world, both in tech prowess but also in terms of cultural hegemony. The enormous AI datacenter build up in USA creates both first-mover advantages and a first-mover disadvantages. We'll see how it plays out in the next few years.