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> How can you know what things are getting invented today if it takes 100 years of refinements for it to blossom into common knowledge and use? A good portion

> How can you know what things are getting invented today if it takes 100 years of refinements for it to blossom into common knowledge and use? A good portion of the things mentioned in the book (photography, radio (vacuum tube), telephone, television, cars, refrigerators (and AC generally), vaccines, washing machines, trains, trams, subways, automobiles, airplanes (piston and jet/turbine), rocketry and satellites, etc) were invented and available in the fifty years between 1870 and 1920, and completed mainstreaming/saturation in the fifty years between 1920 and 1970. There were some things that were invented in the 1920-70 time period: penicillin, CT scan, MRI scans, notable car refinements (fuel injection, crumple zones, seat belts, ABS, airbags), computers, transistors, modems, microwaves, fax/photocopiers. Besides the Internet and maybe smartphones, what new classes of device were created post-1970s that had a major technological, sociological, or medical effect on society? @cperciva mentioned Li-ion batteries in a comment as well.

njtransit 2y ago
Bioengineering will obviously be a large technological force moving forward. Quick vaccine development and targeting cancer seems like the tip of the iceberg. Technological advancement in semi-conductors has enabled human-like AI models.
- throw0101c 2y ago
  We'll see if any of these show in statistics like average life spans and mortality rates. We'll see if AI helps in productivity (e.g., per capita GDP): the book shows data that says that computers and the Internet had effects, but they were done by 2004 (book was published in 2016, and had numbers until 2014).
  - pfdietz 2y ago
    US labor productivity has increased considerably since just after that book was published, so I strongly doubt the "they were done" claim there.
scotty79 2y ago
> Besides the Internet and maybe smartphones, what new classes of device were created post-1970s that had a major technological, sociological, or medical effect on society? Neodymium magnets and incredible power density motors they enable. Lithium ion batteries with carbonaceous anode. As a result drones and other things. Blue led, OLED. Insane pixel density screen manufacturing Technics. GPUs I'm not sure how you can get such blind spot that you don't see immense scientific progress that was made since the 1980s Literally a better part of a day of average Westerner is spent by looking at things that weren't invented before 1980.
wqaatwt 2y ago
Vaccines were invented before 1920, surely they had everything they needed back then? It’s like saying that modern healthcare was invented in the 1800s and therefore there was absolutely no meaningful progress since then. How does that sound? > created post-1970s Digital cameras? Personal computers? Note that by your bizarre standards fridges were invented in the 1830s and microwave ovens in the 1930s so innovation stopped long before the 70s or 60s.. BTW would you also agree that computers were invented in the 1830s as well? MRI was invented in the 70s but practical devices weren’t created till years later (due to advances in other fields)

njtransit 2y ago

Bioengineering will obviously be a large technological force moving forward. Quick vaccine development and targeting cancer seems like the tip of the iceberg. Technological advancement in semi-conductors has enabled human-like AI models.

throw0101c 2y ago
We'll see if any of these show in statistics like average life spans and mortality rates. We'll see if AI helps in productivity (e.g., per capita GDP): the book shows data that says that computers and the Internet had effects, but they were done by 2004 (book was published in 2016, and had numbers until 2014).
- pfdietz 2y ago
  US labor productivity has increased considerably since just after that book was published, so I strongly doubt the "they were done" claim there.

scotty79 2y ago

> Besides the Internet and maybe smartphones, what new classes of device were created post-1970s that had a major technological, sociological, or medical effect on society? Neodymium magnets and incredible power density motors they enable. Lithium ion batteries with carbonaceous anode. As a result drones and other things. Blue led, OLED. Insane pixel density screen manufacturing Technics. GPUs I'm not sure how you can get such blind spot that you don't see immense scientific progress that was made since the 1980s Literally a better part of a day of average Westerner is spent by looking at things that weren't invented before 1980.

wqaatwt 2y ago

Vaccines were invented before 1920, surely they had everything they needed back then? It’s like saying that modern healthcare was invented in the 1800s and therefore there was absolutely no meaningful progress since then. How does that sound? > created post-1970s Digital cameras? Personal computers? Note that by your bizarre standards fridges were invented in the 1830s and microwave ovens in the 1930s so innovation stopped long before the 70s or 60s.. BTW would you also agree that computers were invented in the 1830s as well? MRI was invented in the 70s but practical devices weren’t created till years later (due to advances in other fields)