5 ms·

I'm with OP. Let's see some counterexamples.

wqaatwt 2y ago
Did you send in your comment via fax? Also in what way are "refinements" not technological innovation? e.g. modern cars are massively safer, more reliable and comfortable.
- pfdietz 2y ago
  I think the game being played is considering mere improvement in performance or cost to not count, vs. initial invention. The problem with that is there will be proto-inventions all around us that will later be improved and made economical, but we can't see them yet. So this approach is inherently biased, treating past and current innovation differently.
  - foobarian 2y ago
    I don't know, I think things like refrigeration or electricity or antibiotics were pretty visible. The closest I can think of in more recent times is the invention of the blue LED, which, it was obvious would open floodgates to 10x more efficient lighting. Maybe power semiconductors too, which unlock inverters for EV or solar. But it still doesn't compare in quality or quantity to early 20th century IMO.
    - throw0101c 2y ago
      > The closest I can think of in more recent times is the invention of the blue LED, which, it was obvious would open floodgates to 10x more efficient lighting. Not wrong, and I wouldn't want to 'regress', but compared that to going from using gas lighting and candles to the incandescent light, the introduction of LED lighting isn't as much of a step change. Also remember that there was a noticeable improvement in efficiency with fluorescent lamps pre-1970s: * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fluorescent_lamp https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fluorescent_lamp
      - foobarian 2y ago
        Oh absolutely. The fact that that’s the best I could come up with is what concerns me the most.
  - throw0101c 2y ago
    > The problem with that is there will be proto-inventions all around us that will later be improved and made economical, but we can't see them yet. Except that the book isn't taking about "proto-inventions" but items that could be purchased and used by the general public, from transportation (planes, trains, automobiles), food-related (refrigeration, microwaves, even induction cooking), radios, television, medicine (penicillin/anti-biotics). All the major inventions (except the Internet) that we would association with 'modern civilization' were invented pre-1980.
    - cperciva 2y ago
      The first prototype Lithium Ion battery was 1985. I'd say that was a pretty major invention considering how many devices use them now.
      - throw0101c 2y ago
        > The first prototype Lithium Ion battery was 1985. True to a certain extent: > Research on rechargeable Li-ion batteries dates to the 1960s; one of the earliest examples is a CuF2/Li battery developed by NASA in 1965. The breakthrough that produced the earliest form of the modern Li-ion battery was made by British chemist M. Stanley Whittingham in 1974, who first used titanium disulfide (TiS2) as a cathode material, which has a layered structure that can take in lithium ions without significant changes to its crystal structure. * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithium-ion_battery#History https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithium-ion_battery#History * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_lithium-ion_battery https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_lithium-ion_bat... But even if we grant that Li-ion batteries were a post-1970s innovation/invention—as opposed to a refinement of something that came before—it would still be one of the few that occurred, as the referenced book argues.
        pfdietz 2y ago
        The CuF2/Li cells you mention there used metallic lithium; they are not properly Li-ion batteries, where the Li ions serve only to shuttle charge across the electrolyte, not be reduced to Li metal.
- throw0101c 2y ago
  > Did you send in your comment via fax? Fax was invented in the 1800s: * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fax https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fax The 1968 Steve McQueen movie Bullitt used a fax machine to send a photograph of suspect. It's a pre-1970s invention, as is the modem: the Bell 101 was released in 1958. Edit: the authors of the book do say that the mainstreaming of computers and the Internet is one of the post-1970s innovations. > Also in what way are "refinements" not technological innovation? e.g. modern cars are massively safer, more reliable and comfortable. But not a new invention. The Model T started production in 1908: * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ford_Model_T https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ford_Model_T By the late 1920s, more that 80% of US households had at least one car; by the 1960s it was something like 160 cars per 100 households (i.e., most had at least two cars). It was by the 1930s that society had already been transformed by the automobile, regardless of how "safer, more reliable and comfortable" (or not) they were: * https://www.goodreads.com/en/book/show/2924825 https://www.goodreads.com/en/book/show/2924825 For safety, the four biggest factors were seat belts, airbags, ABS and crumple zones, all of which were invented in the 1970s or before: * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-lock_braking_system#History https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-lock_braking_system#Histo... * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airbag#History https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airbag#History * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seat_belt#History https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seat_belt#History * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crumple_zone https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crumple_zone Comfort: AC was invented by Willis Carrier in the early 1900s, and put into air cars by the 1950s: * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automotive_air_conditioning https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automotive_air_conditioning For reliability/efficiency, fuel injection was in cars by the 1950s: * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fuel_injection https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fuel_injection
  - wqaatwt 2y ago
    > Fax was invented in the 1800s: Offices didn't have them until the late 60s or 70s which is what matters. It's like saying that people could make video calls back in the 30s... > the four biggest factors Yet there were almost 2x more fatalities per same distance driven back in 1980 and almost 4x in 1970
    - throw0101c 2y ago
webdevver 2y ago
What about, hypersonic glide vehicles, specifically the material science behind their implementation?
- throw0101c 2y ago
  > What about, hypersonic glide vehicles, specifically the material science behind their implementation? And where can the general public get or make use of them? The book is not arguing that invention / improvement has stopped, but that what we've mostly seen is refinements in what was invented pre-1980.

Did you send in your comment via fax? Also in what way are "refinements" not technological innovation? e.g. modern cars are massively safer, more reliable and comfortable.

pfdietz 2y ago
I think the game being played is considering mere improvement in performance or cost to not count, vs. initial invention. The problem with that is there will be proto-inventions all around us that will later be improved and made economical, but we can't see them yet. So this approach is inherently biased, treating past and current innovation differently.
- foobarian 2y ago
  I don't know, I think things like refrigeration or electricity or antibiotics were pretty visible. The closest I can think of in more recent times is the invention of the blue LED, which, it was obvious would open floodgates to 10x more efficient lighting. Maybe power semiconductors too, which unlock inverters for EV or solar. But it still doesn't compare in quality or quantity to early 20th century IMO.
  - throw0101c 2y ago
    > The closest I can think of in more recent times is the invention of the blue LED, which, it was obvious would open floodgates to 10x more efficient lighting. Not wrong, and I wouldn't want to 'regress', but compared that to going from using gas lighting and candles to the incandescent light, the introduction of LED lighting isn't as much of a step change. Also remember that there was a noticeable improvement in efficiency with fluorescent lamps pre-1970s: * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fluorescent_lamp https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fluorescent_lamp
    - foobarian 2y ago
      Oh absolutely. The fact that that’s the best I could come up with is what concerns me the most.
- throw0101c 2y ago
  > The problem with that is there will be proto-inventions all around us that will later be improved and made economical, but we can't see them yet. Except that the book isn't taking about "proto-inventions" but items that could be purchased and used by the general public, from transportation (planes, trains, automobiles), food-related (refrigeration, microwaves, even induction cooking), radios, television, medicine (penicillin/anti-biotics). All the major inventions (except the Internet) that we would association with 'modern civilization' were invented pre-1980.
  - cperciva 2y ago
    The first prototype Lithium Ion battery was 1985. I'd say that was a pretty major invention considering how many devices use them now.
    - throw0101c 2y ago
      > The first prototype Lithium Ion battery was 1985. True to a certain extent: > Research on rechargeable Li-ion batteries dates to the 1960s; one of the earliest examples is a CuF2/Li battery developed by NASA in 1965. The breakthrough that produced the earliest form of the modern Li-ion battery was made by British chemist M. Stanley Whittingham in 1974, who first used titanium disulfide (TiS2) as a cathode material, which has a layered structure that can take in lithium ions without significant changes to its crystal structure. * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithium-ion_battery#History https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithium-ion_battery#History * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_lithium-ion_battery https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_lithium-ion_bat... But even if we grant that Li-ion batteries were a post-1970s innovation/invention—as opposed to a refinement of something that came before—it would still be one of the few that occurred, as the referenced book argues.
      - pfdietz 2y ago
        The CuF2/Li cells you mention there used metallic lithium; they are not properly Li-ion batteries, where the Li ions serve only to shuttle charge across the electrolyte, not be reduced to Li metal.
throw0101c 2y ago
> Did you send in your comment via fax? Fax was invented in the 1800s: * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fax https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fax The 1968 Steve McQueen movie Bullitt used a fax machine to send a photograph of suspect. It's a pre-1970s invention, as is the modem: the Bell 101 was released in 1958. Edit: the authors of the book do say that the mainstreaming of computers and the Internet is one of the post-1970s innovations. > Also in what way are "refinements" not technological innovation? e.g. modern cars are massively safer, more reliable and comfortable. But not a new invention. The Model T started production in 1908: * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ford_Model_T https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ford_Model_T By the late 1920s, more that 80% of US households had at least one car; by the 1960s it was something like 160 cars per 100 households (i.e., most had at least two cars). It was by the 1930s that society had already been transformed by the automobile, regardless of how "safer, more reliable and comfortable" (or not) they were: * https://www.goodreads.com/en/book/show/2924825 https://www.goodreads.com/en/book/show/2924825 For safety, the four biggest factors were seat belts, airbags, ABS and crumple zones, all of which were invented in the 1970s or before: * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-lock_braking_system#History https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-lock_braking_system#Histo... * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airbag#History https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airbag#History * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seat_belt#History https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seat_belt#History * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crumple_zone https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crumple_zone Comfort: AC was invented by Willis Carrier in the early 1900s, and put into air cars by the 1950s: * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automotive_air_conditioning https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automotive_air_conditioning For reliability/efficiency, fuel injection was in cars by the 1950s: * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fuel_injection https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fuel_injection
- wqaatwt 2y ago
  > Fax was invented in the 1800s: Offices didn't have them until the late 60s or 70s which is what matters. It's like saying that people could make video calls back in the 30s... > the four biggest factors Yet there were almost 2x more fatalities per same distance driven back in 1980 and almost 4x in 1970
  - throw0101c 2y ago

webdevver 2y ago

What about, hypersonic glide vehicles, specifically the material science behind their implementation?

throw0101c 2y ago
> What about, hypersonic glide vehicles, specifically the material science behind their implementation? And where can the general public get or make use of them? The book is not arguing that invention / improvement has stopped, but that what we've mostly seen is refinements in what was invented pre-1980.