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I wonder if GenCast's 15 day forecast is really the right indicator for forecasting? I could imagine that such long term ML forecasts tend to get closer to year
by smartmic 2y ago
I wonder if GenCast's 15 day forecast is really the right indicator for forecasting? I could imagine that such long term ML forecasts tend to get closer to yearly averages, which are kind of "washed out", but of course look good for benchmarking and marketing reasons. But they are not so practical for the majority of weather forecast users. In short, it still smells a bit like AI snake oil to me. [1]
[1] more about this: https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691249131/ai-snake-oil https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691249131/ai...
- aardvarkr 2y agoIf that was the only thing it was trained on that could be the case but they’re predicting everything and being graded against more than just their success 15 days out. I think that’s just one of the flashier value adds for weather-dependent businesses like wind production that they can have vs traditional models