3 ms·

> The WIV just published 56 new sequences, proving him wrong (but still exonerating themselves per the headline) You're picking out one point from a 15 hour de

> The WIV just published 56 new sequences, proving him wrong (but still exonerating themselves per the headline) You're picking out one point from a 15 hour debate. A much larger fraction of the debate was spent debunking false points made by the lab leak theory side. But it's also not even clear whether the zoonosis guy was wrong. He argues that the WIV didn't secretly have BANAL-52, but not that they didn't have any unpublished or unsequenced viruses collected any time up to 2021.

tripletao 2y ago
I see two arguments based on published sequences, often presented without clear distinction between the two: 1. If the WIV had a progenitor, they would have published it pre-pandemic. That was always ridiculous, since any active research group in the world has unpublished work in progress. These new samples confirm that to be specifically false, since they were collected "between 2004 and 2021". 2. If the WIV had a progenitor, they would have published it post-pandemic. In other words, they would publish that sequence, knowing that it establishes the WIV's research as the most likely cause of the pandemic. I don't think many people, no matter how honorable, would wish to confess to ~7M deaths. Even if they did, it's likely that the PRC would impose terrible consequences on themselves and their loved ones, since that contradicts the PRC's preferred story of zoonotic origin outside China followed by import on frozen fish. So I don't think the absence of published sequences means much. Do you disagree? Or is there any other piece of evidence that you believe strongly establishes that SARS-CoV-2 entered humans by natural zoonosis, and you'd be willing to discuss? I understand you think the points I mentioned from that debate aren't the most important, but you didn't say which ones you think are.
- cassepipe 2y ago
  You look like you could have won 100.000 dollars

tripletao 2y ago

I see two arguments based on published sequences, often presented without clear distinction between the two: 1. If the WIV had a progenitor, they would have published it pre-pandemic. That was always ridiculous, since any active research group in the world has unpublished work in progress. These new samples confirm that to be specifically false, since they were collected "between 2004 and 2021". 2. If the WIV had a progenitor, they would have published it post-pandemic. In other words, they would publish that sequence, knowing that it establishes the WIV's research as the most likely cause of the pandemic. I don't think many people, no matter how honorable, would wish to confess to ~7M deaths. Even if they did, it's likely that the PRC would impose terrible consequences on themselves and their loved ones, since that contradicts the PRC's preferred story of zoonotic origin outside China followed by import on frozen fish. So I don't think the absence of published sequences means much. Do you disagree? Or is there any other piece of evidence that you believe strongly establishes that SARS-CoV-2 entered humans by natural zoonosis, and you'd be willing to discuss? I understand you think the points I mentioned from that debate aren't the most important, but you didn't say which ones you think are.

cassepipe 2y ago
You look like you could have won 100.000 dollars