5 ms·

This was a terrible debate. The winner claimed that it was implausible that the WIV had unpublished viruses, so the absence of published sequences was strong ev

This was a terrible debate. The winner claimed that it was implausible that the WIV had unpublished viruses, so the absence of published sequences was strong evidence of their innocence. The WIV just published 56 new sequences, proving him wrong (but still exonerating themselves per the headline). So I guess now it's implausible that they actually had 57? The debate also relied heavily on Pekar's argument that the polytomy structure of SARS-CoV-2 proves it arose from multiple zoonotic introductions. The form of this argument was always suspect, since it's a high-dimensional model with no history of successful predictions; but beyond that, researchers replicating it found basic logic errors that greatly weaken the result: https://x.com/nizzaneela/status/1686105717135097862 https://x.com/nizzaneela/status/1686105717135097862 The paper was eventually corrected, but the authors haven't changed their exaggerated claims to the popular press, which already went beyond the original claims of their peer-reviewed paper. It seems like no one on the other side of the debate had the mathematical background to raise these issues, with the unfortunate result you see above. https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abp8337 https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abp8337

nearbuy 2y ago
> The WIV just published 56 new sequences, proving him wrong (but still exonerating themselves per the headline) You're picking out one point from a 15 hour debate. A much larger fraction of the debate was spent debunking false points made by the lab leak theory side. But it's also not even clear whether the zoonosis guy was wrong. He argues that the WIV didn't secretly have BANAL-52, but not that they didn't have any unpublished or unsequenced viruses collected any time up to 2021.
- tripletao 2y ago
  I see two arguments based on published sequences, often presented without clear distinction between the two: 1. If the WIV had a progenitor, they would have published it pre-pandemic. That was always ridiculous, since any active research group in the world has unpublished work in progress. These new samples confirm that to be specifically false, since they were collected "between 2004 and 2021". 2. If the WIV had a progenitor, they would have published it post-pandemic. In other words, they would publish that sequence, knowing that it establishes the WIV's research as the most likely cause of the pandemic. I don't think many people, no matter how honorable, would wish to confess to ~7M deaths. Even if they did, it's likely that the PRC would impose terrible consequences on themselves and their loved ones, since that contradicts the PRC's preferred story of zoonotic origin outside China followed by import on frozen fish. So I don't think the absence of published sequences means much. Do you disagree? Or is there any other piece of evidence that you believe strongly establishes that SARS-CoV-2 entered humans by natural zoonosis, and you'd be willing to discuss? I understand you think the points I mentioned from that debate aren't the most important, but you didn't say which ones you think are.
  - cassepipe 2y ago
    You look like you could have won 100.000 dollars

nearbuy 2y ago

> The WIV just published 56 new sequences, proving him wrong (but still exonerating themselves per the headline) You're picking out one point from a 15 hour debate. A much larger fraction of the debate was spent debunking false points made by the lab leak theory side. But it's also not even clear whether the zoonosis guy was wrong. He argues that the WIV didn't secretly have BANAL-52, but not that they didn't have any unpublished or unsequenced viruses collected any time up to 2021.

tripletao 2y ago
I see two arguments based on published sequences, often presented without clear distinction between the two: 1. If the WIV had a progenitor, they would have published it pre-pandemic. That was always ridiculous, since any active research group in the world has unpublished work in progress. These new samples confirm that to be specifically false, since they were collected "between 2004 and 2021". 2. If the WIV had a progenitor, they would have published it post-pandemic. In other words, they would publish that sequence, knowing that it establishes the WIV's research as the most likely cause of the pandemic. I don't think many people, no matter how honorable, would wish to confess to ~7M deaths. Even if they did, it's likely that the PRC would impose terrible consequences on themselves and their loved ones, since that contradicts the PRC's preferred story of zoonotic origin outside China followed by import on frozen fish. So I don't think the absence of published sequences means much. Do you disagree? Or is there any other piece of evidence that you believe strongly establishes that SARS-CoV-2 entered humans by natural zoonosis, and you'd be willing to discuss? I understand you think the points I mentioned from that debate aren't the most important, but you didn't say which ones you think are.
- cassepipe 2y ago
  You look like you could have won 100.000 dollars