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Yep. The current wave of "AI" startups are going to totally burn through the terms "AI" and "AGI", with one of two possible outcomes: * We enter another "AI Wi

Yep. The current wave of "AI" startups are going to totally burn through the terms "AI" and "AGI", with one of two possible outcomes: * We enter another "AI Winter" of sorts. People will continue to work on LLMs and other deep learning applications because they're legitimately useful in moderation, but they'll distance themselves from the label "AI" or "AGI" because it will start sounding like "I work on blockchain" does today. * Both terms will end up completely watered down, with "AI"/"AGI" becoming a catch-all to mean "a computer algorithm of some kind does some magic the user doesn't fully understand"—the new, hipper word for "software". OpenAI will declare victory and we'll have to come up with a new term for an artificial intelligence that can actually do the stuff that AGI was supposed to do.

RaftPeople 2y ago
I'm already working on AGI++
tim333 2y ago
I don't really see that myself. The exponential growth in computing will continue and while AGI is not very defined, people mostly think of it as human like or better intelligence, and it'll probably happen regardless of the startups. Though maybe spread over a period of time, for different abilities.
rlupi 2y ago
What you describe are two different speeds at which AI/AGI goes through Gartner's hype cycle. An interesting question is: why do we need hype cycles? Both in general, and what's peculiar about AI and AGI... most ideas don't go through multiple hype cycles. Wasn't one "AI Winter" enough? Tech hype is a always a kind of hyper-stition, it aims to be a self-fulfilling prophecy. So, tech hype is directed mostly toward those that can decide to invest in tech development to make it fulfill its bright future vision, achieve its destiny. But with AI/AGI, I think it's different. The impact of tech hype on the now is as important as the bright future that this hype foretell. AGI tech hype sells future marvels of productivity to the employers and executives, it creates fear for employment in employees and thus it is a form of social control and curbs HR costs and demands in the present moment; and it also has socio-political function as a way for USA, and to a lesser extend to the West at large, to reassert its manifest destiny as the center of world, both in tech prowess but also in terms of cultural hegemony. The enormous AI datacenter build up in USA creates both first-mover advantages and a first-mover disadvantages. We'll see how it plays out in the next few years.

RaftPeople 2y ago

I'm already working on AGI++

tim333 2y ago

I don't really see that myself. The exponential growth in computing will continue and while AGI is not very defined, people mostly think of it as human like or better intelligence, and it'll probably happen regardless of the startups. Though maybe spread over a period of time, for different abilities.

rlupi 2y ago

What you describe are two different speeds at which AI/AGI goes through Gartner's hype cycle. An interesting question is: why do we need hype cycles? Both in general, and what's peculiar about AI and AGI... most ideas don't go through multiple hype cycles. Wasn't one "AI Winter" enough? Tech hype is a always a kind of hyper-stition, it aims to be a self-fulfilling prophecy. So, tech hype is directed mostly toward those that can decide to invest in tech development to make it fulfill its bright future vision, achieve its destiny. But with AI/AGI, I think it's different. The impact of tech hype on the now is as important as the bright future that this hype foretell. AGI tech hype sells future marvels of productivity to the employers and executives, it creates fear for employment in employees and thus it is a form of social control and curbs HR costs and demands in the present moment; and it also has socio-political function as a way for USA, and to a lesser extend to the West at large, to reassert its manifest destiny as the center of world, both in tech prowess but also in terms of cultural hegemony. The enormous AI datacenter build up in USA creates both first-mover advantages and a first-mover disadvantages. We'll see how it plays out in the next few years.