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> ...with Calin Georgescu coming out of nowhere to win the first round, with classical polling showing him below 5%. Obviously I'm no expert in Romainian votin

by roenxi 2y ago

> ...with Calin Georgescu coming out of nowhere to win the first round, with classical polling showing him below 5%. Obviously I'm no expert in Romainian voting procedures, but how does that make any sense without there being vote tampering? The polling must have been able to see him coming. It is hard to see even a state actor successfully pulling off that sort of insane last minute blitz without resorting to a mind control ray. Legit or not, something insane just happened.

dak89 2y ago
A couple of other possible explanations: 1) People voted who don't normally vote, the main reason Trump has often overperformed polls. 2) Pollsters wanted to avoid a preference cascade. I think 1 is the most likely reason. It's important to remember Romania is much poorer and more corrupt than the typical Western European country which means the established political parties are both less popular and more vulnerable to disruption by (in this case somewhat unhinged) outsiders.
- PeterStuer 2y ago
  Don't forget: people tend to lie in polls if their real vote preference is deemed unsavoury by the current mainstream media.
  - cbg0 2y ago
    This wasn't the case here, CG wasn't a well-known candidate with a large party behind him.
  - dak89 2y ago
    Yes, that's also a very plausible explanation
danicriss 2y ago
It happened incredibly fast Polling did see it coming. But the growth was so unprecedented, the pollsters questioned their sanity (read: methodology, or at least sampling bias) The campaign propelling him happened during the two weeks preceding the election. Enough to create a wave of enthusiasm, just short enough to fly below the radar (of him properly getting scrutinised) Romania's NSA report suggests the campaign was a copycat of campaigns in Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova. Romania either had an X factor that made this one succeed, or the state actor managed to nail the way it calibrated the campaign this time

by roenxi 2y ago

dak89 2y ago

A couple of other possible explanations: 1) People voted who don't normally vote, the main reason Trump has often overperformed polls. 2) Pollsters wanted to avoid a preference cascade. I think 1 is the most likely reason. It's important to remember Romania is much poorer and more corrupt than the typical Western European country which means the established political parties are both less popular and more vulnerable to disruption by (in this case somewhat unhinged) outsiders.

PeterStuer 2y ago
Don't forget: people tend to lie in polls if their real vote preference is deemed unsavoury by the current mainstream media.
- cbg0 2y ago
  This wasn't the case here, CG wasn't a well-known candidate with a large party behind him.
- dak89 2y ago
  Yes, that's also a very plausible explanation

danicriss 2y ago

It happened incredibly fast Polling did see it coming. But the growth was so unprecedented, the pollsters questioned their sanity (read: methodology, or at least sampling bias) The campaign propelling him happened during the two weeks preceding the election. Enough to create a wave of enthusiasm, just short enough to fly below the radar (of him properly getting scrutinised) Romania's NSA report suggests the campaign was a copycat of campaigns in Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova. Romania either had an X factor that made this one succeed, or the state actor managed to nail the way it calibrated the campaign this time