3 ms·
Sci-fi portrayals are as quaint as those pictures in 1900 of everyone flying around in 100 years, rather than being glued to their smartphones: https://www.redd
by EGreg 2y ago
Sci-fi portrayals are as quaint as those pictures in 1900 of everyone flying around in 100 years, rather than being glued to their smartphones:
https://www.reddit.com/r/Damnthatsinteresting/comments/12b4wxd/this_is_what_people_in_the_1900s_thought_that_the/ https://www.reddit.com/r/Damnthatsinteresting/comments/12b4w...
Minority Report was meticulously researched, for example, but it had physical disks moved around (movement) and the guy's security credentials weren't rotated, and he was able to get into a lot of places, like his former place to steal the precog etc.
Data from Star Trek, or "the Computer" are quaint. Data is just one Android while you can easily download AI models to unlimited machines and robots. And "the Computer" speaks like a ro-bot but the movie "Her" is much more like what AI is becoming. The Holodeck might be closer.
Here is what a realistic movie of our future would look like:
It would be super boring.
Nothing would move.
Every crime would be solved efficiently
or not even allowed to occur.
Effectively digital ID for everyone/thing.
Security is tight, no advancing the plot
Cameras everywhere, cheap and plentiful
AI correlates all the sightings
Mass surveillance (cheap) of online comms
and quick extrapolation of every scheme.
Any scheme is thwarted before it happens
Robots everywhere, doing all work
Robots spying on everyone in their home
Humans produce less than 1% of content
Humans earn less than 1% of money
Humans become irrelevant to the economy
Knowledge and algorithms easily replicated
Robots can download new software over the air
No sense of identity of self preservation
Just commoditization of all skills (2030)
Probably no interest in anything, since
every bot knows everything, and has no
self-preservation instinct or sense of self
except just to simulate it, for humans,
until humans become economically irrelevant.
About the only threat, in this system (and it's a serious one) is that the cost for producing bot swarms with malicious intents, that anyone with few resources could release a bot swarm to work at scale across multiple platforms, amassing gameable metrics such as karma / clout / reputation, as sleeper cells, gradually shifting discussions. They would dominate 99% of the content everywhere, turning the Internet and the entire world into a Dark Forest. Anyone who shows up would be exploited over time, because it's cheap and easy:
https://ystrickler.medium.com/the-dark-forest-theory-of-the-internet-7dc3e68a7cb1 https://ystrickler.medium.com/the-dark-forest-theory-of-the-...
In the short term (i.e. by 2030) bots will have infiltrated every platform and social network, even those which might try to close themselves off, because their existing users would run bots in their accounts to gain an advantage, until being "just yourself" un-augmented would get you poor results. Since there is no way to tell if someone is human or not (just as if you'd use rybka chess program for one move every 10 or so), people would just default to "being enhanced" or "having assistants".
Swarms of agents / bots / robots are the thing to look out for. They can coordinate at scale, execute long term plans relentlessly and imperceptibly and never forget what they're going after. (And when swarming can be perfected in the real world, you might get this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O-2tpwW0kmU https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O-2tpwW0kmU)
So yeah, sci-fi movies can be exciting, but in a "terminator" way where malicious destruction is the default, and only because the cost is so cheap to wreak havoc at scale.
In any case, the idea that you'd need "armor" or even try to explore the universe yourself, is laughable. Bots and drones will be built to fight wars, explore space, etc. A lot of von neumann probes, etc. They can build an entire "civilization" of terraforming planets over thousands of years, but they wouldn't need oxygen etc etc. Out in space, they might have an actual purpose and plan that is very different from humans. But for humans to go travel there would probably be very unlikely, many people (like Rogan) don't even believe humans could have survived the trip to our own moon, due to space radiation.
- arminiusreturns 2y agoThis accurate and depressing to know it is likely the future. It makes me think of "nets" in CyberPunk 2077, and how everyone is trying to run/control their own private one, and "the net" is super dangerous, as it's the way direct hacks of your on-person augments are done for example. Then there is the "blackwall", where the rogue AIs exist.