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True but the 10,000 civilians were not all killed while they were living there. Most were evacuated as the battlefield front lines moved towards those towns. I

by _1tem 2y ago

True but the 10,000 civilians were not all killed while they were living there. Most were evacuated as the battlefield front lines moved towards those towns. In Iraq, there were 10s of thousands of civilian casualties estimated within the first few days of the invasion. That's more than the entire casualty estimate for Ukraine so far.

varjag 2y ago
There's estimated 47k to 100k civilians who have perished in a couple of months in siege of Mariupol, not sure what the "entire casualty estimate" you're talking about.
- aguaviva 2y ago
  There's estimated 47k to 100k civilians who have perished in a couple of months in siege of Mariupol, The outside estimates I've seen from Ukrainian sources say 25k total. Your estimate is 2x-4x higher. How is that?
  - dralley 2y ago
    Because you aren't using "estimates" for Ukrainian casualties, you're using the numbers that have been able to be verified with evidence by third parties. In Mariupol alone there were ~10,000 new graves on satellite imagery and some of them are large enough for multiple bodies, which we know was done in Lyman when those mass graves were excavated.
    - aguaviva 2y ago
      Because you aren't using "estimates" Because you don't know what source I'm referring to, how can you possibly know?
mopsi 2y ago
> True but the 10,000 civilians were not all killed while they were living there. Baghdad still stands. Many Ukrainian towns are nothing but a name on a map and a pile of rubble on the ground. I didn't mean to leave an impression as if all inhabitants have been killed, but the towns have ceased to exist as places of human settlement. > In Iraq, there were 10s of thousands of civilian casualties estimated within the first few days of the invasion. Certainly not, that's an insane number. Common estimates put the number of civilian casualties in low thousands for the entire invasion phase that lasted several months, and these figures include deaths from indirect causes such as crime related to breakdown of social order, which contributed roughly as much as the invading force itself, if you trust the data from Iraqi Body Count project. > That's more than the entire casualty estimate for Ukraine so far. Everyone doing estimates stresses that they severely undercount due to lack of access to occupied areas. You are comparing a clearly inflated Iraqi figures against clearly undercounted Ukrainian figures. While formally not civilians, many who have died as Russian combatants were Ukrainian civilians who were forcibly conscripted from occupied areas. These so-called "mobiks" alone make up tens of thousands of dead because they were untrained, poorly equipped and expendable.
dgroshev 2y ago
Can you please provide a source for the 10s of thousands claim? I find it extremely hard to believe, considering the way the war was persecuted. The US did not indiscriminately shell cities with cluster munitions [1], and Iraqi cities are less dense and smaller than commie block filled Ukrainian ones. [1]: Russia routinely fires cluster munitions into densely populated cities, eg https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/features-60941459 https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/features-60941459
- _1tem 2y ago
  > The US did not indiscriminately shell cities with cluster munitions [1] Like I said, I heard first hand from a US veteran who served there in Iraq and was with me in Ukraine. He said Iraq was "much worse" in terms of civilian casualties in his estimation. Almost all statistical estimates you can find online also seem to confirm this, the civilian death toll was much worse in Iraq.
  - dgroshev 2y ago
    Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence, and hearsay and unnamed "statistical estimates" are hardly extraordinary. The claim is definitely extraordinary since both wars are extensively documented, and we just know (like, we have verifiable videos) that Russia has much, much less regard for civilian casualties, employs much less precise fires, and Ukraine is more populous and dense than Iraq. Besides, the numbers I could find are the other way around. This study [1] estimates 3,750 civilian deaths in Iraq, and this UN report [2] says 10,582 recorded civilian deaths (that is, it's definitely an undercount, unlike the estimation in Iraq). [1]: https://www.comw.org/pda/0310rm8.html#3.3.%20Total%20Iraqi%20noncombatant%20death https://www.comw.org/pda/0310rm8.html#3.3.%20Total%20Iraqi%2... [2]: https://www.ohchr.org/sites/default/files/2024-02/two-year-update-protection-civilians-impact-hostilities-civilians-24.pdf https://www.ohchr.org/sites/default/files/2024-02/two-year-u...

by _1tem 2y ago

varjag 2y ago

There's estimated 47k to 100k civilians who have perished in a couple of months in siege of Mariupol, not sure what the "entire casualty estimate" you're talking about.

aguaviva 2y ago
There's estimated 47k to 100k civilians who have perished in a couple of months in siege of Mariupol, The outside estimates I've seen from Ukrainian sources say 25k total. Your estimate is 2x-4x higher. How is that?
- dralley 2y ago
  Because you aren't using "estimates" for Ukrainian casualties, you're using the numbers that have been able to be verified with evidence by third parties. In Mariupol alone there were ~10,000 new graves on satellite imagery and some of them are large enough for multiple bodies, which we know was done in Lyman when those mass graves were excavated.
  - aguaviva 2y ago
    Because you aren't using "estimates" Because you don't know what source I'm referring to, how can you possibly know?

mopsi 2y ago

> True but the 10,000 civilians were not all killed while they were living there. Baghdad still stands. Many Ukrainian towns are nothing but a name on a map and a pile of rubble on the ground. I didn't mean to leave an impression as if all inhabitants have been killed, but the towns have ceased to exist as places of human settlement. > In Iraq, there were 10s of thousands of civilian casualties estimated within the first few days of the invasion. Certainly not, that's an insane number. Common estimates put the number of civilian casualties in low thousands for the entire invasion phase that lasted several months, and these figures include deaths from indirect causes such as crime related to breakdown of social order, which contributed roughly as much as the invading force itself, if you trust the data from Iraqi Body Count project. > That's more than the entire casualty estimate for Ukraine so far. Everyone doing estimates stresses that they severely undercount due to lack of access to occupied areas. You are comparing a clearly inflated Iraqi figures against clearly undercounted Ukrainian figures. While formally not civilians, many who have died as Russian combatants were Ukrainian civilians who were forcibly conscripted from occupied areas. These so-called "mobiks" alone make up tens of thousands of dead because they were untrained, poorly equipped and expendable.

dgroshev 2y ago

Can you please provide a source for the 10s of thousands claim? I find it extremely hard to believe, considering the way the war was persecuted. The US did not indiscriminately shell cities with cluster munitions [1], and Iraqi cities are less dense and smaller than commie block filled Ukrainian ones. [1]: Russia routinely fires cluster munitions into densely populated cities, eg https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/features-60941459 https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/features-60941459

_1tem 2y ago
> The US did not indiscriminately shell cities with cluster munitions [1] Like I said, I heard first hand from a US veteran who served there in Iraq and was with me in Ukraine. He said Iraq was "much worse" in terms of civilian casualties in his estimation. Almost all statistical estimates you can find online also seem to confirm this, the civilian death toll was much worse in Iraq.
- dgroshev 2y ago
  Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence, and hearsay and unnamed "statistical estimates" are hardly extraordinary. The claim is definitely extraordinary since both wars are extensively documented, and we just know (like, we have verifiable videos) that Russia has much, much less regard for civilian casualties, employs much less precise fires, and Ukraine is more populous and dense than Iraq. Besides, the numbers I could find are the other way around. This study [1] estimates 3,750 civilian deaths in Iraq, and this UN report [2] says 10,582 recorded civilian deaths (that is, it's definitely an undercount, unlike the estimation in Iraq). [1]: https://www.comw.org/pda/0310rm8.html#3.3.%20Total%20Iraqi%20noncombatant%20death https://www.comw.org/pda/0310rm8.html#3.3.%20Total%20Iraqi%2... [2]: https://www.ohchr.org/sites/default/files/2024-02/two-year-update-protection-civilians-impact-hostilities-civilians-24.pdf https://www.ohchr.org/sites/default/files/2024-02/two-year-u...