Great article, Addy gets to the core of it and explains in a non-biased (pro or con), non-hype way. The examples, patterns and recommendations match what I've s

Great article, Addy gets to the core of it and explains in a non-biased (pro or con), non-hype way. The examples, patterns and recommendations match what I've seen pretty well. I've been working on an agentic full-app codegen AI startup for about a year, and used Copilot and other coding assistance tools since it was generally available. Last year, nobody even thought full app coding tools to be possible. Today they're all the rage: I track ~15 full codegen AI startups (what now seems to be called "agentic coding") and ~10 coding assistants. Of these, around half focus on a specific niche (eg. resolving github issues, full-stack coding a few app types, or building the frontend prototype), and half attempt to do full projects. The paradox that Addy hints at is that senior, knowledgeable developers are much more likely to get value out of both of these categories. For assistants, you need to inspect the output and fix/adapt it. For agentic coders, you need to be able to micromanage or bypass them on issues that block them. However, more experienced developers are (rightly) wary of new hyped up tools promising the moon. It's the junior devs, and even non-developers who drink the kool aid and embrace this, and then get stuck on 70%, or 90%... and they don't have the knowledge or experience to go past. It's worse than useless, they've spent their time, money, and possibly reputation (within their teams/orgs) on it, and got nothing out of it. At the startup I mentioned, virtually all our dev time was spent on trying to move that breaking point from 50%, to 70%, to 90%, to larger projects, ... but in most cases it was still there. Literally an exponential amount of effort to move the needle. Based on this, I don't think we'll be able to see fully autonomous coding agents capable of doing non-toy projects any time soon. At the same time, the capabilities are rising and costs dropping down. IMHO the biggest current limit for agentic coding is the speed (or lack of) of state-of-the-art models. If you can get 10x speed, you can throw in 10x more reasoning (inference-time computing, to use the modern buzzwords) and get 1.5x-2x better, in terms of quality or capability to reason about more complex projects.