You should read the introduction at http://yudkowsky.net/bayes/bayes.html http://yudkowsky.net/bayes/bayes.html first if you aren't familiar with Bayesian reaso

You should read the introduction at http://yudkowsky.net/bayes/bayes.html http://yudkowsky.net/bayes/bayes.html first if you aren't familiar with Bayesian reasoning. The introduction is a bit repetetive, so skip over parts of it once you understand the idea.