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The reality is more like: The frothy american economy over the past 20 years has created an unnaturally large number of individuals and organizations with high

by 015a 2y ago

The reality is more like: The frothy american economy over the past 20 years has created an unnaturally large number of individuals and organizations with high net worth who don't actually engage in productive output. A product like ChatGPT Pro can exist in this world because it being incapable of consistent, net-positive productive output isn't actually a barrier to being worth $200/month if consistent net-positive productive output isn't also demanded of the individual or organization it is augmenting. The macroeconomic climate of the next ~ten years is going to hit some people and companies like a truck.

airstrike 2y ago
> The macroeconomic climate of the next ~ten years is going to hit some people and companies like a truck. Who's to say the frothy American economy doesn't last another 50 years while the rest of the world keeps limping along?
- talldayo 2y ago
  At the risk of putting too fine a point on it, I'd probably say China.
  - airstrike 2y ago
    China is struggling. Low growth, high unemployment, huge debt from infrastructure spending, weakening capital markets and real estate...
    - phil917 2y ago
      Don't forget the massive population decline set to literally halve the population in the next 70 years...
      - lossolo 2y ago
        I wouldn’t consider it a major problem, especially with the coming robotic revolution. Even if the population declines by half, that would still leave 700 million people so twice the population of the U.S. According to predictions, the first signs of demographic challenges are expected to appear in about 15–20 years from now. That’s a long time, and a lot can change in two decades. Just compare the world in 2004 to today. It's a major mistake to underestimate your competition.
        airstrike 2y ago
        > the coming robotic revolution That's a long ways out. We're barely past the first innings of the chatbot revolution and it's already struggling to keep going. Robotics are way more complex because physics can be cruel.
        lossolo 2y ago
        https://www.physicalintelligence.company/blog/pi0?blog https://www.physicalintelligence.company/blog/pi0?blog Show me what was possible 20 years ago versus what we can do now. I think you have enough imagination to envision what might be possible 20 years from now.
    - lossolo 2y ago
      > Low growth For 2024 prediction is 2.6% US and 4.8% China. I don't see how it's low compared to US. > high unemployment 5.1% China vs 4.1% USA > huge debt from infrastructure spending What do you mean by "huge" and compared to whom? The U.S. is currently running a $2 trillion deficit per year, which is about 6% of GDP, with only a fraction allocated to investments. > weakening capital markets and real estate China's economy operates differently from that of the U.S. Currently, China records monthly trade surpluses ranging between $80 billion and $100 billion. The real estate sector indeed presents challenges, leading the government to inject funds into local government to manage the resulting debt. The effectiveness of these measures remains to be seen. There is a lot of wishful thinking on HN regarding the rivalry between China and the U.S
      - airstrike 2y ago
        The comparison is not between US and China. I don't understand why people keep making that comparison when it's not at all apples-to-apples. It's featured in headlines constantly, but it's honestly a stick measuring contest. For starters, the US is a free economy and the China is a centrally planned one. There's significant chatter about China numbers being massaged to suit the state's narrative, leaving would-be investors extra cautious, whereas in the US data quality and availability is state-of-the-art. The real questions are: can China deliver on long term expectations for its economy? Do the trends support the argument that it will become a leading developed economy? I don't think they do. If they don't, then is it an issue with the current economy plan that can be solved with a better plan or is it a systemic issue that can't be solved in the near to medium term? These are way more useful questions than "who's going to win the race?" >> Low growth > For 2024 prediction is 2.6% US and 4.8% China. I don't see how it's low compared to US. China is growing slower than historically and slower than forecasts which were it at 5%. Look at this chart and tell me if it points a rosy picture or a problematic one: https://img.semafor.com/5378ad07f43bc81f65ab92ddc19ec5899dc97453-1066x938.jpg?w=828&q=75&auto=format https://img.semafor.com/5378ad07f43bc81f65ab92ddc19ec5899dc9... >> high unemployment > 5.1% China vs 4.1% USA Again, comparing China to China, it's generally increasing every year: https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/chn/china/unemployment-rate https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/chn/chi... Youth unemployment is basically skyrocketing: https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/chn/china/youth-unemployment-rate https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/chn/chi... >> huge debt from infrastructure spending > What do you mean by "huge" and compared to whom? To answer in reverse: yes, the US also has a debt problem. That doesn't make the China problem less of an issue. The china debt crisis has been widely reported and is related to the other point about real estate. Those articles will definitely do a better job of explaining the issue than me, so here's just one: https://www.reuters.com/breakingviews/chinas-risky-answer-wall-debt-is-more-debt-2024-06-17/ https://www.reuters.com/breakingviews/chinas-risky-answer-wa... > There is a lot of wishful thinking on HN regarding the rivalry between China and the U.S I'm arguing there's no rivalry. Different countries, different problems, different scales entirely. China is in dire straits and I don't expect it to recover before the crisis gets worse.

by 015a 2y ago

airstrike 2y ago

> The macroeconomic climate of the next ~ten years is going to hit some people and companies like a truck. Who's to say the frothy American economy doesn't last another 50 years while the rest of the world keeps limping along?

talldayo 2y ago
At the risk of putting too fine a point on it, I'd probably say China.
- airstrike 2y ago
  China is struggling. Low growth, high unemployment, huge debt from infrastructure spending, weakening capital markets and real estate...
  - phil917 2y ago
    Don't forget the massive population decline set to literally halve the population in the next 70 years...
    - lossolo 2y ago
      I wouldn’t consider it a major problem, especially with the coming robotic revolution. Even if the population declines by half, that would still leave 700 million people so twice the population of the U.S. According to predictions, the first signs of demographic challenges are expected to appear in about 15–20 years from now. That’s a long time, and a lot can change in two decades. Just compare the world in 2004 to today. It's a major mistake to underestimate your competition.
      - airstrike 2y ago
        > the coming robotic revolution That's a long ways out. We're barely past the first innings of the chatbot revolution and it's already struggling to keep going. Robotics are way more complex because physics can be cruel.
        lossolo 2y ago
        https://www.physicalintelligence.company/blog/pi0?blog https://www.physicalintelligence.company/blog/pi0?blog Show me what was possible 20 years ago versus what we can do now. I think you have enough imagination to envision what might be possible 20 years from now.
  - lossolo 2y ago
    > Low growth For 2024 prediction is 2.6% US and 4.8% China. I don't see how it's low compared to US. > high unemployment 5.1% China vs 4.1% USA > huge debt from infrastructure spending What do you mean by "huge" and compared to whom? The U.S. is currently running a $2 trillion deficit per year, which is about 6% of GDP, with only a fraction allocated to investments. > weakening capital markets and real estate China's economy operates differently from that of the U.S. Currently, China records monthly trade surpluses ranging between $80 billion and $100 billion. The real estate sector indeed presents challenges, leading the government to inject funds into local government to manage the resulting debt. The effectiveness of these measures remains to be seen. There is a lot of wishful thinking on HN regarding the rivalry between China and the U.S
    - airstrike 2y ago
      The comparison is not between US and China. I don't understand why people keep making that comparison when it's not at all apples-to-apples. It's featured in headlines constantly, but it's honestly a stick measuring contest. For starters, the US is a free economy and the China is a centrally planned one. There's significant chatter about China numbers being massaged to suit the state's narrative, leaving would-be investors extra cautious, whereas in the US data quality and availability is state-of-the-art. The real questions are: can China deliver on long term expectations for its economy? Do the trends support the argument that it will become a leading developed economy? I don't think they do. If they don't, then is it an issue with the current economy plan that can be solved with a better plan or is it a systemic issue that can't be solved in the near to medium term? These are way more useful questions than "who's going to win the race?" >> Low growth > For 2024 prediction is 2.6% US and 4.8% China. I don't see how it's low compared to US. China is growing slower than historically and slower than forecasts which were it at 5%. Look at this chart and tell me if it points a rosy picture or a problematic one: https://img.semafor.com/5378ad07f43bc81f65ab92ddc19ec5899dc97453-1066x938.jpg?w=828&q=75&auto=format https://img.semafor.com/5378ad07f43bc81f65ab92ddc19ec5899dc9... >> high unemployment > 5.1% China vs 4.1% USA Again, comparing China to China, it's generally increasing every year: https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/chn/china/unemployment-rate https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/chn/chi... Youth unemployment is basically skyrocketing: https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/chn/china/youth-unemployment-rate https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/chn/chi... >> huge debt from infrastructure spending > What do you mean by "huge" and compared to whom? To answer in reverse: yes, the US also has a debt problem. That doesn't make the China problem less of an issue. The china debt crisis has been widely reported and is related to the other point about real estate. Those articles will definitely do a better job of explaining the issue than me, so here's just one: https://www.reuters.com/breakingviews/chinas-risky-answer-wall-debt-is-more-debt-2024-06-17/ https://www.reuters.com/breakingviews/chinas-risky-answer-wa... > There is a lot of wishful thinking on HN regarding the rivalry between China and the U.S I'm arguing there's no rivalry. Different countries, different problems, different scales entirely. China is in dire straits and I don't expect it to recover before the crisis gets worse.