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$200 per month means it must be good enough at your job to replicate and replace a meaningful fraction of your total work. Valid? For coding, probably. For othe

$200 per month means it must be good enough at your job to replicate and replace a meaningful fraction of your total work. Valid? For coding, probably. For other purposes I remain on the fence.

avgDev 2y ago
I don't trust it for coding either.
015a 2y ago
The reality is more like: The frothy american economy over the past 20 years has created an unnaturally large number of individuals and organizations with high net worth who don't actually engage in productive output. A product like ChatGPT Pro can exist in this world because it being incapable of consistent, net-positive productive output isn't actually a barrier to being worth $200/month if consistent net-positive productive output isn't also demanded of the individual or organization it is augmenting. The macroeconomic climate of the next ~ten years is going to hit some people and companies like a truck.
- airstrike 2y ago
  > The macroeconomic climate of the next ~ten years is going to hit some people and companies like a truck. Who's to say the frothy American economy doesn't last another 50 years while the rest of the world keeps limping along?
  - talldayo 2y ago
    At the risk of putting too fine a point on it, I'd probably say China.
    - airstrike 2y ago
      China is struggling. Low growth, high unemployment, huge debt from infrastructure spending, weakening capital markets and real estate...
      - phil917 2y ago
        Don't forget the massive population decline set to literally halve the population in the next 70 years...
        lossolo 2y ago
        I wouldn’t consider it a major problem, especially with the coming robotic revolution. Even if the population declines by half, that would still leave 700 million people so twice the population of the U.S. According to predictions, the first signs of demographic challenges are expected to appear in about 15–20 years from now. That’s a long time, and a lot can change in two decades. Just compare the world in 2004 to today. It's a major mistake to underestimate your competition.
        airstrike 2y ago
        > the coming robotic revolution That's a long ways out. We're barely past the first innings of the chatbot revolution and it's already struggling to keep going. Robotics are way more complex because physics can be cruel.
        lossolo 2y ago
        https://www.physicalintelligence.company/blog/pi0?blog https://www.physicalintelligence.company/blog/pi0?blog Show me what was possible 20 years ago versus what we can do now. I think you have enough imagination to envision what might be possible 20 years from now.
      - lossolo 2y ago
        > Low growth For 2024 prediction is 2.6% US and 4.8% China. I don't see how it's low compared to US. > high unemployment 5.1% China vs 4.1% USA > huge debt from infrastructure spending What do you mean by "huge" and compared to whom? The U.S. is currently running a $2 trillion deficit per year, which is about 6% of GDP, with only a fraction allocated to investments. > weakening capital markets and real estate China's economy operates differently from that of the U.S. Currently, China records monthly trade surpluses ranging between $80 billion and $100 billion. The real estate sector indeed presents challenges, leading the government to inject funds into local government to manage the resulting debt. The effectiveness of these measures remains to be seen. There is a lot of wishful thinking on HN regarding the rivalry between China and the U.S
SoftTalker 2y ago
I don't really follow this line of thinking. $200 is nothing—nothing—in the context of the fully loaded cost of an employee for a month (at least, for any sort of employee who would benefit from using an LLM).

$200 per month means it must be good enough at your job to replicate and replace a meaningful fraction of your total work. Valid? For coding, probably. For other purposes I remain on the fence.

avgDev 2y ago

I don't trust it for coding either.

015a 2y ago

The reality is more like: The frothy american economy over the past 20 years has created an unnaturally large number of individuals and organizations with high net worth who don't actually engage in productive output. A product like ChatGPT Pro can exist in this world because it being incapable of consistent, net-positive productive output isn't actually a barrier to being worth $200/month if consistent net-positive productive output isn't also demanded of the individual or organization it is augmenting. The macroeconomic climate of the next ~ten years is going to hit some people and companies like a truck.

airstrike 2y ago
> The macroeconomic climate of the next ~ten years is going to hit some people and companies like a truck. Who's to say the frothy American economy doesn't last another 50 years while the rest of the world keeps limping along?
- talldayo 2y ago
  At the risk of putting too fine a point on it, I'd probably say China.
  - airstrike 2y ago
    China is struggling. Low growth, high unemployment, huge debt from infrastructure spending, weakening capital markets and real estate...
    - phil917 2y ago
      Don't forget the massive population decline set to literally halve the population in the next 70 years...
      - lossolo 2y ago
        I wouldn’t consider it a major problem, especially with the coming robotic revolution. Even if the population declines by half, that would still leave 700 million people so twice the population of the U.S. According to predictions, the first signs of demographic challenges are expected to appear in about 15–20 years from now. That’s a long time, and a lot can change in two decades. Just compare the world in 2004 to today. It's a major mistake to underestimate your competition.
        airstrike 2y ago
        > the coming robotic revolution That's a long ways out. We're barely past the first innings of the chatbot revolution and it's already struggling to keep going. Robotics are way more complex because physics can be cruel.
        lossolo 2y ago
        https://www.physicalintelligence.company/blog/pi0?blog https://www.physicalintelligence.company/blog/pi0?blog Show me what was possible 20 years ago versus what we can do now. I think you have enough imagination to envision what might be possible 20 years from now.
    - lossolo 2y ago
      > Low growth For 2024 prediction is 2.6% US and 4.8% China. I don't see how it's low compared to US. > high unemployment 5.1% China vs 4.1% USA > huge debt from infrastructure spending What do you mean by "huge" and compared to whom? The U.S. is currently running a $2 trillion deficit per year, which is about 6% of GDP, with only a fraction allocated to investments. > weakening capital markets and real estate China's economy operates differently from that of the U.S. Currently, China records monthly trade surpluses ranging between $80 billion and $100 billion. The real estate sector indeed presents challenges, leading the government to inject funds into local government to manage the resulting debt. The effectiveness of these measures remains to be seen. There is a lot of wishful thinking on HN regarding the rivalry between China and the U.S

SoftTalker 2y ago

I don't really follow this line of thinking. $200 is nothing—nothing—in the context of the fully loaded cost of an employee for a month (at least, for any sort of employee who would benefit from using an LLM).