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I imagine it's hard to quantify "profit" with such a research-driven org. It's like penciling out the profitability of the metaverse after years of $XX billion
by bbor 2y ago
I imagine it's hard to quantify "profit" with such a research-driven org. It's like penciling out the profitability of the metaverse after years of $XX billion dollar losses. In general I get the sense that Waymo is more of a diverse investment than a pure ride-hailing play; for example, as of 2020 they were working for Volvo, Chrysler, Jaguar, and Nissan[1], presumably for $$$.
It's also worth remembering that Zoox exists (Amazon's more futuristic self-driving car play, no steering wheel at all), and has not at all gone the way of Alexa/the Dodo bird (yet). I expect them to make a big splash sometime in the coming decade, personally.
That is, of course, assuming they survive regulatory capture by Tesla, which would need a miracle or an unfair advantage to beat these two at this point, even if they finally follow the science on the need for LiDAR. Another big unknown is how the electorate will react to self-driving cars becoming more than a novelty; Elon Musk is absolutely correct that a backlash of some kind is inevitable even if the safety stats pencil out, IMHO. Trusting a machine is kind of inherently creepy - see Prof. Weinersmith's lectures on the topic:
- https://www.smbc-comics.com/comic/decisions https://www.smbc-comics.com/comic/decisions
- https://www.smbc-comics.com/comic/fsd https://www.smbc-comics.com/comic/fsd
- https://www.smbc-comics.com/comic/self-driving-car-ethics https://www.smbc-comics.com/comic/self-driving-car-ethics
[1] https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidsilver/2020/06/29/waymo-and-volvo-form-exclusive-self-driving-partnership/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidsilver/2020/06/29/waymo-an...
- sixQuarks 2y ago[flagged]
- bbor 2y agoI really didn't expect such a response from HN! I guess the Elon energy is still going strong. Thanks for staying polite though :) probably the only place on the internet where polite convos about such a divisive topic/figure/company are still taking place. Suffice to say, I really don't think drive time comparisons by biased unpaid beta testers is a good way to measure viability in this market. Safety, regulatory cooperation, and ethics branding are going to be paramount, all of which Tesla is known to struggle with, to say the least. Again though, the biggest problem is technical. I think the evidence is objective and clear that LiDAR guarantees a level of safety unattainable with cameras alone. Not only will this slow down development, it also highlights the issues above; how many more "Tesla swerves into a white semi-truck because the sun was reflecting off of it in a weird way" stories could they survive before backlash? Especially when the passengers are random people instead of invested enthusiasts, many of which have their retirement investments tied up in the company's worth. You can laugh at Zoox, but A) based on what...? it's still in the R&D phase, there's no consumer product to laugh at, and B) there's certainly a lot of smart people still working on it, and money pouring in. Again, (AFAICT as an outsider-) it's night-and-day compared to orgs Amazon has abandoned, like Alexa.
- rsanek 2y agoin what markets is tesla able to drive autonomously without any driver in the seat? from what I've read, none.
- teractiveodular 2y agoAnd what makes you believe 13 will finally have decent FSD when the previous 12 attempts using the same hardware did not?
- kernal 2y agoUntil you can hop into the back seat of your Tesla and tell it to drive you somewhere with complete confidence then don't even compare the capabilities of Waymo and Tesla FSD.
- JumpCrisscross 2y ago> Tesla is going to destroy Waymo, they can’t compete You're both wrong. This remains an open question. Tesla has promised a Level 5 product but hasn't delivered; FSD is Level 3. Waymo has a Level 4 product, but it requires an expensive sensor suite. If Tesla can get Level 4 with cameras only, you're right. They win. We currently have no indication they've cracked that. We also have no evidence it's not doable with current technology.
- ra7 2y agoSlight correction: FSD is Level 2, not Level 3.
- thrownv7032g 2y agoDid the Tesla take the highway and the Waymo not?
- cozzyd 2y agoThat's what it looks like... also looks like the Tesla was speeding on the highway. Probably should get an automatic speeding ticket...