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Learning to consistently win nethack completely changed my intuition for low chance risk. Common actions that are 99% reliable but with serious consequences for
by giraffe_lady 2y ago
Learning to consistently win nethack completely changed my intuition for low chance risk. Common actions that are 99% reliable but with serious consequences for failure are sure to be run-losing. Even something 99.9% is too dangerous to do more than a handful of times per run if you're trying to streak.
Of course you don't know these numbers directly unless you get deep into the wiki/source. But you don't know the odds when driving on a rainy night either.
- crznp 2y agoNice! Crossing avalanche terrain (eg: backcountry skiing) is a low chance/high consequence activity. It is easy to learn the wrong thing: I did this before and it was fine, therefore it is safe. You counter that with observations, forecasts and incident reports, but intuition based on personal experience leads you astray. A game is much better because you can fail and you just have to restart the game. Make an RDR2 mod. (edit: more intuitive anyway. It might not be easy to accurately show different snow conditions while also being fun to play)