6 ms·

I feel this way about AI. Oh wait, AI is actually an existential risk to humanity, also.

by zadler 2y ago

Retric 2y ago
Generative AI is hardly an existential risk. There’s huge fears around AGI, but that’s not what people are building.
- gbnwl 2y ago
  There’s huge fears around AGI, but that’s not what people are building. Everyone is trying to build this.
  - Retric 2y ago
    “Trying” is an overly generous interpretation of what’s going on. Training an LLM is not actually working on AGI just as people building skyscrapers aren’t getting to the moon. It’s an inherent limitation on the approach.
    - gbnwl 2y ago
      Training LLMs is not the only thing people are trying. They dominate the public attention right now but there are people everywhere trying all kinds of approaches. Here's one from IBM: https://research.ibm.com/topics/neuro-symbolic-ai https://research.ibm.com/topics/neuro-symbolic-ai First sentence: "We see Neuro-symbolic AI as a pathway to achieve artificial general intelligence"
      - Retric 2y ago
        I agree some people are doing novel work, but that’s a long way from “Everyone”.
        gbnwl 2y ago
        Everyone is trying to get to AGI, and yes mostly through LLMs for now. You said you don't believe LLMs are capable of ever getting there, so I offered a link showing people are trying other things as well. My point was never "Everyone is doing novel, non-LLM work towards AGI". But everyone is in fact trying to get to AGI: Google: https://www.fastcompany.com/91233846/noam-shazeer-back-at-google-agi https://www.fastcompany.com/91233846/noam-shazeer-back-at-go... https://deepmind.google/research/publications/66938/ https://deepmind.google/research/publications/66938/ Microsoft: https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/bing/do-more-with-ai/artificial-general-intelligence?form=MA13KP https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/bing/do-more-with-ai/artific... Meta: https://www.theverge.com/2024/1/18/24042354/mark-zuckerberg-meta-agi-reorg-interview https://www.theverge.com/2024/1/18/24042354/mark-zuckerberg-... Salesforce: https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnkoetsier/2023/09/12/salesforce-building-toward-artificial-general-intelligence-for-business-ceo-marc-benioff/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnkoetsier/2023/09/12/salesfo... Not to mention obvious suspects (OpenAI, Anthropic etc). Just because you think it won't work doesn't mean they're not trying. Everyone is trying to get to AGI.
        Retric 2y ago
        OpenAI has specifically said LLM’s aren’t a path to AGI, though they think they have utility in understanding how society can and should interact with a potential AGI, especially from a policy perspective. Your other examples are giant companies with many focus who can trivially pay lip service to fundamental research without spending any particular effort. Take your link: “Benioff outlined four waves of enterprise AI, the first two of which are currently real, available, and shipping: Predictive Generative Autonomous and agents Artificial general intelligence” That’s a long term mission statement not actual effort into AGI. So if you’re backing down from actual work to “trying to get to AGI” to include such aspirational statements then sure, I’m also working on AGI and immortality.
        gbnwl 2y ago
        Please, before we discuss this further, and I would like to, provide some idea of what would qualify as an "actual effort into AGI" for you.
    - bondarchuk 2y ago
      > It’s an inherent limitation on the approach. What's your evidence for this?
      - Retric 2y ago
        AGI needs to be able to generalize to real world tasks like self driving without needing task specific help from its creators. But the current LLM process separates learning from interacting and the learning process is based on huge volumes of text. It’s possible to bolt on specific capabilities like say a chess engine, but you’re now building something different not an LLM.
- bondarchuk 2y ago
  Look at (the comments on) the Genie announcement on the front page today or yesterday, and earlier generative "world models". People are itching to use those kind of models for the internal world representation of autonomous robots. More generally the fact that a model is "generative" does not mean it can not become an effective component in or pathway to AGI.
- zadler 2y ago
  Either way it’s headed off the rails. Sloppification of everything, followed by eventual machine takeover.
- terminalbraid 2y ago
  I assure you people are very much trying to build the titular Torment Zone in the hit scifi novel "Don't Build the Torment Zone"

I feel this way about AI. Oh wait, AI is actually an existential risk to humanity, also.

by zadler 2y ago

I feel this way about AI. Oh wait, AI is actually an existential risk to humanity, also.

Retric 2y ago

Generative AI is hardly an existential risk. There’s huge fears around AGI, but that’s not what people are building.

gbnwl 2y ago
There’s huge fears around AGI, but that’s not what people are building. Everyone is trying to build this.
- Retric 2y ago
  “Trying” is an overly generous interpretation of what’s going on. Training an LLM is not actually working on AGI just as people building skyscrapers aren’t getting to the moon. It’s an inherent limitation on the approach.
  - gbnwl 2y ago
    Training LLMs is not the only thing people are trying. They dominate the public attention right now but there are people everywhere trying all kinds of approaches. Here's one from IBM: https://research.ibm.com/topics/neuro-symbolic-ai https://research.ibm.com/topics/neuro-symbolic-ai First sentence: "We see Neuro-symbolic AI as a pathway to achieve artificial general intelligence"
    - Retric 2y ago
      I agree some people are doing novel work, but that’s a long way from “Everyone”.
      - gbnwl 2y ago
        Everyone is trying to get to AGI, and yes mostly through LLMs for now. You said you don't believe LLMs are capable of ever getting there, so I offered a link showing people are trying other things as well. My point was never "Everyone is doing novel, non-LLM work towards AGI". But everyone is in fact trying to get to AGI: Google: https://www.fastcompany.com/91233846/noam-shazeer-back-at-google-agi https://www.fastcompany.com/91233846/noam-shazeer-back-at-go... https://deepmind.google/research/publications/66938/ https://deepmind.google/research/publications/66938/ Microsoft: https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/bing/do-more-with-ai/artificial-general-intelligence?form=MA13KP https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/bing/do-more-with-ai/artific... Meta: https://www.theverge.com/2024/1/18/24042354/mark-zuckerberg-meta-agi-reorg-interview https://www.theverge.com/2024/1/18/24042354/mark-zuckerberg-... Salesforce: https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnkoetsier/2023/09/12/salesforce-building-toward-artificial-general-intelligence-for-business-ceo-marc-benioff/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnkoetsier/2023/09/12/salesfo... Not to mention obvious suspects (OpenAI, Anthropic etc). Just because you think it won't work doesn't mean they're not trying. Everyone is trying to get to AGI.
        Retric 2y ago
        OpenAI has specifically said LLM’s aren’t a path to AGI, though they think they have utility in understanding how society can and should interact with a potential AGI, especially from a policy perspective. Your other examples are giant companies with many focus who can trivially pay lip service to fundamental research without spending any particular effort. Take your link: “Benioff outlined four waves of enterprise AI, the first two of which are currently real, available, and shipping: Predictive Generative Autonomous and agents Artificial general intelligence” That’s a long term mission statement not actual effort into AGI. So if you’re backing down from actual work to “trying to get to AGI” to include such aspirational statements then sure, I’m also working on AGI and immortality.
        gbnwl 2y ago
        Please, before we discuss this further, and I would like to, provide some idea of what would qualify as an "actual effort into AGI" for you.
  - bondarchuk 2y ago
    > It’s an inherent limitation on the approach. What's your evidence for this?
    - Retric 2y ago
      AGI needs to be able to generalize to real world tasks like self driving without needing task specific help from its creators. But the current LLM process separates learning from interacting and the learning process is based on huge volumes of text. It’s possible to bolt on specific capabilities like say a chess engine, but you’re now building something different not an LLM.
bondarchuk 2y ago
Look at (the comments on) the Genie announcement on the front page today or yesterday, and earlier generative "world models". People are itching to use those kind of models for the internal world representation of autonomous robots. More generally the fact that a model is "generative" does not mean it can not become an effective component in or pathway to AGI.
zadler 2y ago
Either way it’s headed off the rails. Sloppification of everything, followed by eventual machine takeover.
terminalbraid 2y ago
I assure you people are very much trying to build the titular Torment Zone in the hit scifi novel "Don't Build the Torment Zone"