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Are there theories why Trump getting elected caused such a spike? Expected sanctions devaluing other currencies, higher risk of conflict (eg Iran -Israel/US wa

Are there theories why Trump getting elected caused such a spike? Expected sanctions devaluing other currencies, higher risk of conflict (eg Iran -Israel/US war) causing economic instability, ... ?

kgwgk 2y ago
https://time.com/7173421/what-donald-trump-election-win-means-for-crypto/ https://time.com/7173421/what-donald-trump-election-win-mean... ---- Trump spoke glowingly about crypto this year on the campaign trail, despite casting skepticism upon it for years. At the Bitcoin conference in Nashville in July, Trump floated the idea of establishing a federal Bitcoin reserve, and stressed the importance of bringing more Bitcoin mining operations to the U.S. Perhaps most importantly, Trump vowed to oust Gary Gensler, the chair of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), who has brought many lawsuits against crypto projects for allegedly violating securities laws. Gensler is a widely-reviled figure in the crypto industry, with many accusing him of stifling innovation. Gensler, conversely, argued that it was his job to protect consumers from the massive crypto collapses that unfolded in 2022, including Terra Luna and FTX. Gensler’s term isn’t up until 2026, but some analysts expect him to resign once Trump takes office, as previous SEC chairs have done after the President that appointed them lost their elections. A change to SEC leadership could allow many more crypto products to enter mainstream financial markets. For the past few years, the SEC had been hesitant to approve crypto ETFs: investment vehicles that allow people to bet on crypto without actually holding it. But a judge forced Gensler’s hand, bringing Bitcoin ETFs onto the market in January. Now, under a friendlier SEC, ETFs based on smaller cryptocurrencies like Solana and XRP may be next. Many crypto enthusiasts are also excited by Trump’s alliance with Elon Musk, who has long championed cryptocurrencies on social media. On election night, Dogecoin, Musk’s preferred meme coin, spiked 25% to 21 cents.
- smeej 2y ago
  Gensler has confirmed his intention is to resign on January 20.
fer 2y ago
He's been crypto-friendly during the campaign, but last spike is probably related to this[0], which solidifies state support for what was born as a state-independent asset. [0] https://apnews.com/article/sec-chair-atkins-gensler-investors-financial-markets-d1c544f1846071b33c75b9f2dd0c1ba4 https://apnews.com/article/sec-chair-atkins-gensler-investor...
smeej 2y ago
I think it's as simple as expecting his administration not to be outright hostile to the industry, and maybe even encourage its development. Most companies in the space have had "the government could, at any moment, make it nearly impossible for us to continue operating" as an existential risk, so if that risk goes down, the expectation for further innovation and development soars.
- FollowingTheDao 2y ago
  Yes, there will just be more fraud since there will be less regulation and so the fraudsters are drooling.
  - smeej 2y ago
    Maybe there will. But literally everything has fraud, and not every other industry is worth this kind of money, so it seems naïve to attribute it all to fraud.
V__ 2y ago
Because deregulation or non-enforcement means manipulation/pump-and-dump etc. will still be profitable. The market probably believes that Trump will keep his word [1] on this topic. Since Trump could continue to enrich himself using crypto and with guys like Peter Thiel owning him, sorry advising him, that is a common sense interpretation. [1] https://archive.ph/KsI4s#selection-1575.114-1575.206 https://archive.ph/KsI4s#selection-1575.114-1575.206
- ttyprintk 2y ago
  People took what they wanted from his change of heart in July. First, to promise not to spend from a Federal strategic reserve. Later, he mentioned paying down the debt, which his administration was largely responsible for. Finally, he talks about a sovereign wealth fund, which implies he doesn’t plan to buy bitcoin with money.
devjab 2y ago
Weren’t the last spike in crypto prices mostly done by major holders who needed to unload? I admit I don’t follow it very closely but I seem to recall some Danish articles about it essentially being a form of market manipulation largely unrelated to anything that was actually happening in the world. I’m probably wrong though.
- shadowmanif 2y ago
  You are probably partially right but there are many levels to this game. Microstrategy is also running a pyramid scheme. Surely, there are also hedge funds in the space playing all kinds of games. It is interesting how the digital Yuan is rolling out right now as part of HarmonyOS NEXT while the stupid west waste time with these digital currencies that can't function well as actual currency. At the highest level, I suspect this is a brilliant game of currency Kung Fu.
- tasuki 2y ago
  Unloading doesn't increase price. Price is driven by supply and demand. Unloading lowers price. There isn't an "increase price so I can unload" button.
kjrfghslkdjfl 2y ago
[dead]

Are there theories why Trump getting elected caused such a spike? Expected sanctions devaluing other currencies, higher risk of conflict (eg Iran -Israel/US war) causing economic instability, ... ?

kgwgk 2y ago

https://time.com/7173421/what-donald-trump-election-win-means-for-crypto/ https://time.com/7173421/what-donald-trump-election-win-mean... ---- Trump spoke glowingly about crypto this year on the campaign trail, despite casting skepticism upon it for years. At the Bitcoin conference in Nashville in July, Trump floated the idea of establishing a federal Bitcoin reserve, and stressed the importance of bringing more Bitcoin mining operations to the U.S. Perhaps most importantly, Trump vowed to oust Gary Gensler, the chair of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), who has brought many lawsuits against crypto projects for allegedly violating securities laws. Gensler is a widely-reviled figure in the crypto industry, with many accusing him of stifling innovation. Gensler, conversely, argued that it was his job to protect consumers from the massive crypto collapses that unfolded in 2022, including Terra Luna and FTX. Gensler’s term isn’t up until 2026, but some analysts expect him to resign once Trump takes office, as previous SEC chairs have done after the President that appointed them lost their elections. A change to SEC leadership could allow many more crypto products to enter mainstream financial markets. For the past few years, the SEC had been hesitant to approve crypto ETFs: investment vehicles that allow people to bet on crypto without actually holding it. But a judge forced Gensler’s hand, bringing Bitcoin ETFs onto the market in January. Now, under a friendlier SEC, ETFs based on smaller cryptocurrencies like Solana and XRP may be next. Many crypto enthusiasts are also excited by Trump’s alliance with Elon Musk, who has long championed cryptocurrencies on social media. On election night, Dogecoin, Musk’s preferred meme coin, spiked 25% to 21 cents.

smeej 2y ago
Gensler has confirmed his intention is to resign on January 20.

fer 2y ago

He's been crypto-friendly during the campaign, but last spike is probably related to this[0], which solidifies state support for what was born as a state-independent asset. [0] https://apnews.com/article/sec-chair-atkins-gensler-investors-financial-markets-d1c544f1846071b33c75b9f2dd0c1ba4 https://apnews.com/article/sec-chair-atkins-gensler-investor...

smeej 2y ago

I think it's as simple as expecting his administration not to be outright hostile to the industry, and maybe even encourage its development. Most companies in the space have had "the government could, at any moment, make it nearly impossible for us to continue operating" as an existential risk, so if that risk goes down, the expectation for further innovation and development soars.

FollowingTheDao 2y ago
Yes, there will just be more fraud since there will be less regulation and so the fraudsters are drooling.
- smeej 2y ago
  Maybe there will. But literally everything has fraud, and not every other industry is worth this kind of money, so it seems naïve to attribute it all to fraud.

V__ 2y ago

Because deregulation or non-enforcement means manipulation/pump-and-dump etc. will still be profitable. The market probably believes that Trump will keep his word [1] on this topic. Since Trump could continue to enrich himself using crypto and with guys like Peter Thiel owning him, sorry advising him, that is a common sense interpretation. [1] https://archive.ph/KsI4s#selection-1575.114-1575.206 https://archive.ph/KsI4s#selection-1575.114-1575.206

ttyprintk 2y ago
People took what they wanted from his change of heart in July. First, to promise not to spend from a Federal strategic reserve. Later, he mentioned paying down the debt, which his administration was largely responsible for. Finally, he talks about a sovereign wealth fund, which implies he doesn’t plan to buy bitcoin with money.

devjab 2y ago

Weren’t the last spike in crypto prices mostly done by major holders who needed to unload? I admit I don’t follow it very closely but I seem to recall some Danish articles about it essentially being a form of market manipulation largely unrelated to anything that was actually happening in the world. I’m probably wrong though.

shadowmanif 2y ago
You are probably partially right but there are many levels to this game. Microstrategy is also running a pyramid scheme. Surely, there are also hedge funds in the space playing all kinds of games. It is interesting how the digital Yuan is rolling out right now as part of HarmonyOS NEXT while the stupid west waste time with these digital currencies that can't function well as actual currency. At the highest level, I suspect this is a brilliant game of currency Kung Fu.
tasuki 2y ago
Unloading doesn't increase price. Price is driven by supply and demand. Unloading lowers price. There isn't an "increase price so I can unload" button.

kjrfghslkdjfl 2y ago

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