3 ms·

Seriously, just looking at the examples of "stagnated and failing economies" like Japan should be a give away that this measure is total BS. In Germany a life

by mrtksn 2y ago

Seriously, just looking at the examples of "stagnated and failing economies" like Japan should be a give away that this measure is total BS. In Germany a life saving brain surgery creates 5K USD of economic activity and the same surgery creates 500K USD of economic activity in the USA. True story, a YouTuber I'm following recently had her mother operated in Germany and then again in the USA and she made a video about the experience and the numbers: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G-p1nP6hH6U https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G-p1nP6hH6U This obsession with GDP isn't healthy, among other obsessions like the "Number of gigantic companies" which is supposed to show that you are falling back in technology if you don't have extremely large companies by market capitalization metric. It worries me because it's BS and BS can last just till a point. What happens if at one point in the future people start demanding benefiting from all that riches and success? I'm worried because I don't believe in(goodness of?) revolutions and the situation makes me anxious that the west with the US in particular is headed to some kind of revolution. They had one with the last election I guess but the revolutionaries appear to be pushing for the extreme version of the same thing which eventually might collapse with another revolution with the opposite thing like what UK ended up getting as a Labour landslide after Libertarian landslide.

penguinburglar 2y ago
> What happens if at one point in the future people start demanding benefiting from all that riches and success? With any luck, what will happen is that future people will benefit from all those riches and success.
- mrtksn 2y ago
  The problem is that those riches and success is just on paper. They are projections and IOUs. It's like the property market, if everyone has so much money the number of people who can live in Malibu doesn't actually go up. Just the prices of homes in Malibu go up. No matter what the numbers in the bank account says, the number of people who can get the good stuff will be limited to the actual infrastructure and actual production output. If Americans get even richer, it will simply mean that more millionaires will room share in SV. EU and Japan, largely cited as economical failure, happen to provide just as good or even better living conditions to their citizens because their infrastructure and actual production output is as good or better than the US.
  - taneq 2y ago
    > No matter what the numbers in the bank account says, the number of people who can get the good stuff will be limited to the actual infrastructure and actual production output. Only if you define "the good stuff" as "the best stuff." If you define "the good stuff" relative to a subsistence farming or hunter-gatherer lifestyle, the median person today in a developed country is arguably richer than the richest person in town 50 years ago, the richest person in the country 100 years ago, and the richest person on the planet 500 years ago.
    - mrtksn 2y ago
      Let's pretend that we don't have a time machine and stick with comparing what we have today.
      - taneq 2y ago
        Translation: I don't want 'the good stuff', I want 'better stuff than other people.' You're not arguing for quality of life, you're arguing for privilege.
        mrtksn 2y ago
        I don't argue any of these stuff
    - Kephael 2y ago
      This is nonsense, you could buy a nice car and a home 50 years while working at the post office. Because we have faster computers and smartphones does not make us wealthier.
    - meiraleal 2y ago
      What would make a median person today, working 8 hours a day, 5 days a week, richer than the richest person in the country 100 years ago?
trolleski 2y ago
100% agreed, especially when you print money the GDP is evaluated in, there's no ceiling! What can be bought for money and in what quality, that's a different story... Purchasing Power of Money is what really matters. It's still good in some European countries, but with the current policies, EU has set itself up for times of poverty.
vasco 2y ago
> I'm worried because I don't believe in(goodness of?) revolutions That's strange, revolutions have been the some of the most acute moments that improved things for the world population and brought rights to the common people. I'd definitely not want to live through one because it sucks for those during it, but it's great for those that come after.
- mrtksn 2y ago
  I'm yet to see a revolution that improves anything. They certainly destroy a lot and change who's the elite though. Any benefit, IMHO, comes purely from starting over. Any revolution benefit can be achieved through debt purge, elevating those in precarious state and break any fast feedback loops that led us to that point.
  - vasco 2y ago
    > I'm yet to see a revolution that improves anything > Any benefit, IMHO, comes purely from starting over So you do see how it improves something :) As for examples, read a bit of history, they are not hard to find.
    - mrtksn 2y ago
      Yeah that’s like improving the overcrowding issues in prisons by reducing the standard for capital punishment. I should read some history books of that, surely.
      - vasco 2y ago
        No, it's not like that. In any case go through this list and tell me you cannot find a single beneficial one: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_revolutions_and_rebellions https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_revolutions_and_rebell... Here, I'll leave you one: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carnation_Revolution https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carnation_Revolution I don't even think you're wrong in your dislike of revolutions, like I said, I was clear in saying I don't want to live through one, but the extreme view that nothing good every happened is simply, blind.
rdm_blackhole 2y ago
Revolutions are neither good nor bad, they just are. It's what you do after that matters. If you keep on repeating the same mistake and never change the systems that led to the political instability in the first place, then you are bound to have the same results.
- mrtksn 2y ago
  I agree. I'm not a fan of revolutions because the process itself is quite damaging - no matter what comes after it. I can definitely enjoy a good revolution if I'm not at the receiving end of it though.
refurb 2y ago
In Germany a life saving brain surgery creates 5K USD of economic activity and the same surgery creates 500K USD of economic activity in the USA. It doesn’t because the insurer doesn’t pay $500k. Not to mention that if something costs $10k in the US that costs $5k in Europe, that $5k that doesn’t get spent on something else (which would also increase GDP)
- mrtksn 2y ago
  Okay how much do they pay? Is it closer to 5K or 500K?
  - refurb 2y ago
    Closer to $5k. US in-patient costs are about double that of the European average. An ICU bed that is $1,000 per day in Europe, is around $2,000 in the US. But the hospital will have a charge master price of $10,000 per day. Insurance company negotiate agreed charges that are often 80-90% lower. That’s the number that contributes to GDP.
    - mrtksn 2y ago
      Yes that's the average spent per citizen which doesn't say that the brain surgery will cost just the double of EU. Many Americans apparently don't seek medical help if they feel like they can wait it out, hesitate when call an ambulance etc. Which is not a thing in Europe, its not something you give it a consideration from financial standpoint. If you are poor and you twisted your ankle, you call ambulance. If you have a rash that bothers you and you are poor and unemployed you still go to the dermatologist. If you are rich, you can seek private care(yes, many countries do have private hospitals where you can get an expensive care if you like to have hotel-like room etc). Anyway, that's another topic and you are right that for the GDP purposes the spent per capita is a good metric. Which is still on the point, the same service costs at least twice as much resulting in useless numbers if you are trying to use GDP as a productivity metric(or anything humane, in fact). We see a similar thing in Turkey for example when you use PPP(which is supposed to be an improvement). Turkey's PPP is quite high now, meaning that the Turkish lira is strong and on average Turks are supposed to be slightly richer than neighboring EU country Bulgaria. In reality, Turks are miserable because some basic stuff is taxed to extremes and the market is captured by a few groups and to achieve a Bulgarian lifestyle in Turkey you actually have to pay 2X or 3X. Maybe we just should stop looking and these stats for a proxy to other stuff altogether. They don't work, just use whatever you are looking directly.

by mrtksn 2y ago

penguinburglar 2y ago

> What happens if at one point in the future people start demanding benefiting from all that riches and success? With any luck, what will happen is that future people will benefit from all those riches and success.

mrtksn 2y ago
The problem is that those riches and success is just on paper. They are projections and IOUs. It's like the property market, if everyone has so much money the number of people who can live in Malibu doesn't actually go up. Just the prices of homes in Malibu go up. No matter what the numbers in the bank account says, the number of people who can get the good stuff will be limited to the actual infrastructure and actual production output. If Americans get even richer, it will simply mean that more millionaires will room share in SV. EU and Japan, largely cited as economical failure, happen to provide just as good or even better living conditions to their citizens because their infrastructure and actual production output is as good or better than the US.
- taneq 2y ago
  > No matter what the numbers in the bank account says, the number of people who can get the good stuff will be limited to the actual infrastructure and actual production output. Only if you define "the good stuff" as "the best stuff." If you define "the good stuff" relative to a subsistence farming or hunter-gatherer lifestyle, the median person today in a developed country is arguably richer than the richest person in town 50 years ago, the richest person in the country 100 years ago, and the richest person on the planet 500 years ago.
  - mrtksn 2y ago
    Let's pretend that we don't have a time machine and stick with comparing what we have today.
    - taneq 2y ago
      Translation: I don't want 'the good stuff', I want 'better stuff than other people.' You're not arguing for quality of life, you're arguing for privilege.
      - mrtksn 2y ago
        I don't argue any of these stuff
  - Kephael 2y ago
    This is nonsense, you could buy a nice car and a home 50 years while working at the post office. Because we have faster computers and smartphones does not make us wealthier.
  - meiraleal 2y ago
    What would make a median person today, working 8 hours a day, 5 days a week, richer than the richest person in the country 100 years ago?

trolleski 2y ago

100% agreed, especially when you print money the GDP is evaluated in, there's no ceiling! What can be bought for money and in what quality, that's a different story... Purchasing Power of Money is what really matters. It's still good in some European countries, but with the current policies, EU has set itself up for times of poverty.

vasco 2y ago

> I'm worried because I don't believe in(goodness of?) revolutions That's strange, revolutions have been the some of the most acute moments that improved things for the world population and brought rights to the common people. I'd definitely not want to live through one because it sucks for those during it, but it's great for those that come after.

mrtksn 2y ago
I'm yet to see a revolution that improves anything. They certainly destroy a lot and change who's the elite though. Any benefit, IMHO, comes purely from starting over. Any revolution benefit can be achieved through debt purge, elevating those in precarious state and break any fast feedback loops that led us to that point.
- vasco 2y ago
  > I'm yet to see a revolution that improves anything > Any benefit, IMHO, comes purely from starting over So you do see how it improves something :) As for examples, read a bit of history, they are not hard to find.
  - mrtksn 2y ago
    Yeah that’s like improving the overcrowding issues in prisons by reducing the standard for capital punishment. I should read some history books of that, surely.
    - vasco 2y ago
      No, it's not like that. In any case go through this list and tell me you cannot find a single beneficial one: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_revolutions_and_rebellions https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_revolutions_and_rebell... Here, I'll leave you one: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carnation_Revolution https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carnation_Revolution I don't even think you're wrong in your dislike of revolutions, like I said, I was clear in saying I don't want to live through one, but the extreme view that nothing good every happened is simply, blind.

rdm_blackhole 2y ago

Revolutions are neither good nor bad, they just are. It's what you do after that matters. If you keep on repeating the same mistake and never change the systems that led to the political instability in the first place, then you are bound to have the same results.

mrtksn 2y ago
I agree. I'm not a fan of revolutions because the process itself is quite damaging - no matter what comes after it. I can definitely enjoy a good revolution if I'm not at the receiving end of it though.

refurb 2y ago

In Germany a life saving brain surgery creates 5K USD of economic activity and the same surgery creates 500K USD of economic activity in the USA. It doesn’t because the insurer doesn’t pay $500k. Not to mention that if something costs $10k in the US that costs $5k in Europe, that $5k that doesn’t get spent on something else (which would also increase GDP)

mrtksn 2y ago
Okay how much do they pay? Is it closer to 5K or 500K?
- refurb 2y ago
  Closer to $5k. US in-patient costs are about double that of the European average. An ICU bed that is $1,000 per day in Europe, is around $2,000 in the US. But the hospital will have a charge master price of $10,000 per day. Insurance company negotiate agreed charges that are often 80-90% lower. That’s the number that contributes to GDP.
  - mrtksn 2y ago
    Yes that's the average spent per citizen which doesn't say that the brain surgery will cost just the double of EU. Many Americans apparently don't seek medical help if they feel like they can wait it out, hesitate when call an ambulance etc. Which is not a thing in Europe, its not something you give it a consideration from financial standpoint. If you are poor and you twisted your ankle, you call ambulance. If you have a rash that bothers you and you are poor and unemployed you still go to the dermatologist. If you are rich, you can seek private care(yes, many countries do have private hospitals where you can get an expensive care if you like to have hotel-like room etc). Anyway, that's another topic and you are right that for the GDP purposes the spent per capita is a good metric. Which is still on the point, the same service costs at least twice as much resulting in useless numbers if you are trying to use GDP as a productivity metric(or anything humane, in fact). We see a similar thing in Turkey for example when you use PPP(which is supposed to be an improvement). Turkey's PPP is quite high now, meaning that the Turkish lira is strong and on average Turks are supposed to be slightly richer than neighboring EU country Bulgaria. In reality, Turks are miserable because some basic stuff is taxed to extremes and the market is captured by a few groups and to achieve a Bulgarian lifestyle in Turkey you actually have to pay 2X or 3X. Maybe we just should stop looking and these stats for a proxy to other stuff altogether. They don't work, just use whatever you are looking directly.