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The entire economy outside of agriculture and real estate is basically "bullshit", if you really think about it. The ratio of bullshit to everything else seems

The entire economy outside of agriculture and real estate is basically "bullshit", if you really think about it. The ratio of bullshit to everything else seems to increase over time, though, as a general trend. It's probably correlated to technology.

paulryanrogers 2y ago
This seems reductive. Things do get more abstract, yet there is a spectrum of naunce: oil, vehicles, clothing, etc.
- xyzzy4747 2y ago
  For countless millennia, humans didn't need anything more except food, some very basic tools, a place to live, and other humans. You could argue that everything since then is layers and layers of bullshit. Bitcoin is just another one.
  - paulryanrogers 2y ago
    I'm arguing the general point is shallow and not useful. IMO BitCoin is designed to fail as a currency with it's mining costs, and a bad idea as an investment since exchanging it is such a house of cards. Never mind that holding any significant quantity invites dangerous people with wrenches.
  - Ekaros 2y ago
    Humans did also need fuel(wood mostly). Often this was reasonably easy to get. But still involved labour. As such storage of energy that can be released at will do have value think of coal, oil and gas. These as such are not "bullshit". Water might be other one. But now that is cheap enough, even with desalination.
sampullman 2y ago
If agriculture is required, so is shipping. I'm not so sure about real estate.
mbil 2y ago
Agriculture and real estate would not exist in their current forms without the mammoth apparatus of the entire economy surrounding them. Maybe you mean food and shelter are the only non-bull parts of the economy. Nomadic bands might find them bullshittish. And grain stores require soldiers to guard them, soldiers require weapons, weapons require metallurgy, mining, surveying, transport, etc. Pretty soon there’s a whole lot of something but I don’t know that it’s bullshit. It feels more like layers of increasing abstraction away from the source of the value: energy.
- xyzzy4747 2y ago
  Even with nomads, they had territory they could live in or not live in, based on the existence of other tribes. I was clumping that in with real estate. Even animals do this (for example wolves). And obviously in the feudal system land was a big deal. And yes technological arms races exist but they are often power games between governments, although in some cases a tribe could become a genocide victim if nobody wants to participate in the military effort. So in that case I agree it's maybe not bullshit, but it depends on the behavior of the neighbors. Energy is a free source of energy from the sun plus it gets stored for free in various ways (such as vegetation). So that doesn't really have to be factored into the discussion.
gmays 2y ago
Real estate can be speculative as well. A better way to state that might be "things outside of productive assets and services" are increasingly speculative. The bright side of this that has me excited is what seems to be a growing sense of optimism about the future, driven by AI entering the public conscious, Space X's "rocket catch" etc. There seems to be a growing belief that the future can and will be better, more so than a decade ago.
- BlueTemplar 2y ago
  You seem to be very confident about your memory of a decade ago. And wasn't the first SpaceX rocket retrieval even more impressive, and a decade ago ? EDIT : Yep, in 2015. (And today, a rocket beat a record : doing its 24th flight and retrieval.)

paulryanrogers 2y ago

This seems reductive. Things do get more abstract, yet there is a spectrum of naunce: oil, vehicles, clothing, etc.

xyzzy4747 2y ago
For countless millennia, humans didn't need anything more except food, some very basic tools, a place to live, and other humans. You could argue that everything since then is layers and layers of bullshit. Bitcoin is just another one.
- paulryanrogers 2y ago
  I'm arguing the general point is shallow and not useful. IMO BitCoin is designed to fail as a currency with it's mining costs, and a bad idea as an investment since exchanging it is such a house of cards. Never mind that holding any significant quantity invites dangerous people with wrenches.
- Ekaros 2y ago
  Humans did also need fuel(wood mostly). Often this was reasonably easy to get. But still involved labour. As such storage of energy that can be released at will do have value think of coal, oil and gas. These as such are not "bullshit". Water might be other one. But now that is cheap enough, even with desalination.

sampullman 2y ago

If agriculture is required, so is shipping. I'm not so sure about real estate.

mbil 2y ago

Agriculture and real estate would not exist in their current forms without the mammoth apparatus of the entire economy surrounding them. Maybe you mean food and shelter are the only non-bull parts of the economy. Nomadic bands might find them bullshittish. And grain stores require soldiers to guard them, soldiers require weapons, weapons require metallurgy, mining, surveying, transport, etc. Pretty soon there’s a whole lot of something but I don’t know that it’s bullshit. It feels more like layers of increasing abstraction away from the source of the value: energy.

xyzzy4747 2y ago
Even with nomads, they had territory they could live in or not live in, based on the existence of other tribes. I was clumping that in with real estate. Even animals do this (for example wolves). And obviously in the feudal system land was a big deal. And yes technological arms races exist but they are often power games between governments, although in some cases a tribe could become a genocide victim if nobody wants to participate in the military effort. So in that case I agree it's maybe not bullshit, but it depends on the behavior of the neighbors. Energy is a free source of energy from the sun plus it gets stored for free in various ways (such as vegetation). So that doesn't really have to be factored into the discussion.

gmays 2y ago

Real estate can be speculative as well. A better way to state that might be "things outside of productive assets and services" are increasingly speculative. The bright side of this that has me excited is what seems to be a growing sense of optimism about the future, driven by AI entering the public conscious, Space X's "rocket catch" etc. There seems to be a growing belief that the future can and will be better, more so than a decade ago.

BlueTemplar 2y ago
You seem to be very confident about your memory of a decade ago. And wasn't the first SpaceX rocket retrieval even more impressive, and a decade ago ? EDIT : Yep, in 2015. (And today, a rocket beat a record : doing its 24th flight and retrieval.)