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Well, let's go: > low unemployment In an economy where you can easily deliver packages or drive uber, there will always be close to zero unemployment. This nu

Well, let's go: > low unemployment In an economy where you can easily deliver packages or drive uber, there will always be close to zero unemployment. This number stopped making sense a few years ago. > strong consumer spending In a high inflation environment, one has to consume "strongly" just to maintain the same standards of living. > average income increasing at a rate higher than inflation If you underreport inflation, then the average income will increase faster. But even if not, average is not what you and I receive, and it is determined by some people making lots of money while others have stagnating salaries. > majority is doing better than most years You cannot prove this from the above points. Average income doesn't mean that the majority is doing better. Something called inequality will not allow that to happen. > They might not feel that way though That is pop psychology at its worst. Nobody cares about feelings, you just need to look at the numbers in a critical way.

llamaimperative 2y ago
> In an economy where you can easily deliver packages or drive uber, there will always be close to zero unemployment. This number stopped making sense a few years ago. Part time employment is roughly where it was in absolute numbers (not even per capita) in 2009. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS12600000 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS12600000 > In a high inflation environment, one has to consume "strongly" just to maintain the same standards of living. You're wrong here too. Here's a chart that's inflation-adjusted: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEC96 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEC96 > If you underreport inflation Ah I see... your entire worldview is predicated on just assuming different facts than what your interlocutors are. Feel free to substantiate this rather fundamental claim. > That is pop psychology at its worst. Nobody cares about feelings, you just need to look at the numbers in a critical way. "Look at the numbers in a critical way" is an interesting framing of "make shit up."
- coliveira 2y ago
  [flagged]
  - llamaimperative 2y ago
    wat
sangnoir 2y ago
> In a high inflation environment, one has to consume "strongly" just to maintain the same standards of living. Strong disagree: you can't spend what you don't have (or can't borrow), so spending is a vital signal. There's a natural experiment that just happened that refutes your argument: after Covid, most of the world had high inflation (with some actual recessions), but the US did better than everyone else, with stronger American consumer spending helping the recovery (leading to more jobs to service the strong demand). Your argument falls apart when you consider why UK or French consumers consume as "strongly" to maintain their lifestyles. > If you underreport inflation, then the average income will increase faster. There's no one way to calculate inflation (since this depends on how you choose your 'basket'). But like I said, based on vibes, everything is awful.
- coliveira 2y ago
  > you can't spend what you don't have Yes you can, just borrow more [1]: [1] https://washingtonstatestandard.com/2024/08/26/us-credit-card-debt-continues-to-rise-as-housing-and-other-costs-remain-high-for-the-lowest-earners/ https://washingtonstatestandard.com/2024/08/26/us-credit-car... > Your argument falls apart when you consider why UK or French consumers consume as "strongly" to maintain their lifestyles They don't have access to cheap credit as the US consumer has, and being smarter than Americans they refrain from going into more debt. > There's no one way to calculate inflation Yes, there is, it is just different for lower income earners. Economists just don't want to measure the impact on people who have to spend large part of their salaries on rents, health care, cars, all things with prices that increase higher than official inflation.
  - sangnoir 2y ago
    > Yes you can, just borrow more Did you purposely leave out my parenthetical to use it as a dunk? Borrowers are not dumb (and the amount of debt is also a useful signal on economic health by the way, and right now it's not terrible; definitely not in recession territory) > Yes, there is, it is just different for lower income earners Well, don't leave me hanging - what's the one way to calculate inflation then? Which specific mix of goods and services (and locations) should be used as a national benchmark in THE inflation equation?

llamaimperative 2y ago

> In an economy where you can easily deliver packages or drive uber, there will always be close to zero unemployment. This number stopped making sense a few years ago. Part time employment is roughly where it was in absolute numbers (not even per capita) in 2009. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS12600000 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS12600000 > In a high inflation environment, one has to consume "strongly" just to maintain the same standards of living. You're wrong here too. Here's a chart that's inflation-adjusted: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEC96 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEC96 > If you underreport inflation Ah I see... your entire worldview is predicated on just assuming different facts than what your interlocutors are. Feel free to substantiate this rather fundamental claim. > That is pop psychology at its worst. Nobody cares about feelings, you just need to look at the numbers in a critical way. "Look at the numbers in a critical way" is an interesting framing of "make shit up."

coliveira 2y ago
[flagged]
- llamaimperative 2y ago
  wat

sangnoir 2y ago

> In a high inflation environment, one has to consume "strongly" just to maintain the same standards of living. Strong disagree: you can't spend what you don't have (or can't borrow), so spending is a vital signal. There's a natural experiment that just happened that refutes your argument: after Covid, most of the world had high inflation (with some actual recessions), but the US did better than everyone else, with stronger American consumer spending helping the recovery (leading to more jobs to service the strong demand). Your argument falls apart when you consider why UK or French consumers consume as "strongly" to maintain their lifestyles. > If you underreport inflation, then the average income will increase faster. There's no one way to calculate inflation (since this depends on how you choose your 'basket'). But like I said, based on vibes, everything is awful.

coliveira 2y ago
> you can't spend what you don't have Yes you can, just borrow more [1]: [1] https://washingtonstatestandard.com/2024/08/26/us-credit-card-debt-continues-to-rise-as-housing-and-other-costs-remain-high-for-the-lowest-earners/ https://washingtonstatestandard.com/2024/08/26/us-credit-car... > Your argument falls apart when you consider why UK or French consumers consume as "strongly" to maintain their lifestyles They don't have access to cheap credit as the US consumer has, and being smarter than Americans they refrain from going into more debt. > There's no one way to calculate inflation Yes, there is, it is just different for lower income earners. Economists just don't want to measure the impact on people who have to spend large part of their salaries on rents, health care, cars, all things with prices that increase higher than official inflation.
- sangnoir 2y ago
  > Yes you can, just borrow more Did you purposely leave out my parenthetical to use it as a dunk? Borrowers are not dumb (and the amount of debt is also a useful signal on economic health by the way, and right now it's not terrible; definitely not in recession territory) > Yes, there is, it is just different for lower income earners Well, don't leave me hanging - what's the one way to calculate inflation then? Which specific mix of goods and services (and locations) should be used as a national benchmark in THE inflation equation?