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Your point was well put and would have landed well five years ago, but today the unstoppable (short of global, civilization-ending catastrophe) march toward ubi

by natch 2y ago

Your point was well put and would have landed well five years ago, but today the unstoppable (short of global, civilization-ending catastrophe) march toward ubiquitous smart robots refutes that this is a chain of unlikely events. The built in incentives for technology to improve will continue after we get smart robots. This will change things. In a couple of decades it will be very hard to argue that they aren’t human 2.0 or <n>.0. And if we still insist, they might decide for us. I don’t fervently hope for this but I am very curious how it plays out. The opposite view to yours is valid: Us not arriving at human 2.0 would only be possible by a long chain of improbable events. And in this view those who think we will continue as we are (cancer-susceptible meat bags) are the ones taking a quasi religious position.

lproven 2y ago
No, it's not, and your point continues your faith-based belief. I am 57. I've been working in this industry for 36 years. The computer world is no closer to machine intelligence today than it was in 1988 when I walked into my first job. It's no closer than in 1981 when I touched my first microcomputer. LLM bots are not in any way intelligent, but they do expose a type of flawed non-analytical thinking in humans that is easily persuaded that a machine is intelligent if it can emit coherent sentences. I think you are totally wrong and that this will be abundantly apparent in a decade, perhaps in half a decade. The next few years will usher in the latest AI winter, just as they did a generation ago and a generation before that.
lproven 2y ago
P.S. > (short of global, civilization-ending catastrophe) We are well on our way to that, and almost certainly past the point of no return. https://medium.com/@samyoureyes/the-busy-workers-handbook-to-the-apocalypse-7790666afde7 https://medium.com/@samyoureyes/the-busy-workers-handbook-to...
- natch 2y ago
  Good link, terrifying read, thank you.

by natch 2y ago

lproven 2y ago

No, it's not, and your point continues your faith-based belief. I am 57. I've been working in this industry for 36 years. The computer world is no closer to machine intelligence today than it was in 1988 when I walked into my first job. It's no closer than in 1981 when I touched my first microcomputer. LLM bots are not in any way intelligent, but they do expose a type of flawed non-analytical thinking in humans that is easily persuaded that a machine is intelligent if it can emit coherent sentences. I think you are totally wrong and that this will be abundantly apparent in a decade, perhaps in half a decade. The next few years will usher in the latest AI winter, just as they did a generation ago and a generation before that.

lproven 2y ago

P.S. > (short of global, civilization-ending catastrophe) We are well on our way to that, and almost certainly past the point of no return. https://medium.com/@samyoureyes/the-busy-workers-handbook-to-the-apocalypse-7790666afde7 https://medium.com/@samyoureyes/the-busy-workers-handbook-to...

natch 2y ago
Good link, terrifying read, thank you.