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Assad had majority approval prior to the war [1] (can't find any more recent adversarial polls, which may be telling) and his family has been in power for decad

Assad had majority approval prior to the war [1] (can't find any more recent adversarial polls, which may be telling) and his family has been in power for decades. The comparison is inappropriate. It's more akin to saying that states adversarial to the US won after the CIA overthrew a popular secular democracy in Iran, and installed a extremely unpopular puppet monarchy that was obseqious to the US. In general maintaining power without relatively widespread support is quite difficult - probably even more so in the digital era which makes conspiracies so much easier to organise. [1] - https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2012/jan/17/syrians-support-assad-western-propaganda https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2012/jan/17/syrian...

JumpCrisscross 2y ago
> Assad had majority approval prior to the war (can't find any more recent adversarial polls, which may be telling) and his family has been in power for decades "Some 55% of Syrians want Assad to stay, motivated by fear of civil war" is not 55% approval rating, it's 55% making the pragmatic choice against civil war. > maintaining power without relatively widespread support is quite difficult Strange claim in a thread about the Korean peninsula.
- ANewFormation 2y ago
  So protestors, and other politicians, rejected his claim of martial law - it's now over, and he will likely be arrested. Seems there yet remains more to power than titles and declarations.
  - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
    > he will likely be arrested He hasn't done anything illegal. Being asked to resign or forced to by impeachment are more likely.
    - ANewFormation 2y ago
      You should check out South Korea's history. Presidents ending up in prison or killed is a national tradition. If there were a prediction market for this within 3 years, I'd expect the line to be around 70%. He just did a weird spin on the 'if you go after the king, don't miss' and missed.
- pas 2y ago
  difficult seems like the right word. it's definitely not a walk in the park to run a brutal dictatorship like North Korea.

JumpCrisscross 2y ago

> Assad had majority approval prior to the war (can't find any more recent adversarial polls, which may be telling) and his family has been in power for decades "Some 55% of Syrians want Assad to stay, motivated by fear of civil war" is not 55% approval rating, it's 55% making the pragmatic choice against civil war. > maintaining power without relatively widespread support is quite difficult Strange claim in a thread about the Korean peninsula.

ANewFormation 2y ago
So protestors, and other politicians, rejected his claim of martial law - it's now over, and he will likely be arrested. Seems there yet remains more to power than titles and declarations.
- JumpCrisscross 2y ago
  > he will likely be arrested He hasn't done anything illegal. Being asked to resign or forced to by impeachment are more likely.
  - ANewFormation 2y ago
    You should check out South Korea's history. Presidents ending up in prison or killed is a national tradition. If there were a prediction market for this within 3 years, I'd expect the line to be around 70%. He just did a weird spin on the 'if you go after the king, don't miss' and missed.
pas 2y ago
difficult seems like the right word. it's definitely not a walk in the park to run a brutal dictatorship like North Korea.