3 ms·
There is a surprisingly common use case for "quick and dirty univariate time series forecasts" that are basically equivalent to giving a small child a pencil, a
by cye131 2y ago
There is a surprisingly common use case for "quick and dirty univariate time series forecasts" that are basically equivalent to giving a small child a pencil, and asking them to draw out the trendline. The now-deprecated Prophet model from Facebook (which was just some GAM) was often used for this. Auto-ARIMA models, ETS etc are also still really commonly used. I also see people try to use boosted trees, or deep learning stuff like DeepAR or N-BEATS etc even though it's rarely appropriate for their 1k-datapoint univariate time series, just because it gives off the impression of serious methodological work.
There are a lot of use cases in business were what's needed is just some basic reasonable-ish forecast. I actually think this new model is really neat because it completely dispenses with the pretense that we're doing some really serious and methodologically-backed thing, and we're really just looking a basic curve fit that seems pretty reasonable with human intuition.
- fny 2y agoThis is not curve fitting or forecasting: it's pattern matching. It's also a serious methodological approach. A fall on a sensor graph has a certain look to it just like an abnormality on an EKG that a human can detect. You can train multimodal models to detect these too with decent accuracy. What's methodologically unsound about that? If anything, it demonstrates you don't necessarily need a class of hyper-specific models to do pattern matching.
- mistrial9 2y ago> basically equivalent to giving a small child a pencil this is false, both superficially and at deeper levels. It is a harmful anti-pattern to repeat this analogy.