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That table shows UK data from the 90s, aviation has made a lot of progress since. How exactly the risk of flying compares to other modes of transportation on a
by svara 2y ago
That table shows UK data from the 90s, aviation has made a lot of progress since.
How exactly the risk of flying compares to other modes of transportation on a per-trip basis is a difficult question to answer really well, I couldn't find one place aggregating up-to-date statistics.
If you look here https://accidentstats.airbus.com/generations-of-jet/ https://accidentstats.airbus.com/generations-of-jet/, they say that "generation 4" aircraft (e.g., Boeing 787 or Airbus A350) have a fatal accident rate of 4e-8 per journey.
That would make those airplanes about twice as safe as car travel in the US on a per-trip basis according to this paper https://academic.oup.com/aje/article-abstract/166/2/212/98784?redirectedFrom=fulltext https://academic.oup.com/aje/article-abstract/166/2/212/9878....
Unfortunately the 4e-8 number can't be compared directly to the fatalities per billion journeys numbers from the table you cite, since fatal accidents include accidents where at least one person died, including things such as accidents with personnel on the ground where all passengers were safe.
If we ignore this and assume a 100% death rate, that would put flying in the same ballpark as car-based transportation from the table you cite, but more dangerous than a bus by almost a factor of 10. This definitely overestimates the danger of flying, possibly by a lot, since there have not been any hull loss accidents with those aircraft models so far.
I think the general conclusion holds that flying has in the last few decades become comparatively safe even on a per-trip basis (at least on modern aircraft).
But I haven't found great data enabling a detailed comparison to other forms of transportation.