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> Go ahead and play the war games, but stories I've heard indicate that the Chinese military is at least as corrupt as Russia's. Maybe so, but Russia is still

by tivert 2y ago

> Go ahead and play the war games, but stories I've heard indicate that the Chinese military is at least as corrupt as Russia's. Maybe so, but Russia is still winning in Ukraine. > Taiwan produces the world's most advanced semiconductors and many of America's most profitable businesses are dependent upon it. > The Chinese do not have a deep water Navy. We can blockade their oil supply with a couple destroyers in the Malacca strait. No oil, no food. China starves in six months. China is building ships far faster than the US is, and they don't have to operate halfway around the world in this conflict scenario. Also, they're working on building a blue-water navy right now. > Consider this strategy. If China tries to invade Taiwan, The best strategy may be overwhelming conventional defeat of the Chinese forces so they get back in the global trade game rather than extended blockade and disruption of the geopolitically extended supply lines. The US/NATO has avoided a direct conflict with Russia for a very important reason everyone understood during the Cold War, and that reason also applies to China. I think the US is more likely to lean on Intel and let Taiwan go than engage in a full-on direct conflict with China (which the US would also likely lose). Also, China's not stupid. They have high-priority projects, to reduce the vulnerabilities you cite, which they are making progress on, e.g.: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vqzryHGQ1RQ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vqzryHGQ1RQ https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-pledges-24b-coal-oil-110941672.html https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-pledges-24b-coal-oil-11... https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-food-security-law-comes-into-force-aims-absolute-self-sufficiency-2024-05-31/ https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-food-security-law-... When the US tries stuff like that, business interests undermine it, then it gets flogged as a boondoggle and never repeated. China just does it. If it doesn't work the first time, they try again. > US businesses should be encouraging Chinese companies there depending upon to open satellite manufacturing branches in Mexico or South America. A lot of Chinese industrialists are concerned with the increasing authoritarianism in China and are probably desperate to diversify internationally. US business interests have the US government by the balls, so they were allowed to sell out the US industrial base and have been able to freely throw wrenches into attempts to address that problem. Chinese business interests don't have that kind of pull, and I don't think the Chinese government will allow them to pull the same kind of shit. I wouldn't be surprised if those industrialists would get thrown in prison if their business actions threatened Chinese state interests, and they most likely know it. My message here is: don't get cocky.

aguaviva 2y ago
Maybe so, but Russia is still winning in Ukraine. It's pushing toward a stalement, far short of its initial invasion goals and at vastly heavier cost than intended. No need for cockiness on either side.
- tivert 2y ago
  > It's pushing toward a stalement, far short of its initial invasion goals and at vastly heavier cost than intended. The momentum is in Russia's direction, and it feels like Ukraine is teetering in the brink due to manpower and resource issues, and that's even without Trump. If Russia pays the price, it won. Winning is winning, even if it's Pyrrhic.
  - aguaviva 2y ago
    "Teetering [on] the brink" is overdrawn. I'm not aware of any analysis that suggests that the Ukrainian side is on the verge of collapse. My own sense is tha the conflict is long past the point where it can be meaningfully won by either side. The best either can hope for is an outcome that can be presented internally as "not losing". Any attempt to portray the outcome as substantially stronger than that will be a matter of spin and rhetoric.
    - jack_pp 2y ago
      Ukrainian side is only standing because of the US involvement and I don't believe Trump plans to drag this out much longer
  - AtlasBarfed 2y ago
    Which is why Russia's economy is collapsing with devalued rubles, high inflation, high interest rates, closed banks, they are calling up NK soldiers, lost territory in Russia, are losing 1500-2000 soldiers a day? They are losing like 100,000 soldier per 10 miles of ground they gain. Talk about unsustainable. And now Russian staging, logistics, weapons depots, artillery, airfields can be targeted with ATACMS. Absolutely nobody has any momentum in this. If anything, Russian meat wave tactics lend themselves to spectacular collapse if morale and logistics break. So they grind soldiers for months to gain 30 kilometers, and suddenly get overrun by a swift counterattack if the line falters. It's hard to get info on the actual kill ratios, but I would guess meat wave tactics are resulting in 5:1 kill ratios by Ukraine, if not better. We'll see what winter does to Russian troops, they aren't typically well supported or supplied even in summer.

by tivert 2y ago

aguaviva 2y ago

Maybe so, but Russia is still winning in Ukraine. It's pushing toward a stalement, far short of its initial invasion goals and at vastly heavier cost than intended. No need for cockiness on either side.

tivert 2y ago
> It's pushing toward a stalement, far short of its initial invasion goals and at vastly heavier cost than intended. The momentum is in Russia's direction, and it feels like Ukraine is teetering in the brink due to manpower and resource issues, and that's even without Trump. If Russia pays the price, it won. Winning is winning, even if it's Pyrrhic.
- aguaviva 2y ago
  "Teetering [on] the brink" is overdrawn. I'm not aware of any analysis that suggests that the Ukrainian side is on the verge of collapse. My own sense is tha the conflict is long past the point where it can be meaningfully won by either side. The best either can hope for is an outcome that can be presented internally as "not losing". Any attempt to portray the outcome as substantially stronger than that will be a matter of spin and rhetoric.
  - jack_pp 2y ago
    Ukrainian side is only standing because of the US involvement and I don't believe Trump plans to drag this out much longer
- AtlasBarfed 2y ago
  Which is why Russia's economy is collapsing with devalued rubles, high inflation, high interest rates, closed banks, they are calling up NK soldiers, lost territory in Russia, are losing 1500-2000 soldiers a day? They are losing like 100,000 soldier per 10 miles of ground they gain. Talk about unsustainable. And now Russian staging, logistics, weapons depots, artillery, airfields can be targeted with ATACMS. Absolutely nobody has any momentum in this. If anything, Russian meat wave tactics lend themselves to spectacular collapse if morale and logistics break. So they grind soldiers for months to gain 30 kilometers, and suddenly get overrun by a swift counterattack if the line falters. It's hard to get info on the actual kill ratios, but I would guess meat wave tactics are resulting in 5:1 kill ratios by Ukraine, if not better. We'll see what winter does to Russian troops, they aren't typically well supported or supplied even in summer.