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Personally if I'm about to go on a 500 mile trip and choosing between modes of transport on safety grounds, I'd pick the one with the highest chance of survivin
by notahacker 2y ago
Personally if I'm about to go on a 500 mile trip and choosing between modes of transport on safety grounds, I'd pick the one with the highest chance of surviving that trip, which ceteris paribus is the one with the fewest incidents per mile, and not make the error of assuming that the risk of a 500 mile car journey is equal to the risk of the average 10 mile car journey the per-trip stats are based on.
(Complications like takeoff and landing might actually make a 10 mile commercial flight riskier, but that isn't an actual option. The 500 mile flight is going to work out safer in almost all circumstances though)
- odyssey7 2y agoTravel can be necessary or discretionary. The per-mile safety is the relevant number when the travel is necessary, but if it’s discretionary, then I might choose to just stay home if the numbers (price, time commitment, missed events back home, death risk…) don’t seem that great.
- notahacker 2y agoSure, but if you're evaluating the risk of a discretionary trip the crude per mile safety of the transport mode (multiplied by the specific trip mileage and adjusted by any other risk factors you're aware of) is still the correct starting point for estimation and the crude per trip estimate across all journeys undertaken by that mode of transport raised upthread still unambiguously the wrong one (especially if there are vast differences in average trip lengths like between aeroplanes and cars)