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that very low risk is predicated on the US sticking its neck out for Taiwan. Also considering what's happening in the world at large I wouldn't be so sure there

that very low risk is predicated on the US sticking its neck out for Taiwan. Also considering what's happening in the world at large I wouldn't be so sure there's that low of a risk after all

dmix 2y ago
> that very low risk is predicated on the US sticking its neck out for Taiwan. Half of the US military is obsessively focused on this scenario. The Ukraine war showed what an invasion of a neighboring country gains you and that one didn't involve US airforce, navy, and marines directly intervening. The odds the Chinese will suddenly be happy being poor and isolated from the west like Russians in exchange for Taiwan is extremely unlikely.
- jack_pp 2y ago
  can the west afford to isolate itself from china though? if they are so scared how come they threaten it so much, just trolling? I mean the US just spent 8B to hedge this risk, surely you know better lol
  - AtlasBarfed 2y ago
    Honestly, I think this could be fixed in probably a year, if the US made a rule that 10% of anything sold, whether it be the assembled or parts, has to be manufactured in US, Canada or Mexico. I got to be happy with South America or Africa or obviously Europe
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]
- tivert 2y ago
  > Half of the US military is obsessively focused on this scenario. The Ukraine war showed what an invasion of a neighboring country gains you and that one didn't involve US airforce, navy, and marines directly intervening. Taiwan is a little island right next to its adversary, and far away from its major allies. It's not Ukraine, you can't drive a truck from NATO to it. Also the western cupboard is looking pretty bare, after so much equipment and ammunition has been burned up in Ukraine. Western production capacity can't keep up. IIRC, and the US blue team has lost every war game it's conducted on that scenario. Like it or not, China is modernizing its military quickly, so the US can no longer depend on having a huge technological advantage to compensate for its weaknesses in this scenario. > The odds the Chinese will suddenly be happy being poor and isolated from the west like Russians in exchange for Taiwan is extremely unlikely. It doesn't matter if the Chinese (people) are happy or not, they don't really have a say. Americans, on the other hand, will feel just as poor if they become isolated from China (just think of all the Made in China products that won't be restocked), and they do have a say. In WWII, the Allies won in large part because America was the workshop of the world. Decades ago it ceded that title to China, because muh profits free trade. That doesn't augur too well for the outcome of a future conflict.
  - AtlasBarfed 2y ago
    Go ahead and play the war games, but stories I've heard indicate that the Chinese military is at least as corrupt as Russia's. Ukraine invasion was a flat land invasion. Invasion of Taiwan involves crossing a body of water and then an invading a mountain fortress Isle. Ukraine just grew wheat for the third world. Taiwan produces the world's most advanced semiconductors and many of America's most profitable businesses are dependent upon it. The Chinese do not have a deep water Navy. We can blockade their oil supply with a couple destroyers in the Malacca strait. No oil, no food. China starves in six months. Consider this strategy. If China tries to invade Taiwan, The best strategy may be overwhelming conventional defeat of the Chinese forces so they get back in the global trade game rather than extended blockade and disruption of the geopolitically extended supply lines. In the meantime, any US company depend upon Chinese production really should start partying with them to move production or at least distribute production to Mexico as well as China. US businesses should be encouraging Chinese companies there depending upon to open satellite manufacturing branches in Mexico or South America. A lot of Chinese industrialists are concerned with the increasing authoritarianism in China and are probably desperate to diversify internationally.
    - tivert 2y ago
      > Go ahead and play the war games, but stories I've heard indicate that the Chinese military is at least as corrupt as Russia's. Maybe so, but Russia is still winning in Ukraine. > Taiwan produces the world's most advanced semiconductors and many of America's most profitable businesses are dependent upon it. > The Chinese do not have a deep water Navy. We can blockade their oil supply with a couple destroyers in the Malacca strait. No oil, no food. China starves in six months. China is building ships far faster than the US is, and they don't have to operate halfway around the world in this conflict scenario. Also, they're working on building a blue-water navy right now. > Consider this strategy. If China tries to invade Taiwan, The best strategy may be overwhelming conventional defeat of the Chinese forces so they get back in the global trade game rather than extended blockade and disruption of the geopolitically extended supply lines. The US/NATO has avoided a direct conflict with Russia for a very important reason everyone understood during the Cold War, and that reason also applies to China. I think the US is more likely to lean on Intel and let Taiwan go than engage in a full-on direct conflict with China (which the US would also likely lose). Also, China's not stupid. They have high-priority projects, to reduce the vulnerabilities you cite, which they are making progress on, e.g.: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vqzryHGQ1RQ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vqzryHGQ1RQ https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-pledges-24b-coal-oil-110941672.html https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-pledges-24b-coal-oil-11... https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-food-security-law-comes-into-force-aims-absolute-self-sufficiency-2024-05-31/ https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-food-security-law-... When the US tries stuff like that, business interests undermine it, then it gets flogged as a boondoggle and never repeated. China just does it. If it doesn't work the first time, they try again. > US businesses should be encouraging Chinese companies there depending upon to open satellite manufacturing branches in Mexico or South America. A lot of Chinese industrialists are concerned with the increasing authoritarianism in China and are probably desperate to diversify internationally. US business interests have the US government by the balls, so they were allowed to sell out the US industrial base and have been able to freely throw wrenches into attempts to address that problem. Chinese business interests don't have that kind of pull, and I don't think the Chinese government will allow them to pull the same kind of shit. I wouldn't be surprised if those industrialists would get thrown in prison if their business actions threatened Chinese state interests, and they most likely know it. My message here is: don't get cocky.

that very low risk is predicated on the US sticking its neck out for Taiwan. Also considering what's happening in the world at large I wouldn't be so sure there's that low of a risk after all

dmix 2y ago

> that very low risk is predicated on the US sticking its neck out for Taiwan. Half of the US military is obsessively focused on this scenario. The Ukraine war showed what an invasion of a neighboring country gains you and that one didn't involve US airforce, navy, and marines directly intervening. The odds the Chinese will suddenly be happy being poor and isolated from the west like Russians in exchange for Taiwan is extremely unlikely.

jack_pp 2y ago
can the west afford to isolate itself from china though? if they are so scared how come they threaten it so much, just trolling? I mean the US just spent 8B to hedge this risk, surely you know better lol
- AtlasBarfed 2y ago
  Honestly, I think this could be fixed in probably a year, if the US made a rule that 10% of anything sold, whether it be the assembled or parts, has to be manufactured in US, Canada or Mexico. I got to be happy with South America or Africa or obviously Europe
deleted 2y ago
[deleted]
tivert 2y ago
> Half of the US military is obsessively focused on this scenario. The Ukraine war showed what an invasion of a neighboring country gains you and that one didn't involve US airforce, navy, and marines directly intervening. Taiwan is a little island right next to its adversary, and far away from its major allies. It's not Ukraine, you can't drive a truck from NATO to it. Also the western cupboard is looking pretty bare, after so much equipment and ammunition has been burned up in Ukraine. Western production capacity can't keep up. IIRC, and the US blue team has lost every war game it's conducted on that scenario. Like it or not, China is modernizing its military quickly, so the US can no longer depend on having a huge technological advantage to compensate for its weaknesses in this scenario. > The odds the Chinese will suddenly be happy being poor and isolated from the west like Russians in exchange for Taiwan is extremely unlikely. It doesn't matter if the Chinese (people) are happy or not, they don't really have a say. Americans, on the other hand, will feel just as poor if they become isolated from China (just think of all the Made in China products that won't be restocked), and they do have a say. In WWII, the Allies won in large part because America was the workshop of the world. Decades ago it ceded that title to China, because muh profits free trade. That doesn't augur too well for the outcome of a future conflict.
- AtlasBarfed 2y ago
  Go ahead and play the war games, but stories I've heard indicate that the Chinese military is at least as corrupt as Russia's. Ukraine invasion was a flat land invasion. Invasion of Taiwan involves crossing a body of water and then an invading a mountain fortress Isle. Ukraine just grew wheat for the third world. Taiwan produces the world's most advanced semiconductors and many of America's most profitable businesses are dependent upon it. The Chinese do not have a deep water Navy. We can blockade their oil supply with a couple destroyers in the Malacca strait. No oil, no food. China starves in six months. Consider this strategy. If China tries to invade Taiwan, The best strategy may be overwhelming conventional defeat of the Chinese forces so they get back in the global trade game rather than extended blockade and disruption of the geopolitically extended supply lines. In the meantime, any US company depend upon Chinese production really should start partying with them to move production or at least distribute production to Mexico as well as China. US businesses should be encouraging Chinese companies there depending upon to open satellite manufacturing branches in Mexico or South America. A lot of Chinese industrialists are concerned with the increasing authoritarianism in China and are probably desperate to diversify internationally.
  - tivert 2y ago
    > Go ahead and play the war games, but stories I've heard indicate that the Chinese military is at least as corrupt as Russia's. Maybe so, but Russia is still winning in Ukraine. > Taiwan produces the world's most advanced semiconductors and many of America's most profitable businesses are dependent upon it. > The Chinese do not have a deep water Navy. We can blockade their oil supply with a couple destroyers in the Malacca strait. No oil, no food. China starves in six months. China is building ships far faster than the US is, and they don't have to operate halfway around the world in this conflict scenario. Also, they're working on building a blue-water navy right now. > Consider this strategy. If China tries to invade Taiwan, The best strategy may be overwhelming conventional defeat of the Chinese forces so they get back in the global trade game rather than extended blockade and disruption of the geopolitically extended supply lines. The US/NATO has avoided a direct conflict with Russia for a very important reason everyone understood during the Cold War, and that reason also applies to China. I think the US is more likely to lean on Intel and let Taiwan go than engage in a full-on direct conflict with China (which the US would also likely lose). Also, China's not stupid. They have high-priority projects, to reduce the vulnerabilities you cite, which they are making progress on, e.g.: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vqzryHGQ1RQ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vqzryHGQ1RQ https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-pledges-24b-coal-oil-110941672.html https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-pledges-24b-coal-oil-11... https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-food-security-law-comes-into-force-aims-absolute-self-sufficiency-2024-05-31/ https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-food-security-law-... When the US tries stuff like that, business interests undermine it, then it gets flogged as a boondoggle and never repeated. China just does it. If it doesn't work the first time, they try again. > US businesses should be encouraging Chinese companies there depending upon to open satellite manufacturing branches in Mexico or South America. A lot of Chinese industrialists are concerned with the increasing authoritarianism in China and are probably desperate to diversify internationally. US business interests have the US government by the balls, so they were allowed to sell out the US industrial base and have been able to freely throw wrenches into attempts to address that problem. Chinese business interests don't have that kind of pull, and I don't think the Chinese government will allow them to pull the same kind of shit. I wouldn't be surprised if those industrialists would get thrown in prison if their business actions threatened Chinese state interests, and they most likely know it. My message here is: don't get cocky.