6 ms·

When the company is the only company that's building a product that's needed domestically and internationally and is essential in the modern age and their bigge

When the company is the only company that's building a product that's needed domestically and internationally and is essential in the modern age and their biggest competitor is in a country that you need to protect from another world superpower I'd say exceptions are in order

dmix 2y ago
So this entire high risk experiment is predicated on a very low risk scenario where Taiwan is invaded? Abstract national security FUD is a boon for mega-corp welfare in the US. Boeing is the model star to follow I guess.
- jack_pp 2y ago
  that very low risk is predicated on the US sticking its neck out for Taiwan. Also considering what's happening in the world at large I wouldn't be so sure there's that low of a risk after all
  - dmix 2y ago
    > that very low risk is predicated on the US sticking its neck out for Taiwan. Half of the US military is obsessively focused on this scenario. The Ukraine war showed what an invasion of a neighboring country gains you and that one didn't involve US airforce, navy, and marines directly intervening. The odds the Chinese will suddenly be happy being poor and isolated from the west like Russians in exchange for Taiwan is extremely unlikely.
    - jack_pp 2y ago
      can the west afford to isolate itself from china though? if they are so scared how come they threaten it so much, just trolling? I mean the US just spent 8B to hedge this risk, surely you know better lol
      - AtlasBarfed 2y ago
        Honestly, I think this could be fixed in probably a year, if the US made a rule that 10% of anything sold, whether it be the assembled or parts, has to be manufactured in US, Canada or Mexico. I got to be happy with South America or Africa or obviously Europe
    - deleted 2y ago
      [deleted]
    - tivert 2y ago
      > Half of the US military is obsessively focused on this scenario. The Ukraine war showed what an invasion of a neighboring country gains you and that one didn't involve US airforce, navy, and marines directly intervening. Taiwan is a little island right next to its adversary, and far away from its major allies. It's not Ukraine, you can't drive a truck from NATO to it. Also the western cupboard is looking pretty bare, after so much equipment and ammunition has been burned up in Ukraine. Western production capacity can't keep up. IIRC, and the US blue team has lost every war game it's conducted on that scenario. Like it or not, China is modernizing its military quickly, so the US can no longer depend on having a huge technological advantage to compensate for its weaknesses in this scenario. > The odds the Chinese will suddenly be happy being poor and isolated from the west like Russians in exchange for Taiwan is extremely unlikely. It doesn't matter if the Chinese (people) are happy or not, they don't really have a say. Americans, on the other hand, will feel just as poor if they become isolated from China (just think of all the Made in China products that won't be restocked), and they do have a say. In WWII, the Allies won in large part because America was the workshop of the world. Decades ago it ceded that title to China, because muh profits free trade. That doesn't augur too well for the outcome of a future conflict.
      - AtlasBarfed 2y ago
        Go ahead and play the war games, but stories I've heard indicate that the Chinese military is at least as corrupt as Russia's. Ukraine invasion was a flat land invasion. Invasion of Taiwan involves crossing a body of water and then an invading a mountain fortress Isle. Ukraine just grew wheat for the third world. Taiwan produces the world's most advanced semiconductors and many of America's most profitable businesses are dependent upon it. The Chinese do not have a deep water Navy. We can blockade their oil supply with a couple destroyers in the Malacca strait. No oil, no food. China starves in six months. Consider this strategy. If China tries to invade Taiwan, The best strategy may be overwhelming conventional defeat of the Chinese forces so they get back in the global trade game rather than extended blockade and disruption of the geopolitically extended supply lines. In the meantime, any US company depend upon Chinese production really should start partying with them to move production or at least distribute production to Mexico as well as China. US businesses should be encouraging Chinese companies there depending upon to open satellite manufacturing branches in Mexico or South America. A lot of Chinese industrialists are concerned with the increasing authoritarianism in China and are probably desperate to diversify internationally.
- Yeul 2y ago
  No someone in America found out that their empire has begun it's long period of decline.
- rapsey 2y ago
  What is likelier is China actually succeeding in matching TSMC's capabilities and duplicate the entire west tech ecosystem completely. Anyone who still looks at China as a producer of cheap crap is a decade behind. Their STEM workforce dwarfs the west, they have the means, the ability and will to utilize every trick in the book (like spying). Taiwan and China are not like South and North Korea. They can lure engineers from Taiwan to work for them.
  - glenstein 2y ago
    I think it's a why not both situation. China is aggressively modernizing their chip manufacturing capabilities, it's nevertheless extremely hard, and their ambitions to absorb Taiwan and TSMC's capabilities into their economic industrial and military ambitions would serve to compliment their efforts
    - rapsey 2y ago
      If they can replicate them within a decade why bother with an extremely costly war.
      - glenstein 2y ago
        Because they can't and I wasn't suggesting they could. It could simultaneously be the case that they can make some degree of forward progress that falls well short of replicating the capabilities of TSMC.
- glenstein 2y ago
  >is predicated on a very low risk scenario where Taiwan is invaded? Low risk scenario? Chad is insisting that it's inevitable, constantly escalating their military exercises, and it's seeming like they're increasingly on a near-term timeline, and it seems like military interaction with the United States is almost guaranteed, it seems like that is an extremely provocative danger. I might go so far as to say that it's among the top five greatest risks facing the world over the next 10 years. It's about as risky as it gets.
  - glenstein 2y ago
    Oops, that should be China, not Chad.
nickpsecurity 2y ago
Or you force them to license their patents and I.P. to alternative suppliers on reasonable terms, invest money in all of the players in that market, and the best players grab more market. If building a fab, it should probably not be managed by Intel but could pay them for their tech. Intel should get much less of the money since their management is the problem. I’ll note that the only reason there even is a good market for x86 is that Intel was forced to license patents to AMD. Centaur and Transmeta had their innovations, too. More competition, esp building on proven fabs and I.P., would be the best route for the x86 ecosystem. Likewise, IBM has competing suppliers in POWER markets. Apple bought the power-efficient one. ARM’s model is pro-competition with the huge number of good products showing what my Intel proposal might accomplish.

dmix 2y ago

So this entire high risk experiment is predicated on a very low risk scenario where Taiwan is invaded? Abstract national security FUD is a boon for mega-corp welfare in the US. Boeing is the model star to follow I guess.

jack_pp 2y ago
that very low risk is predicated on the US sticking its neck out for Taiwan. Also considering what's happening in the world at large I wouldn't be so sure there's that low of a risk after all
- dmix 2y ago
  > that very low risk is predicated on the US sticking its neck out for Taiwan. Half of the US military is obsessively focused on this scenario. The Ukraine war showed what an invasion of a neighboring country gains you and that one didn't involve US airforce, navy, and marines directly intervening. The odds the Chinese will suddenly be happy being poor and isolated from the west like Russians in exchange for Taiwan is extremely unlikely.
  - jack_pp 2y ago
    can the west afford to isolate itself from china though? if they are so scared how come they threaten it so much, just trolling? I mean the US just spent 8B to hedge this risk, surely you know better lol
    - AtlasBarfed 2y ago
      Honestly, I think this could be fixed in probably a year, if the US made a rule that 10% of anything sold, whether it be the assembled or parts, has to be manufactured in US, Canada or Mexico. I got to be happy with South America or Africa or obviously Europe
  - deleted 2y ago
    [deleted]
  - tivert 2y ago
    > Half of the US military is obsessively focused on this scenario. The Ukraine war showed what an invasion of a neighboring country gains you and that one didn't involve US airforce, navy, and marines directly intervening. Taiwan is a little island right next to its adversary, and far away from its major allies. It's not Ukraine, you can't drive a truck from NATO to it. Also the western cupboard is looking pretty bare, after so much equipment and ammunition has been burned up in Ukraine. Western production capacity can't keep up. IIRC, and the US blue team has lost every war game it's conducted on that scenario. Like it or not, China is modernizing its military quickly, so the US can no longer depend on having a huge technological advantage to compensate for its weaknesses in this scenario. > The odds the Chinese will suddenly be happy being poor and isolated from the west like Russians in exchange for Taiwan is extremely unlikely. It doesn't matter if the Chinese (people) are happy or not, they don't really have a say. Americans, on the other hand, will feel just as poor if they become isolated from China (just think of all the Made in China products that won't be restocked), and they do have a say. In WWII, the Allies won in large part because America was the workshop of the world. Decades ago it ceded that title to China, because muh profits free trade. That doesn't augur too well for the outcome of a future conflict.
    - AtlasBarfed 2y ago
      Go ahead and play the war games, but stories I've heard indicate that the Chinese military is at least as corrupt as Russia's. Ukraine invasion was a flat land invasion. Invasion of Taiwan involves crossing a body of water and then an invading a mountain fortress Isle. Ukraine just grew wheat for the third world. Taiwan produces the world's most advanced semiconductors and many of America's most profitable businesses are dependent upon it. The Chinese do not have a deep water Navy. We can blockade their oil supply with a couple destroyers in the Malacca strait. No oil, no food. China starves in six months. Consider this strategy. If China tries to invade Taiwan, The best strategy may be overwhelming conventional defeat of the Chinese forces so they get back in the global trade game rather than extended blockade and disruption of the geopolitically extended supply lines. In the meantime, any US company depend upon Chinese production really should start partying with them to move production or at least distribute production to Mexico as well as China. US businesses should be encouraging Chinese companies there depending upon to open satellite manufacturing branches in Mexico or South America. A lot of Chinese industrialists are concerned with the increasing authoritarianism in China and are probably desperate to diversify internationally.
Yeul 2y ago
No someone in America found out that their empire has begun it's long period of decline.
rapsey 2y ago
What is likelier is China actually succeeding in matching TSMC's capabilities and duplicate the entire west tech ecosystem completely. Anyone who still looks at China as a producer of cheap crap is a decade behind. Their STEM workforce dwarfs the west, they have the means, the ability and will to utilize every trick in the book (like spying). Taiwan and China are not like South and North Korea. They can lure engineers from Taiwan to work for them.
- glenstein 2y ago
  I think it's a why not both situation. China is aggressively modernizing their chip manufacturing capabilities, it's nevertheless extremely hard, and their ambitions to absorb Taiwan and TSMC's capabilities into their economic industrial and military ambitions would serve to compliment their efforts
  - rapsey 2y ago
    If they can replicate them within a decade why bother with an extremely costly war.
    - glenstein 2y ago
      Because they can't and I wasn't suggesting they could. It could simultaneously be the case that they can make some degree of forward progress that falls well short of replicating the capabilities of TSMC.
glenstein 2y ago
>is predicated on a very low risk scenario where Taiwan is invaded? Low risk scenario? Chad is insisting that it's inevitable, constantly escalating their military exercises, and it's seeming like they're increasingly on a near-term timeline, and it seems like military interaction with the United States is almost guaranteed, it seems like that is an extremely provocative danger. I might go so far as to say that it's among the top five greatest risks facing the world over the next 10 years. It's about as risky as it gets.
- glenstein 2y ago
  Oops, that should be China, not Chad.

nickpsecurity 2y ago

Or you force them to license their patents and I.P. to alternative suppliers on reasonable terms, invest money in all of the players in that market, and the best players grab more market. If building a fab, it should probably not be managed by Intel but could pay them for their tech. Intel should get much less of the money since their management is the problem. I’ll note that the only reason there even is a good market for x86 is that Intel was forced to license patents to AMD. Centaur and Transmeta had their innovations, too. More competition, esp building on proven fabs and I.P., would be the best route for the x86 ecosystem. Likewise, IBM has competing suppliers in POWER markets. Apple bought the power-efficient one. ARM’s model is pro-competition with the huge number of good products showing what my Intel proposal might accomplish.