3 ms·

There's no way that they were netting 250MM EUR per month. Just think of that number. That's 3 BILLION EUR per year! Putting that into perspective, Gitlab is o

by sushid 2y ago

There's no way that they were netting 250MM EUR per month. Just think of that number. That's 3 BILLION EUR per year! Putting that into perspective, Gitlab is on track to do around just 580MM USD this year and is valued at 8 billion dollars in market cap. Something tells me that their revenue isn't is 10% of Netflix.

roenxi 2y ago
The Gitlab comparison makes it sound more realistic to me. Nobody pays for a subscription to Gitlab, 99% of humanity doesn't know what git is and it is quite plausible that of the remainder 99% don't pay for Gitlab. Compare that to streaming where at least >20% of the population know what it is and >20% of that seem to pay for streaming as a service. Much bigger market, and being a pirate site seems like it'd give them and an edge in the market because their catalogue would be better than any legal operation.
- sushid 2y ago
  Obviously a lot of factors are at play for SaaS pricing but that would mean it would be worth at least around 50 billion USD in market cap if it were a legitimate business. Seems highly unlikely.
  - roenxi 2y ago
    What would make that unlikely? Sounds like a pretty reasonable valuation. Netflix is $400 Billion USD for ~300 million subscribers and is likely an inferior product to a pirate streaming site (otherwise, obviously, the pirate subscribers would go with Netflix). $50 billion for ~20 million users seems ballpark plausible. Note that black markets exist because there is enugh demand for a product that it overwhelms the ability of the army/police to enforce the law. This site is obviously going to be doing something economically popular. If it wasn't making a killing, ol' mate running the place would go find some other career.
    - sushid 2y ago
      To me, it seems unlikely that a singular, blatantly illegal service that is > 10% as popular as Netflix would go unnoticed by the legal authorities. And given the comments below indicating that it was a mistranslation, it's a moot point- it was wrong after all.
jokethrowaway 2y ago
Moreover they found only 1.6M in cryptocurrency, which would be the income they get in 5 hours No chance they were making 250M and were able to stash it away so neatly and so fast that they found so little money

by sushid 2y ago

roenxi 2y ago

The Gitlab comparison makes it sound more realistic to me. Nobody pays for a subscription to Gitlab, 99% of humanity doesn't know what git is and it is quite plausible that of the remainder 99% don't pay for Gitlab. Compare that to streaming where at least >20% of the population know what it is and >20% of that seem to pay for streaming as a service. Much bigger market, and being a pirate site seems like it'd give them and an edge in the market because their catalogue would be better than any legal operation.

sushid 2y ago
Obviously a lot of factors are at play for SaaS pricing but that would mean it would be worth at least around 50 billion USD in market cap if it were a legitimate business. Seems highly unlikely.
- roenxi 2y ago
  What would make that unlikely? Sounds like a pretty reasonable valuation. Netflix is $400 Billion USD for ~300 million subscribers and is likely an inferior product to a pirate streaming site (otherwise, obviously, the pirate subscribers would go with Netflix). $50 billion for ~20 million users seems ballpark plausible. Note that black markets exist because there is enugh demand for a product that it overwhelms the ability of the army/police to enforce the law. This site is obviously going to be doing something economically popular. If it wasn't making a killing, ol' mate running the place would go find some other career.
  - sushid 2y ago
    To me, it seems unlikely that a singular, blatantly illegal service that is > 10% as popular as Netflix would go unnoticed by the legal authorities. And given the comments below indicating that it was a mistranslation, it's a moot point- it was wrong after all.

jokethrowaway 2y ago

Moreover they found only 1.6M in cryptocurrency, which would be the income they get in 5 hours No chance they were making 250M and were able to stash it away so neatly and so fast that they found so little money