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Excellent points - and important not to generalize about model construction. I have a degree in computer science, and most of my training consisted of solving
by inthewoods 14y ago
Excellent points - and important not to generalize about model construction.
I have a degree in computer science, and most of my training consisted of solving problems where there was a single outcome - e.g. "does the compiler work?" When I moved into financial modeling, I really had to shift from the idea of one answer to the idea that the real world is exceptionally complex and difficult to model. I had to get comfortable with the idea that I might have an idea of the outcome based on a model, but, as you point out, this is probabilistic outcome.
I found this article to have all the marking of someone with a similar background trying out a different profession without understanding probabilistic modeling, and, as you rightly point out, not understanding the deterministic portion of the models - the domain knowledge.
Moreover, I think he expresses doubt in any model that doesn't turn out the right answer 100% of the time - to me, not understanding the complexity of the systems that are being modeled and definitely not understanding that it is, as the name "climate science" implies, science - you experiment, you gain new knowledge from new data, etc.