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> if China is allowed to buy them The US controls what Japan can and can't do, so it will be a NO.

aurareturn 2y ago
The question isn't if Canon can sell to China now. The question is when Canon decided to invest R&D into this machine, did they have any idea that China would be cut off from this product? I assume that Canon definitely wanted to sell to China. But now the market is severely limited. TSMC uses ASML. Intel uses ASML. Both aim to manufacture the most cutting edge chips. That's where the money is. In addition, both TSMC and Intel own a fairly decent amount of shares in ASML.
- shipp02 2y ago
  It would be sad to see the competition die just because it's a little late, especially in such an important and cornerstone piece of technology today.
- ksec 2y ago
  >The question is when Canon decided to invest R&D into this machine, They have been doing this R&D since the 90s. I doubt they think much into it whether China have access but more whether it could compete with traditional tools.
- Two4 2y ago
  If there's one thing you want if you're highly dependent on a single vendor or supplier, it's a competitor to keep them in check. Expect the big players to buy a bunch of these, even if they do own shares in ASML.
- hindsightbias 2y ago
  Canon bought the tech in 2014 after working with the original startups from the 90s: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8UdNB3ZY4Ks https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8UdNB3ZY4Ks Since the tech can't compete with EUV in volume, their market is probably niche/lower production runs at a significantly lower install price.
nickserv 2y ago
Japan has their own disagreements with China, don't think they would even if the US would allow it.
- aurareturn 2y ago
  Don't think that's true. There were many Japanese firms who were displeased when the US government forced them to stop serving the Chinese market.
  - jiqiren 2y ago
    There are many US firms that are displeased not being able to serve the Chinese market...
    - Cumpiler69 2y ago
      Nvidia, AMD, etc they all build products specifically for designed to go around export controls. Their shareholders would be pissed if they didn't.
- Cumpiler69 2y ago
  For-profit corporate interest trump whatever historical geopolitical disagreements countries may have. That's why government always step in with regulations, because corporations only care about selling to the highest bidder for profit no matter how that would affect national interests. And today China is the most profitable county you can sell to if you're in the lithography business. Banning sales of equipment to China is something all lithography companies hate.
  - nickserv 2y ago
    Absolutely. The point I was making though, is that regulations could very well come from an initive of the Japanese government. Of course the reality is that both the US and Japan are involved in chip restrictions, as both have to gain by restricting China's access to advanced technology. https://www.ft.com/content/aad4f7b3-0a0f-46ca-9449-14fedce0e730 https://www.ft.com/content/aad4f7b3-0a0f-46ca-9449-14fedce0e...
RandomThoughts3 2y ago
Japan is a sovereign country. They are closely allied to the US now but that doesn’t mean it will always be the case nor that they have to silently agree to every stupid mandate the US tries to impose.
- llamaimperative 2y ago
  No of course they don’t have to, but for the foreseeable future it’d be criminally stupid not to (on this particular point).
- Cumpiler69 2y ago
  >Japan is a sovereign country. So is China. That didn't stop the US from retaliating economically when they do things the US didn't like. Just because countries are sovereign doesn't mean the US can't force them into compliance, allies or no allies. Why do you think the US spends more on military than all the other powers combined? So they call all be sovereign from the US? Or for the US to have enforcement over world geopolitics and influence over the other powers to keep being the world reserve currency?

The question isn't if Canon can sell to China now. The question is when Canon decided to invest R&D into this machine, did they have any idea that China would be cut off from this product? I assume that Canon definitely wanted to sell to China. But now the market is severely limited. TSMC uses ASML. Intel uses ASML. Both aim to manufacture the most cutting edge chips. That's where the money is. In addition, both TSMC and Intel own a fairly decent amount of shares in ASML.

shipp02 2y ago
It would be sad to see the competition die just because it's a little late, especially in such an important and cornerstone piece of technology today.
ksec 2y ago
>The question is when Canon decided to invest R&D into this machine, They have been doing this R&D since the 90s. I doubt they think much into it whether China have access but more whether it could compete with traditional tools.
Two4 2y ago
If there's one thing you want if you're highly dependent on a single vendor or supplier, it's a competitor to keep them in check. Expect the big players to buy a bunch of these, even if they do own shares in ASML.
hindsightbias 2y ago
Canon bought the tech in 2014 after working with the original startups from the 90s: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8UdNB3ZY4Ks https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8UdNB3ZY4Ks Since the tech can't compete with EUV in volume, their market is probably niche/lower production runs at a significantly lower install price.

nickserv 2y ago

Japan has their own disagreements with China, don't think they would even if the US would allow it.

aurareturn 2y ago
Don't think that's true. There were many Japanese firms who were displeased when the US government forced them to stop serving the Chinese market.
- jiqiren 2y ago
  There are many US firms that are displeased not being able to serve the Chinese market...
  - Cumpiler69 2y ago
    Nvidia, AMD, etc they all build products specifically for designed to go around export controls. Their shareholders would be pissed if they didn't.
Cumpiler69 2y ago
For-profit corporate interest trump whatever historical geopolitical disagreements countries may have. That's why government always step in with regulations, because corporations only care about selling to the highest bidder for profit no matter how that would affect national interests. And today China is the most profitable county you can sell to if you're in the lithography business. Banning sales of equipment to China is something all lithography companies hate.
- nickserv 2y ago
  Absolutely. The point I was making though, is that regulations could very well come from an initive of the Japanese government. Of course the reality is that both the US and Japan are involved in chip restrictions, as both have to gain by restricting China's access to advanced technology. https://www.ft.com/content/aad4f7b3-0a0f-46ca-9449-14fedce0e730 https://www.ft.com/content/aad4f7b3-0a0f-46ca-9449-14fedce0e...

RandomThoughts3 2y ago

Japan is a sovereign country. They are closely allied to the US now but that doesn’t mean it will always be the case nor that they have to silently agree to every stupid mandate the US tries to impose.

llamaimperative 2y ago
No of course they don’t have to, but for the foreseeable future it’d be criminally stupid not to (on this particular point).
Cumpiler69 2y ago
>Japan is a sovereign country. So is China. That didn't stop the US from retaliating economically when they do things the US didn't like. Just because countries are sovereign doesn't mean the US can't force them into compliance, allies or no allies. Why do you think the US spends more on military than all the other powers combined? So they call all be sovereign from the US? Or for the US to have enforcement over world geopolitics and influence over the other powers to keep being the world reserve currency?