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“The future is coming faster in China” China’s fuel consumption peaked in 2019 and is projected to drop 2-5% each year for several decades. This is probably a
by more_corn 2y ago
“The future is coming faster in China”
China’s fuel consumption peaked in 2019 and is projected to drop 2-5% each year for several decades.
This is probably a predictor for the rest of the world too. Potential for Africa to leapfrog over fossil fuels, developing nations will embrace solar and cheap Chinese electric vehicles.
This will cause a shift in global energy markets.
I’m not positioned to capitalize on that prediction, but it seems pretty sound.
- toomuchtodo 2y agoA year ago I would've hesitated to state with confidence that the Chinese Yuan could become a reserve currency, but at the rate they are producing clean energy products for the world and the terminal decline of the petrodollar based on forward looking petroleum demand destruction, I am much more confident in the Yuan as a reserve currency in the next ~5 years. If you're only buying dollars for petroleum, and you don't need petroleum, why are you buying dollars? You're going to need a currency China wants to buy solar PV, wind turbines, batteries, EVs, etc from them. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petrocurrency https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petrocurrency
- JumpCrisscross 2y ago> at the rate they are producing clean energy products for the world and the terminal decline of the petrodollar This is nonsense macroeconomics. Even within its framework it’s wrong: China is a net energy importer. The petrodollar hypothesis has been a myth since the 70s. China would have to open up its capital account to offer a competitive reserve currency. That isn’t happening amidst a demographic decline and authoritarian government. Washington may be doing its best to kill dollar hegemony with its tariff and sanctions fevers. But the yuan isn’t a candidate outside propaganda. > If you're only buying dollars for petroleum Then you’re an idiot. You buy dollars to buy American products, probably financial products, or have them because you sold your crap to Americans who handed you dollars.
- toomuchtodo 2y agoWe differ in our perspective of long term American economic success (and export demand vs China) I believe. Despite the demographic story, China will automate. Admittedly, you’re the capital market expert, and my thesis could be deficient. https://www.weforum.org/stories/2024/06/how-china-s-shifting-industries-are-reshaping-its-long-term-growth-model/ https://www.weforum.org/stories/2024/06/how-china-s-shifting... https://www.aspi.org.au/report/critical-technology-tracker https://www.aspi.org.au/report/critical-technology-tracker https://www.reuters.com/technology/china-overtakes-germany-industrial-use-robots-says-report-2024-11-20/ https://www.reuters.com/technology/china-overtakes-germany-i...
- Tiktaalik 2y agoMeanwhile in Canada politicians are telling us that we need to expand oil production because "we're always going to need oil" and someone is gonna get rich and it should be us. The pain will be bad as Alberta etc doubles and triples down on pumping oil as the rest of the world in fact does not need oil.