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China's EV Boom Threatens to Push Gasoline Demand Off a Cliff

38 points by okasaki 2y ago

toomuchtodo 2y ago
https://archive.today/tROuB https://archive.today/tROuB
triceratops 2y ago
"In the US, EV’s still represent only about 10% of total car sales, and BloombergNEF sharply scaled back its forecasts for growth after the Republican election sweep." "[In China] they've accounted for more than half of retail passenger vehicle sales in the four months from July, according to the China Passenger Car Association" Cue the excuses: Something something reducing our carbon emissions is pointless because China and India emit blah blah. And also China is in terminal decline because of a baby crisis.
more_corn 2y ago
“The future is coming faster in China” China’s fuel consumption peaked in 2019 and is projected to drop 2-5% each year for several decades. This is probably a predictor for the rest of the world too. Potential for Africa to leapfrog over fossil fuels, developing nations will embrace solar and cheap Chinese electric vehicles. This will cause a shift in global energy markets. I’m not positioned to capitalize on that prediction, but it seems pretty sound.
- toomuchtodo 2y ago
  A year ago I would've hesitated to state with confidence that the Chinese Yuan could become a reserve currency, but at the rate they are producing clean energy products for the world and the terminal decline of the petrodollar based on forward looking petroleum demand destruction, I am much more confident in the Yuan as a reserve currency in the next ~5 years. If you're only buying dollars for petroleum, and you don't need petroleum, why are you buying dollars? You're going to need a currency China wants to buy solar PV, wind turbines, batteries, EVs, etc from them. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petrocurrency https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petrocurrency
  - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
    > at the rate they are producing clean energy products for the world and the terminal decline of the petrodollar This is nonsense macroeconomics. Even within its framework it’s wrong: China is a net energy importer. The petrodollar hypothesis has been a myth since the 70s. China would have to open up its capital account to offer a competitive reserve currency. That isn’t happening amidst a demographic decline and authoritarian government. Washington may be doing its best to kill dollar hegemony with its tariff and sanctions fevers. But the yuan isn’t a candidate outside propaganda. > If you're only buying dollars for petroleum Then you’re an idiot. You buy dollars to buy American products, probably financial products, or have them because you sold your crap to Americans who handed you dollars.
    - toomuchtodo 2y ago
      We differ in our perspective of long term American economic success (and export demand vs China) I believe. Despite the demographic story, China will automate. Admittedly, you’re the capital market expert, and my thesis could be deficient. https://www.weforum.org/stories/2024/06/how-china-s-shifting-industries-are-reshaping-its-long-term-growth-model/ https://www.weforum.org/stories/2024/06/how-china-s-shifting... https://www.aspi.org.au/report/critical-technology-tracker https://www.aspi.org.au/report/critical-technology-tracker https://www.reuters.com/technology/china-overtakes-germany-industrial-use-robots-says-report-2024-11-20/ https://www.reuters.com/technology/china-overtakes-germany-i...
- Tiktaalik 2y ago
  Meanwhile in Canada politicians are telling us that we need to expand oil production because "we're always going to need oil" and someone is gonna get rich and it should be us. The pain will be bad as Alberta etc doubles and triples down on pumping oil as the rest of the world in fact does not need oil.
  - deleted 2y ago
    [deleted]
  - wkat4242 2y ago
    Oil is not just used for fuel though. We use tons of it for plastics and I don't see that need going anywhere.
  - tim333 2y ago
    I can see the point. We may not always need oil but while there is demand, better it comes from the Americas than Russia.
Tiktaalik 2y ago
We're heading down a crazy path where the rest of the world outside of North America has cleaner air and cheaper transportion options enabled by high quality Chinese EVs. Meanwhile life is worse and more expensive in wealthy NA, still chained to the whims of the oil market. All because of political choices in banning imports and not sufficiently pushing local auto makers to push for an EV transition. Really wild stuff to see NA that has always been at the technological bleeding edge, weirdly politicize vehicle engines and cede so much ground because it is so politically beholden to oil interests.
- TacticalCoder 2y ago
  It's not about beholding to oil interests. Does the USA wants to kill all its car manufacturers and commit industry-suicide like the EU just did? The EU is rendering countless people jobless and handing the auto market to the chinese so they can sell their spying devices on wheels (probably also complete with kill-switches that can be activated from China if needed: say in case of a full on war). It's just insanity. I think the EU is going to be a case study as to how quickly you can kill an entire industry by voting laws favoring a competing nation state instead of your own nation/countries. Be very careful what you wish for.
  - triceratops 2y ago
    So the only options are batten down the hatches (tariffs) while continuing business as usual (ICE manufacturing) inside, or open the doors and surrender (let China take over the auto market)? What about option 3? Stand and fight. Make an effort. Design something electric that people actually want to buy. Build out the necessary charging infra on a war footing. Shape consumer behavior with tax policy. I could accept EV tariffs if they were meant to give domestic manufacturers breathing room to catch up. I don't see that anyone has gotten the memo though.
    - travisporter 2y ago
      Agreed. Another take has always been china doesn’t have environmental regulations so they can go faster. Is this true? on the face of it I don’t believe it because the insane cost differential would be like 10% cheaper Chinese evs not 50%. Automation was supposed to save the west from cheap labor but the Chinese manufacturers have that too
486sx33 2y ago
So China burns coal, to generate power, at huge heat and transmission loses, to power “clean” EV cars. Much worse for the planet. Clean gasoline cars, once they implement particulate filters on them, are going to be cheap, and pollute a whole lot less than burning coal. EVs will be an option but they’re going to have to force the chargers through the grid to only charge during the day to take advantage of solar, and properly account for upstream and downstream emissions on the battery pack manufacturing and disposal. A full life cycle has to be considered. A gasoline engine, runs for a very long lifetime now, and then immediately becomes high value scrap that can be used and sold immediately. No dangerous batteries to deal with.
- triceratops 2y ago
  > So China burns coal, to generate power, at huge heat and transmission loses, to power “clean” EV cars That's one more on the climate change/EV bingo card. No they burn coal to generate the electricity they were already using for everything they did before they started buying all these EVs. Most of their new electricity generation in the past 3 years - when EV adoption has taken off - is from wind, solar, and hydro. [1] > A gasoline engine, runs for a very long lifetime now, and then immediately becomes high value scrap that can be used and sold immediately. No dangerous batteries to deal with. Right because all the dangerous byproducts in a gasoline car - the gasoline, various oils and lubricants - have already been used up and discarded into the environment. Gasoline cars have lead-acid batteries, and those are plenty dangerous and nasty. An EV battery goes into a recycling plant, just like an ICE car battery. The rest is equally high value scrap that can be used and sold immediately. You probably think lithium extraction is bad for the environment too, right? While ignoring oil spills, methane leaks, and damage and water pollution from fracking? 1. So China burns coal, to generate power, at huge heat and transmission loses, to power “clean” EV cars
- to11mtm 2y ago
  > So China burns coal, to generate power, at huge heat and transmission loses, Are they truly burning coal or are they making syngas for use with a CCGT and shipping the coke off for their steel? (Probably a bit of both, my wager.) Cause a CCGT is gonna be -at least- as efficient as an atkinson cycle gas engine. > once they implement particulate filters on them, You can hypothetically do this with a coal plant too, and what's even better is, it's easier to 'check up on' one power plant vs thousands or millions of individuals to make sure the filter is present and being maintained. (e.x. Cat deletes on gas engines.) > A gasoline engine, runs for a very long lifetime now, Short of something with a Toyota HSD style setup, you've still got a lot of -other- components that break down in increasing frequency to support that. Your Steel Belt CVTs, your 8-10 speed transmissions with too much complexity slammed in resulting in various reliability issues... And lately almost every manufacturer, even Toyota, has had to do a recall on some engines due to very bad failure modes. And all of it in the name of trying to keep gas engines to the need for efficiency while also trying to add far more power than most people need in a daily.
deleted 2y ago
[deleted]
black_13 2y ago
[dead]
amai 2y ago
That is bad news for oil producing countries like Saudi Arabia or Russia, but good news for the rest of the world. It seems our planet will be saved by China and not by the USA.

38 points by okasaki 2y ago

https://archive.today/tROuB https://archive.today/tROuB

"In the US, EV’s still represent only about 10% of total car sales, and BloombergNEF sharply scaled back its forecasts for growth after the Republican election sweep." "[In China] they've accounted for more than half of retail passenger vehicle sales in the four months from July, according to the China Passenger Car Association" Cue the excuses: Something something reducing our carbon emissions is pointless because China and India emit blah blah. And also China is in terminal decline because of a baby crisis.

more_corn 2y ago

“The future is coming faster in China” China’s fuel consumption peaked in 2019 and is projected to drop 2-5% each year for several decades. This is probably a predictor for the rest of the world too. Potential for Africa to leapfrog over fossil fuels, developing nations will embrace solar and cheap Chinese electric vehicles. This will cause a shift in global energy markets. I’m not positioned to capitalize on that prediction, but it seems pretty sound.

toomuchtodo 2y ago
A year ago I would've hesitated to state with confidence that the Chinese Yuan could become a reserve currency, but at the rate they are producing clean energy products for the world and the terminal decline of the petrodollar based on forward looking petroleum demand destruction, I am much more confident in the Yuan as a reserve currency in the next ~5 years. If you're only buying dollars for petroleum, and you don't need petroleum, why are you buying dollars? You're going to need a currency China wants to buy solar PV, wind turbines, batteries, EVs, etc from them. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petrocurrency https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petrocurrency
- JumpCrisscross 2y ago
  > at the rate they are producing clean energy products for the world and the terminal decline of the petrodollar This is nonsense macroeconomics. Even within its framework it’s wrong: China is a net energy importer. The petrodollar hypothesis has been a myth since the 70s. China would have to open up its capital account to offer a competitive reserve currency. That isn’t happening amidst a demographic decline and authoritarian government. Washington may be doing its best to kill dollar hegemony with its tariff and sanctions fevers. But the yuan isn’t a candidate outside propaganda. > If you're only buying dollars for petroleum Then you’re an idiot. You buy dollars to buy American products, probably financial products, or have them because you sold your crap to Americans who handed you dollars.
  - toomuchtodo 2y ago
    We differ in our perspective of long term American economic success (and export demand vs China) I believe. Despite the demographic story, China will automate. Admittedly, you’re the capital market expert, and my thesis could be deficient. https://www.weforum.org/stories/2024/06/how-china-s-shifting-industries-are-reshaping-its-long-term-growth-model/ https://www.weforum.org/stories/2024/06/how-china-s-shifting... https://www.aspi.org.au/report/critical-technology-tracker https://www.aspi.org.au/report/critical-technology-tracker https://www.reuters.com/technology/china-overtakes-germany-industrial-use-robots-says-report-2024-11-20/ https://www.reuters.com/technology/china-overtakes-germany-i...
Tiktaalik 2y ago
Meanwhile in Canada politicians are telling us that we need to expand oil production because "we're always going to need oil" and someone is gonna get rich and it should be us. The pain will be bad as Alberta etc doubles and triples down on pumping oil as the rest of the world in fact does not need oil.
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]
- wkat4242 2y ago
  Oil is not just used for fuel though. We use tons of it for plastics and I don't see that need going anywhere.
- tim333 2y ago
  I can see the point. We may not always need oil but while there is demand, better it comes from the Americas than Russia.

Tiktaalik 2y ago

We're heading down a crazy path where the rest of the world outside of North America has cleaner air and cheaper transportion options enabled by high quality Chinese EVs. Meanwhile life is worse and more expensive in wealthy NA, still chained to the whims of the oil market. All because of political choices in banning imports and not sufficiently pushing local auto makers to push for an EV transition. Really wild stuff to see NA that has always been at the technological bleeding edge, weirdly politicize vehicle engines and cede so much ground because it is so politically beholden to oil interests.

TacticalCoder 2y ago
It's not about beholding to oil interests. Does the USA wants to kill all its car manufacturers and commit industry-suicide like the EU just did? The EU is rendering countless people jobless and handing the auto market to the chinese so they can sell their spying devices on wheels (probably also complete with kill-switches that can be activated from China if needed: say in case of a full on war). It's just insanity. I think the EU is going to be a case study as to how quickly you can kill an entire industry by voting laws favoring a competing nation state instead of your own nation/countries. Be very careful what you wish for.
- triceratops 2y ago
  So the only options are batten down the hatches (tariffs) while continuing business as usual (ICE manufacturing) inside, or open the doors and surrender (let China take over the auto market)? What about option 3? Stand and fight. Make an effort. Design something electric that people actually want to buy. Build out the necessary charging infra on a war footing. Shape consumer behavior with tax policy. I could accept EV tariffs if they were meant to give domestic manufacturers breathing room to catch up. I don't see that anyone has gotten the memo though.
  - travisporter 2y ago
    Agreed. Another take has always been china doesn’t have environmental regulations so they can go faster. Is this true? on the face of it I don’t believe it because the insane cost differential would be like 10% cheaper Chinese evs not 50%. Automation was supposed to save the west from cheap labor but the Chinese manufacturers have that too

486sx33 2y ago

So China burns coal, to generate power, at huge heat and transmission loses, to power “clean” EV cars. Much worse for the planet. Clean gasoline cars, once they implement particulate filters on them, are going to be cheap, and pollute a whole lot less than burning coal. EVs will be an option but they’re going to have to force the chargers through the grid to only charge during the day to take advantage of solar, and properly account for upstream and downstream emissions on the battery pack manufacturing and disposal. A full life cycle has to be considered. A gasoline engine, runs for a very long lifetime now, and then immediately becomes high value scrap that can be used and sold immediately. No dangerous batteries to deal with.

triceratops 2y ago
> So China burns coal, to generate power, at huge heat and transmission loses, to power “clean” EV cars That's one more on the climate change/EV bingo card. No they burn coal to generate the electricity they were already using for everything they did before they started buying all these EVs. Most of their new electricity generation in the past 3 years - when EV adoption has taken off - is from wind, solar, and hydro. [1] > A gasoline engine, runs for a very long lifetime now, and then immediately becomes high value scrap that can be used and sold immediately. No dangerous batteries to deal with. Right because all the dangerous byproducts in a gasoline car - the gasoline, various oils and lubricants - have already been used up and discarded into the environment. Gasoline cars have lead-acid batteries, and those are plenty dangerous and nasty. An EV battery goes into a recycling plant, just like an ICE car battery. The rest is equally high value scrap that can be used and sold immediately. You probably think lithium extraction is bad for the environment too, right? While ignoring oil spills, methane leaks, and damage and water pollution from fracking? 1. So China burns coal, to generate power, at huge heat and transmission loses, to power “clean” EV cars
to11mtm 2y ago
> So China burns coal, to generate power, at huge heat and transmission loses, Are they truly burning coal or are they making syngas for use with a CCGT and shipping the coke off for their steel? (Probably a bit of both, my wager.) Cause a CCGT is gonna be -at least- as efficient as an atkinson cycle gas engine. > once they implement particulate filters on them, You can hypothetically do this with a coal plant too, and what's even better is, it's easier to 'check up on' one power plant vs thousands or millions of individuals to make sure the filter is present and being maintained. (e.x. Cat deletes on gas engines.) > A gasoline engine, runs for a very long lifetime now, Short of something with a Toyota HSD style setup, you've still got a lot of -other- components that break down in increasing frequency to support that. Your Steel Belt CVTs, your 8-10 speed transmissions with too much complexity slammed in resulting in various reliability issues... And lately almost every manufacturer, even Toyota, has had to do a recall on some engines due to very bad failure modes. And all of it in the name of trying to keep gas engines to the need for efficiency while also trying to add far more power than most people need in a daily.

deleted 2y ago

[deleted]

black_13 2y ago

[dead]

amai 2y ago

That is bad news for oil producing countries like Saudi Arabia or Russia, but good news for the rest of the world. It seems our planet will be saved by China and not by the USA.