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That was my initial gut reaction too, but the more I think about it, the more I think it makes sense: 1. Apple is increasingly a company who's primary growth a

That was my initial gut reaction too, but the more I think about it, the more I think it makes sense: 1. Apple is increasingly a company who's primary growth area is through services revenue and Adobe is one of the most successful services-revenue companies around. 2. Adobe's bread and butter is essentially native desktop apps, one of Apple's areas of expertise. 3. Adobe is vulnerable today with a specific market segment, who resents the high cost, quality issues, and subscription-only model of Creative Cloud. One thing I agree with is these wouldn't be professional tools the same way Adobe's tools are, they split the market between the high-end, which would continue to use Adobe products, and the low-end which would use these competitors. The low end would be content creators and smaller businesses. The biggest flaw here is around #3, not sure how Apple can capture that services revenue without creating a suite that has the same flaws with consumers that Creative Cloud has? I think they could emphasize quality, and probably come in at half the cost of CC or less, maybe $25 a month. Maybe that's enough?

wyre 2y ago
Apple doesn’t need to move their desktop software to a monthly fee to compete with Adobe, they can compete by stealing their users and locking them into Apple’s platform. If Apple came out with professional alternatives for photoshop, lightroom, and illustrator I would bet a large market segment will switch away from Adobe (and Windows) to Mac purchasing new hardware and tying those users into Apple’s ecosystem (Apple’s bread and butter).
- robenkleene 2y ago
  The problem with this viewpoint, is that's exactly what they've been doing with Logic and Final Cut and that's proved to be a failed strategy (both of those applications have shed users for the last decade, specifically the problem they've both made is prioritizing larger platform priorities over the needs of creators. E.g., they both introduced bundled file formats, bundled file formats are great for long-term platform goals [e.g., cross-device sync], but are terrible for professionals who need to micromanage massive individual media files, that are often edited with several different apps). The reason it's not working is the incentives internal to Apple aren't great, they aren't (significant) revenue generators, so they're seen as disposable, and by choosing the wrong priorities (platform over creators), they end up losing to competitors where it's a primary revenue generator, because those other apps are fighting tooth-and-nail to stay ahead. One way of solving all this is to try and make it a revenue generator, and I don't think a revenue generator at Apple's scale is possible without making it a subscription. Also just note that services has been Apple's most reliable recent growth area https://sixcolors.com/post/2024/05/2024-q1-apple-results-90-8-billion-revenue-services-record/ https://sixcolors.com/post/2024/05/2024-q1-apple-results-90-...
  - flats 2y ago
    What leads you to believe that Logic has been shedding users? What little information I can find on this suggests that Logic has in fact been growing slightly & has significant market share. I also think it’s a huge driver of Mac sales.
    - robenkleene 2y ago
      Yeah, this is mainly based on Ableton Live clearly eating everyone's lunch on the electronic music front, and myself following Logic's new features added over the last five to ten years (e.g., combination of copying Live-style looping/sampling features, and the ML session player stuff). Just from my observation these new features have been hitting very lukewarm with their audience. Logic (and Cubase) seem stuck between Pro Tools for live music recording and arranging, and Live for electronic music. The one area Logic still seems super strong to me is composing and arranging sample-based instruments, e.g., like you might do for a soundtrack. But that just seems like a small market. Curious if you have any counter information here? There's definitely a ton of room for me to be wrong on this.
      - flats 2y ago
        I think we both have a lot of room for being wrong! There seem to be no reliable sources for DAW market share, and I imagine all of these companies consider it in their interests to keep the number of active users of their software to themselves. So anything I have to say here is purely anecdotal. From my vantage point (Brooklyn-based creative music-maker regularly recording & performing), it’s a growing market and both Ableton _and_ Logic are doing pretty well. Ableton has some obvious strengths—its scene-based workflow & M4L in particular—but it’s also got a very opinionated UI & is a bit less intuitive/fluid for editing (at least from my perspective as a Logic user!). I know many people who use Logic to make creative music that involves both live recording and electronic instruments, and a lot of those people have switched away from Pro Tools because of its hideous UI, the subscription pricing, & the annoyance of iLok. I even know several professional, touring musicians who perform with MainStage & swear by it. In other words, I think that Logic has found a pretty broad audience of creative musicians who straddle the songwriting & electronic music worlds (which is more & more people every day). What makes you think that Ableton is eating everyone’s lunch in electronic music? I mean, I don’t think you’re wrong, honestly, & I’d in particular point to their purchase of Cycling ‘74 & successful hardware products like Push & Move, but I’m curious to hear details from your perspective. Definitely hoping that Gruber is wrong here & Logic stays the fantastic loss-leader it’s been for the last decade or so.
- pjmlp 2y ago
  Which can only work up to 10% of the world desktop market.
- coldtea 2y ago
  >Apple doesn’t need to move their desktop software to a monthly fee to compete with Adobe, they can compete by stealing their users and locking them into Apple’s platform. Apple "locking" was always overplayed, and this is even less true in 2024, where music and video are subscriptions (so you just switch to another service and still have access to all music, at worst you lose your playlists, big deal), most apps regular people use web based/cross platform, and pro graphics, video, music, business, and 3D stuff are all cross platform too. People switch to (and sometimes from) Resolve all the time, for example.
pjmlp 2y ago
Adobe portfolio is gigantic, they also have plenty of stuff for the server room. Also Apple owning 10% of the desktop market is hardly going to impact Adobe that much. The times when Adobe was Apple first are long gone.

wyre 2y ago

Apple doesn’t need to move their desktop software to a monthly fee to compete with Adobe, they can compete by stealing their users and locking them into Apple’s platform. If Apple came out with professional alternatives for photoshop, lightroom, and illustrator I would bet a large market segment will switch away from Adobe (and Windows) to Mac purchasing new hardware and tying those users into Apple’s ecosystem (Apple’s bread and butter).

robenkleene 2y ago
The problem with this viewpoint, is that's exactly what they've been doing with Logic and Final Cut and that's proved to be a failed strategy (both of those applications have shed users for the last decade, specifically the problem they've both made is prioritizing larger platform priorities over the needs of creators. E.g., they both introduced bundled file formats, bundled file formats are great for long-term platform goals [e.g., cross-device sync], but are terrible for professionals who need to micromanage massive individual media files, that are often edited with several different apps). The reason it's not working is the incentives internal to Apple aren't great, they aren't (significant) revenue generators, so they're seen as disposable, and by choosing the wrong priorities (platform over creators), they end up losing to competitors where it's a primary revenue generator, because those other apps are fighting tooth-and-nail to stay ahead. One way of solving all this is to try and make it a revenue generator, and I don't think a revenue generator at Apple's scale is possible without making it a subscription. Also just note that services has been Apple's most reliable recent growth area https://sixcolors.com/post/2024/05/2024-q1-apple-results-90-8-billion-revenue-services-record/ https://sixcolors.com/post/2024/05/2024-q1-apple-results-90-...
- flats 2y ago
  What leads you to believe that Logic has been shedding users? What little information I can find on this suggests that Logic has in fact been growing slightly & has significant market share. I also think it’s a huge driver of Mac sales.
  - robenkleene 2y ago
    Yeah, this is mainly based on Ableton Live clearly eating everyone's lunch on the electronic music front, and myself following Logic's new features added over the last five to ten years (e.g., combination of copying Live-style looping/sampling features, and the ML session player stuff). Just from my observation these new features have been hitting very lukewarm with their audience. Logic (and Cubase) seem stuck between Pro Tools for live music recording and arranging, and Live for electronic music. The one area Logic still seems super strong to me is composing and arranging sample-based instruments, e.g., like you might do for a soundtrack. But that just seems like a small market. Curious if you have any counter information here? There's definitely a ton of room for me to be wrong on this.
    - flats 2y ago
      I think we both have a lot of room for being wrong! There seem to be no reliable sources for DAW market share, and I imagine all of these companies consider it in their interests to keep the number of active users of their software to themselves. So anything I have to say here is purely anecdotal. From my vantage point (Brooklyn-based creative music-maker regularly recording & performing), it’s a growing market and both Ableton _and_ Logic are doing pretty well. Ableton has some obvious strengths—its scene-based workflow & M4L in particular—but it’s also got a very opinionated UI & is a bit less intuitive/fluid for editing (at least from my perspective as a Logic user!). I know many people who use Logic to make creative music that involves both live recording and electronic instruments, and a lot of those people have switched away from Pro Tools because of its hideous UI, the subscription pricing, & the annoyance of iLok. I even know several professional, touring musicians who perform with MainStage & swear by it. In other words, I think that Logic has found a pretty broad audience of creative musicians who straddle the songwriting & electronic music worlds (which is more & more people every day). What makes you think that Ableton is eating everyone’s lunch in electronic music? I mean, I don’t think you’re wrong, honestly, & I’d in particular point to their purchase of Cycling ‘74 & successful hardware products like Push & Move, but I’m curious to hear details from your perspective. Definitely hoping that Gruber is wrong here & Logic stays the fantastic loss-leader it’s been for the last decade or so.
pjmlp 2y ago
Which can only work up to 10% of the world desktop market.
coldtea 2y ago
>Apple doesn’t need to move their desktop software to a monthly fee to compete with Adobe, they can compete by stealing their users and locking them into Apple’s platform. Apple "locking" was always overplayed, and this is even less true in 2024, where music and video are subscriptions (so you just switch to another service and still have access to all music, at worst you lose your playlists, big deal), most apps regular people use web based/cross platform, and pro graphics, video, music, business, and 3D stuff are all cross platform too. People switch to (and sometimes from) Resolve all the time, for example.

pjmlp 2y ago

Adobe portfolio is gigantic, they also have plenty of stuff for the server room. Also Apple owning 10% of the desktop market is hardly going to impact Adobe that much. The times when Adobe was Apple first are long gone.