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Turning the Baltic into a "NATO lake" by controlling the Finland-Estonia strait would be an interesting idea, especially now with Finland and Sweden in the alli

by jagrsw 2y ago

Turning the Baltic into a "NATO lake" by controlling the Finland-Estonia strait would be an interesting idea, especially now with Finland and Sweden in the alliance. Effectively limiting Russian naval access from St. Petersburg (except for civilian traffic, subject to inspection) would certainly boost regional security. Article on this recently: https://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org/articles/2024/7/10/baltic-sea-now-called-a-nato-lake https://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org/articles/2024/7/10/b... An effective retaliation option, I guess kept in reserve, "just in case" retaliation is needed.

newsclues 2y ago
The Russians hate this and will do sneaky stuff to counter this.
- kjrfghslkdjfl 2y ago
  [dead]
- benterix 2y ago
  > The Russians I know it's a mental shortcut and if we wanted to be precise it would quickly become unwieldy so just a quick note, also to self, that the Russians I know don't have and don't want to have anything to do with this, are fed up with what is going on and just want to live in peace.
  - jagrsw 2y ago
    As a Pole by birth, I'm undoubtedly biased. However, it's not as simple as "Putin wants war, despite opposition from most Russians." Living near the USSR border and within the Soviet sphere of influence taught me that a vast majority of Russians prioritize a strong, assertive nation, often placing societal and economic development lower on their list of needs. If that means occasional invasions and killings, it's part of the game. Putin may achieve 80%+ support through rigged elections, but even without rigging, it's likely 60%+. So, it's not a simple dichotomy of the Russian people versus Putin - it's more complex. That said, I also have Russian friends (many now former Russians) who passionately hate the current government and condemn its actions.
    - benterix 2y ago
      While I agree with you, this is not a static phenomenon. For example, recent pools give some hope with the majority being in favor of ending the war: https://www.thebarentsobserver.com/news/declining-war-support-in-russia-poll/421245 https://www.thebarentsobserver.com/news/declining-war-suppor... This is the lowest support for the war in Russia since the beginning. I know the limitations of such polls but there is some truth behind them.
      - alkonaut 2y ago
        > being in favor of ending the war It would be good to hear how many that were in favor of ending the war because it's the right thing to do. Because it's unjust. Because it's an invasion of a sovereign nation. Not just "Because the sanctions make my butter too expensive". The difference being that if the former number is over 50% that might mean the people would be for change, for new leadership and direction. If the latter is above 50 that just means people want cheaper butter. Perhaps wait a bit and try invading later. Or invade some weaker nation.
        willy_k 2y ago
        I think saving their sons is a more pressing issue than the old-news sanctions. From a Russian perspective it’s not at all clear that it’s unjust; Ukraine was persecuting ethnic Russians and the initial claimed purpose of the war was to bring ethnic Russian regions back into Russia.
        aguaviva 2y ago
        From a Russian perspective From what its current regime says for internal and external propaganda purposes.
        willy_k 2y ago
        Yes, from the perspective of a Russian.
alkonaut 2y ago
Russia has already anticipated this problem and updated their nuclear doctrine to include nuclear first use also against countries that would "isolate" Russian territory (Presumably thinking of Crimea and Kaliningrad). Edit: Not sure what the downvote is. It's factually true. I don't think that necessarily means it's a bad idea or that it's a red line that should be observed when all other red lines are obviously illusions.
- lyu07282 2y ago
  It feels really meaningless to talk about "Russia" like this when in reality it's just Putin and his personal discretion, not "Russian nuclear doctrine". It's a dictatorship not a republic.
  - jltsiren 2y ago
    Russia is an oligarchic republic. It's neither a dictatorship nor a liberal democracy. And regardless of the power he has, Putin is still a product of the system. His eventual successor will quite likely be another similar leader.
    - quickthrowman 2y ago
      Russia is a mafia that owns both a gas station and (unfortunately for its neighbors) nuclear weapons.
      - hollerith 2y ago
        Russia is a civilization with 1200 years of history.
        jagrsw 2y ago
        It's more accurate to say Russia's history as a distinct entity goes back around 850 years. Before that, it was part of Kyivan Rus', and the term "Ruthenian" primarily referred to the people and territory of modern-day Ukraine. Moscow Rus' was initially a peripheral, tribal offshoot of the larger Kyivan polity.
deleted 2y ago
[deleted]

by jagrsw 2y ago

newsclues 2y ago

The Russians hate this and will do sneaky stuff to counter this.

kjrfghslkdjfl 2y ago
[dead]
benterix 2y ago
> The Russians I know it's a mental shortcut and if we wanted to be precise it would quickly become unwieldy so just a quick note, also to self, that the Russians I know don't have and don't want to have anything to do with this, are fed up with what is going on and just want to live in peace.
- jagrsw 2y ago
  As a Pole by birth, I'm undoubtedly biased. However, it's not as simple as "Putin wants war, despite opposition from most Russians." Living near the USSR border and within the Soviet sphere of influence taught me that a vast majority of Russians prioritize a strong, assertive nation, often placing societal and economic development lower on their list of needs. If that means occasional invasions and killings, it's part of the game. Putin may achieve 80%+ support through rigged elections, but even without rigging, it's likely 60%+. So, it's not a simple dichotomy of the Russian people versus Putin - it's more complex. That said, I also have Russian friends (many now former Russians) who passionately hate the current government and condemn its actions.
  - benterix 2y ago
    While I agree with you, this is not a static phenomenon. For example, recent pools give some hope with the majority being in favor of ending the war: https://www.thebarentsobserver.com/news/declining-war-support-in-russia-poll/421245 https://www.thebarentsobserver.com/news/declining-war-suppor... This is the lowest support for the war in Russia since the beginning. I know the limitations of such polls but there is some truth behind them.
    - alkonaut 2y ago
      > being in favor of ending the war It would be good to hear how many that were in favor of ending the war because it's the right thing to do. Because it's unjust. Because it's an invasion of a sovereign nation. Not just "Because the sanctions make my butter too expensive". The difference being that if the former number is over 50% that might mean the people would be for change, for new leadership and direction. If the latter is above 50 that just means people want cheaper butter. Perhaps wait a bit and try invading later. Or invade some weaker nation.
      - willy_k 2y ago
        I think saving their sons is a more pressing issue than the old-news sanctions. From a Russian perspective it’s not at all clear that it’s unjust; Ukraine was persecuting ethnic Russians and the initial claimed purpose of the war was to bring ethnic Russian regions back into Russia.
        aguaviva 2y ago
        From a Russian perspective From what its current regime says for internal and external propaganda purposes.
        willy_k 2y ago
        Yes, from the perspective of a Russian.

alkonaut 2y ago

Russia has already anticipated this problem and updated their nuclear doctrine to include nuclear first use also against countries that would "isolate" Russian territory (Presumably thinking of Crimea and Kaliningrad). Edit: Not sure what the downvote is. It's factually true. I don't think that necessarily means it's a bad idea or that it's a red line that should be observed when all other red lines are obviously illusions.

lyu07282 2y ago
It feels really meaningless to talk about "Russia" like this when in reality it's just Putin and his personal discretion, not "Russian nuclear doctrine". It's a dictatorship not a republic.
- jltsiren 2y ago
  Russia is an oligarchic republic. It's neither a dictatorship nor a liberal democracy. And regardless of the power he has, Putin is still a product of the system. His eventual successor will quite likely be another similar leader.
  - quickthrowman 2y ago
    Russia is a mafia that owns both a gas station and (unfortunately for its neighbors) nuclear weapons.
    - hollerith 2y ago
      Russia is a civilization with 1200 years of history.
      - jagrsw 2y ago
        It's more accurate to say Russia's history as a distinct entity goes back around 850 years. Before that, it was part of Kyivan Rus', and the term "Ruthenian" primarily referred to the people and territory of modern-day Ukraine. Moscow Rus' was initially a peripheral, tribal offshoot of the larger Kyivan polity.

deleted 2y ago

[deleted]