4 ms·

> There are two futures, both bad. The more likely scenario is a natural oscillation between these two outcomes, similar to how animals maintain oscillating po

by beAbU 2y ago

> There are two futures, both bad. The more likely scenario is a natural oscillation between these two outcomes, similar to how animals maintain oscillating population equilibrium that's controlled by space, resources and predation.

Cthulhu_ 2y ago
I mean one thing many people, myself included, have been clamoring for ages is that people can't afford to live and own property anymore. People can't afford to think about raising kids if they're stressed about your next paycheck and making rent. This is probably oversimplified and naive, but go back to the 80's economically where families could afford a family-raising sized home and a comfortable life on a single income. Bring jobs back to the smaller towns, which are safer and healthier places to raise families.
- tossandthrow 2y ago
  This sentiment is interesting and coexists in a world where real estate is super cheap the second you move out of urban centers. Combine this with the fact that is has never been easier to work remotely. From my perspective it is a matter of preference - people decide that their life style in urban centers is more important than having a resource surplus and starting a family.
  - arlort 2y ago
    > that is has never been easier to work remotely. Which still means it's almost impossible for almost everyone almost everywhere
- lotsofpulp 2y ago
  TFR was low even back in the 1980s, and especially the 1970s. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SPDYNTFRTINUSA https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SPDYNTFRTINUSA I am guessing the bump from late 1980s to 2000s was almost entirely due to immigrants, especially Latin American. Similar to a bump seen in other countries where immigrants coming from places with higher TFRs bumped it up, and within a couple decades, even those immigrant populations now have lower TFRs. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/children-per-woman-un?tab=chart&time=1950..latest&country=USA~CAN~GBR~AUS~FRA~DEU~NOR~SWE~FIN~CHE~ITA~ESP https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/children-per-woman-un?tab...
- anonzzzies 2y ago
  At least here people, including my grandparents who lived through WOII, lived outside cities, had to travel hours for work and worked the land for food. They had 10 kids and they helped in the household and on the land (only for their own food: animals, veg and fruit) while the dad was away 12+ hours of the day (4+ hours commute) (my dad also travelled 4+ hours every day for work by the way; fairly normal in the 80s here; not sure what happened). This is still just possible; you don't need to live in a city and, again at least where I live, the prices drop sharply only a few hours drive from every large city (1.5m euro vs 1000s to 10ks for land and houses). Everyone can afford a house or land, but everyone wants to live on the city where they generally can't. If you want to raise (many) kids, you can choose the same life as my grandparents had (who also could not afford a house in the big city but wanted one so built multiple (one for them and later for their kids including my parents) with their own hands in a small village), but it's not an easy thing; it never was an easy thing.

by beAbU 2y ago

Cthulhu_ 2y ago

I mean one thing many people, myself included, have been clamoring for ages is that people can't afford to live and own property anymore. People can't afford to think about raising kids if they're stressed about your next paycheck and making rent. This is probably oversimplified and naive, but go back to the 80's economically where families could afford a family-raising sized home and a comfortable life on a single income. Bring jobs back to the smaller towns, which are safer and healthier places to raise families.

tossandthrow 2y ago
This sentiment is interesting and coexists in a world where real estate is super cheap the second you move out of urban centers. Combine this with the fact that is has never been easier to work remotely. From my perspective it is a matter of preference - people decide that their life style in urban centers is more important than having a resource surplus and starting a family.
- arlort 2y ago
  > that is has never been easier to work remotely. Which still means it's almost impossible for almost everyone almost everywhere
lotsofpulp 2y ago
TFR was low even back in the 1980s, and especially the 1970s. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SPDYNTFRTINUSA https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SPDYNTFRTINUSA I am guessing the bump from late 1980s to 2000s was almost entirely due to immigrants, especially Latin American. Similar to a bump seen in other countries where immigrants coming from places with higher TFRs bumped it up, and within a couple decades, even those immigrant populations now have lower TFRs. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/children-per-woman-un?tab=chart&time=1950..latest&country=USA~CAN~GBR~AUS~FRA~DEU~NOR~SWE~FIN~CHE~ITA~ESP https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/children-per-woman-un?tab...
anonzzzies 2y ago
At least here people, including my grandparents who lived through WOII, lived outside cities, had to travel hours for work and worked the land for food. They had 10 kids and they helped in the household and on the land (only for their own food: animals, veg and fruit) while the dad was away 12+ hours of the day (4+ hours commute) (my dad also travelled 4+ hours every day for work by the way; fairly normal in the 80s here; not sure what happened). This is still just possible; you don't need to live in a city and, again at least where I live, the prices drop sharply only a few hours drive from every large city (1.5m euro vs 1000s to 10ks for land and houses). Everyone can afford a house or land, but everyone wants to live on the city where they generally can't. If you want to raise (many) kids, you can choose the same life as my grandparents had (who also could not afford a house in the big city but wanted one so built multiple (one for them and later for their kids including my parents) with their own hands in a small village), but it's not an easy thing; it never was an easy thing.