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We're third, between Poland and Hungary, and other countries are making serious investments. "Third, between Poland and Hungary" would be fine if we were talki

We're third, between Poland and Hungary, and other countries are making serious investments. "Third, between Poland and Hungary" would be fine if we were talking about production of goulash, or words with too many consonants, but we are talking about batteries, which are now a critical part of energy infrastructure and daily life. Also, the US battery production is almost exclusively Tesla, which is actually Panasonic, using a process that has still not been Americanized, using Japanese equipment, the most critical of which "in an area not accessible to non-Panasonic employees." It is also behind China on cost. Oh, and did I mention it is government-subsidized to a hilarious degree? In other words, it's a joke.

cromka 2y ago
To be fair, you asked yourself for about a trillion of subsidies?
- owenversteeg 2y ago
  >using a process that has still not been Americanized, using Japanese equipment, the most critical of which "in an area not accessible to non-Panasonic employees." It is also behind China on cost. Oh, and did I mention it is government-subsidized The subsidies aren't the problem here. The problem is that they are uncompetitive islands of foreign technology that lead nowhere, and they are _more expensive even after being heavily subsidized_.
pyrale 2y ago
I always enjoy threads where US HNers casually explain in a derogatory way that they should not depend on anyone for anything remotely useful. The cognitive dissonance between these threads and the ones where local law and taxes are an insult to their right to free trade is amazing.
- owenversteeg 2y ago
  It might surprise you to hear that I’m both American and European, and when in Europe I also encourage manufacturing. Being able to make things is a strategic advantage, period. Never did I say that we should not depend on anyone for anything. I simply believe that we should not depend on others for everything. I’m also not sure what you found derogatory in my comment, and I don’t understand what you’re getting at about local laws and taxes and how that would be relevant here.
tooltalk 2y ago
LG's 65/115GWh (online/planned) plant in Poland is the biggest battery factory in EU. But I believe the US surpassed the EU this year with the GM/LG's Ultium 2 factory. I have no doubt in my mind that the US battery manufacturing will become more competitive as they scale up and commoditize: GM for instance reported a 45% decline in battery cell cost YoY in 3Q 2023; followed by a sequential quarterly drop of $30/cell from the 1st 2024. With AMPC ($35/KWh), GM's per cell costs drops close to $80/KWh and is expected to fall further -- below $70/KWh in a couple of years. Panasonic (NV): 40 GWh Tesla (4680) : 9+?? GWh GM/LG Ultium 1: 45 GWh (2022) GM/LG Ultium 2: 45 GWh (2024) SK Georgia : 21 GWh (2021)

cromka 2y ago

To be fair, you asked yourself for about a trillion of subsidies?

owenversteeg 2y ago
>using a process that has still not been Americanized, using Japanese equipment, the most critical of which "in an area not accessible to non-Panasonic employees." It is also behind China on cost. Oh, and did I mention it is government-subsidized The subsidies aren't the problem here. The problem is that they are uncompetitive islands of foreign technology that lead nowhere, and they are _more expensive even after being heavily subsidized_.

pyrale 2y ago

I always enjoy threads where US HNers casually explain in a derogatory way that they should not depend on anyone for anything remotely useful. The cognitive dissonance between these threads and the ones where local law and taxes are an insult to their right to free trade is amazing.

owenversteeg 2y ago
It might surprise you to hear that I’m both American and European, and when in Europe I also encourage manufacturing. Being able to make things is a strategic advantage, period. Never did I say that we should not depend on anyone for anything. I simply believe that we should not depend on others for everything. I’m also not sure what you found derogatory in my comment, and I don’t understand what you’re getting at about local laws and taxes and how that would be relevant here.

tooltalk 2y ago

LG's 65/115GWh (online/planned) plant in Poland is the biggest battery factory in EU. But I believe the US surpassed the EU this year with the GM/LG's Ultium 2 factory. I have no doubt in my mind that the US battery manufacturing will become more competitive as they scale up and commoditize: GM for instance reported a 45% decline in battery cell cost YoY in 3Q 2023; followed by a sequential quarterly drop of $30/cell from the 1st 2024. With AMPC ($35/KWh), GM's per cell costs drops close to $80/KWh and is expected to fall further -- below $70/KWh in a couple of years. Panasonic (NV): 40 GWh Tesla (4680) : 9+?? GWh GM/LG Ultium 1: 45 GWh (2022) GM/LG Ultium 2: 45 GWh (2024) SK Georgia : 21 GWh (2021)