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The existing and impending protectionism almost guarantees the US car manufacturers are screwed. The rest of the world is already buying loads of BYDs, so US ca

The existing and impending protectionism almost guarantees the US car manufacturers are screwed. The rest of the world is already buying loads of BYDs, so US car makers are already competing with them and losing badly. They’ll be relegated to only being viable options in the US. Then we’ll be left with expensive and inefficient cars until we eventually give up on propping them up.

saturn8601 2y ago
The exceptions being Tesla and possibly Rivian and Lucid. With Tesla you know that Musk will find a way to keep going either by hook or by crook. Rivian is in a more uncertain situation but they have shown that they have the mindset of a SV company like Tesla and so we can't write them off yet. Finally Lucid seems to have a large well of cash from the Saudis so they may stick around as a niche maker.
- KennyBlanken 2y ago
  Rivian isn't doing so hot; they're still losing money like it's going out of style. Lucid is doing far better.
  - boredatoms 2y ago
    Thats the SV way though, rivian will do ok
KennyBlanken 2y ago
Which is why a bunch of this will never happen. They have a boatload of money sunk into EVs and the only thing more powerful than christian nationalists are corporations, especially auto manufacturers. A large number of red states have foreign car company factories. If those scale back or shut down, people are going to be pissed. Dollars to donuts all those car companies have plant idling and layoff plans all drawn up and ready to go the second tariffs come in. I half want to see it for the /r/leopardsatetheirfaces moment. Who would have thought it'd be unwise to have a man who bankrupted multiple casinos (by shuffling personal debts into them), an entire sports league, an airline, and failed to sell alcohol and beef to Americans...be put in charge of a national economy. He'll make a lot of bluster, Big Three will tell him to knock it the fuck off, he'll find someone to blame for his base (probably the auto company execs), and go back to eating Hamberders while staring at a national security brief written at a 3rd grade English level.
- rcpt 2y ago
  During his first term he made it so that we can't buy BYD here. No way that's changing now.
  - piva00 2y ago
    BYD has been expanding a lot since then, they have much more money than 4-6 years ago, they've rolled out more factories around the world. It's not a given since now they have both more experience, and more cash, the American market is huge so they might try to find the loopholes this time to have their products in the USA. Probably much harder if tariffs on Canada/Mexico happen but if those don't materialise (which is quite likely because, well, it's going to fuck with American food prices, energy, etc.) then BYD's factory in Mexico will probably be there, ready to start exporting.
jillesvangurp 2y ago
The US export market for vehicles will definitely suffer. But it was already suffering even before the tariffs. It's very simple: the EV market is growing at around 20% globally this year. That's despite all the whining from some manufacturers that there's no demand for EVs. Which is true but only for their EVs. Because they simply aren't good enough. Too expensive to make. Not comparing well to cheaper competitors, etc. Take your pick. They aren't selling well and that's a problem for the manufacturers that are making them. But it's not true for other manufacturers that are growing. Even in the US the EV market is expanding. Either way, that EV market growth is in the context of an overall car market that isn't growing anywhere near 20%. So, EVs are growing at the expense of legacy car makers. Their market share is effectively shrinking. By about 1/5th a year. They have cost related to that for downsizing production capacity, getting rid of staff (and the associated compensation packages), dealing with related strikes, etc. Many of these companies won't make it. It would take many billions in $s of investment in R&D, new products, new production facilities, etc. And with many of these companies slowing down those investments, it's not going to magically improve for them. It's a death spiral. There are also no signs of EV market growth slowing down much further. With price parity effectively there if you have access to BYDs (which much of the world does), it's game over for ICE.
- cen4 2y ago
  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Managed_decline https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Managed_decline
  - jillesvangurp 2y ago
    Given the overall panic levels in the industry, I'd say it's not that well managed.
- edwcross 2y ago
  Don't worry, in Europe, the incumbent manufacturers have a much better way to prevent EV sales: lack of charging spots. Unless you are rich enough to own a house and install your own charger, the law still does not mandate, even for apartment buildings currently under construction, electrical plugs in parking spots. Which means that, if you rent, you can't buy an EV. If you own your apartment, you STILL can't buy an EV (unless you convince everyone else to spend at least 5k€/spot to install such plugs, and wait 2-3 years).
YetAnotherNick 2y ago
> The existing and impending protectionism almost guarantees the US car manufacturers are screwed Your conclusion is this but your justification proves the opposite.

saturn8601 2y ago

The exceptions being Tesla and possibly Rivian and Lucid. With Tesla you know that Musk will find a way to keep going either by hook or by crook. Rivian is in a more uncertain situation but they have shown that they have the mindset of a SV company like Tesla and so we can't write them off yet. Finally Lucid seems to have a large well of cash from the Saudis so they may stick around as a niche maker.

KennyBlanken 2y ago
Rivian isn't doing so hot; they're still losing money like it's going out of style. Lucid is doing far better.
- boredatoms 2y ago
  Thats the SV way though, rivian will do ok

KennyBlanken 2y ago

Which is why a bunch of this will never happen. They have a boatload of money sunk into EVs and the only thing more powerful than christian nationalists are corporations, especially auto manufacturers. A large number of red states have foreign car company factories. If those scale back or shut down, people are going to be pissed. Dollars to donuts all those car companies have plant idling and layoff plans all drawn up and ready to go the second tariffs come in. I half want to see it for the /r/leopardsatetheirfaces moment. Who would have thought it'd be unwise to have a man who bankrupted multiple casinos (by shuffling personal debts into them), an entire sports league, an airline, and failed to sell alcohol and beef to Americans...be put in charge of a national economy. He'll make a lot of bluster, Big Three will tell him to knock it the fuck off, he'll find someone to blame for his base (probably the auto company execs), and go back to eating Hamberders while staring at a national security brief written at a 3rd grade English level.

rcpt 2y ago
During his first term he made it so that we can't buy BYD here. No way that's changing now.
- piva00 2y ago
  BYD has been expanding a lot since then, they have much more money than 4-6 years ago, they've rolled out more factories around the world. It's not a given since now they have both more experience, and more cash, the American market is huge so they might try to find the loopholes this time to have their products in the USA. Probably much harder if tariffs on Canada/Mexico happen but if those don't materialise (which is quite likely because, well, it's going to fuck with American food prices, energy, etc.) then BYD's factory in Mexico will probably be there, ready to start exporting.

jillesvangurp 2y ago

The US export market for vehicles will definitely suffer. But it was already suffering even before the tariffs. It's very simple: the EV market is growing at around 20% globally this year. That's despite all the whining from some manufacturers that there's no demand for EVs. Which is true but only for their EVs. Because they simply aren't good enough. Too expensive to make. Not comparing well to cheaper competitors, etc. Take your pick. They aren't selling well and that's a problem for the manufacturers that are making them. But it's not true for other manufacturers that are growing. Even in the US the EV market is expanding. Either way, that EV market growth is in the context of an overall car market that isn't growing anywhere near 20%. So, EVs are growing at the expense of legacy car makers. Their market share is effectively shrinking. By about 1/5th a year. They have cost related to that for downsizing production capacity, getting rid of staff (and the associated compensation packages), dealing with related strikes, etc. Many of these companies won't make it. It would take many billions in $s of investment in R&D, new products, new production facilities, etc. And with many of these companies slowing down those investments, it's not going to magically improve for them. It's a death spiral. There are also no signs of EV market growth slowing down much further. With price parity effectively there if you have access to BYDs (which much of the world does), it's game over for ICE.

cen4 2y ago
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Managed_decline https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Managed_decline
- jillesvangurp 2y ago
  Given the overall panic levels in the industry, I'd say it's not that well managed.
edwcross 2y ago
Don't worry, in Europe, the incumbent manufacturers have a much better way to prevent EV sales: lack of charging spots. Unless you are rich enough to own a house and install your own charger, the law still does not mandate, even for apartment buildings currently under construction, electrical plugs in parking spots. Which means that, if you rent, you can't buy an EV. If you own your apartment, you STILL can't buy an EV (unless you convince everyone else to spend at least 5k€/spot to install such plugs, and wait 2-3 years).

YetAnotherNick 2y ago

> The existing and impending protectionism almost guarantees the US car manufacturers are screwed Your conclusion is this but your justification proves the opposite.