It's not a false analogy - predicting the precise temperature tomorrow is analagous with predicting the exact numbers tomorrow, not the probabilities of the num

It's not a false analogy - predicting the precise temperature tomorrow is analagous with predicting the exact numbers tomorrow, not the probabilities of the numbers tomorrow. Climate predictions are predictions of long-run means and weather predictions are predictions of short-run outcomes. Consider that the ball being drawn out of the lottery machine is not truly random and probabilistic, either - it is a direct result of the laws of physics, the starting condition of the ball-drawing machine and the inputs to it. Just like the ball-drawing machine, the short-run weather in the next minute, hour, day or week is a highly noisy process that can be accurately modelled as a random, probabilistic process. This is how weather forecasts work - they'll give the probability of rain in the next 24 hours.