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Look at the population of Russia and Ukraine. Even with endless material Ukraine is going to run out of a meat puppets long before Russia.

by refurb 2y ago

AnimalMuppet 2y ago
Not if they have enough materiel to kill at a 4:1 ratio or better.
- consumer451 2y ago
  Exactly. Ukraine has claimed a recent 6:1 ratio, and Moscow has found it necessary to bring in reinforcements from North Korea.
  - dralley 2y ago
    Ukraine doesn't claim a 6:1 ratio overall. Only in certain parts of the front line during certain periods of fighting is it so lopsided, such as the recent Russian attempts to retake Kursk or the early assaults on Bakhmut and Vulhedar. An optimistic estimate for the overall war would be more like 2.5 to 1, but realistically it's probably lower. Equipment kills are another story.
    - AtlasBarfed 2y ago
      Russia is losing 1000+ a day. I get thee is propaganda, but it would be news is Ukraine was losing 400/day. The rate of Russian advance (that is, extremely slow) would imply the kill rations are very high in Ukraine's favor
      - dralley 2y ago
        You can't really imply kill ratios by the speed of the advance, it doesn't work like that.
        AtlasBarfed 2y ago
        Go look at the history of WWI. That is the historical analogue of the conflict.
        dralley 2y ago
        No, it's not. Fast advances often mean that the defender pulled back their forces, not that the defender got destroyed.
        AtlasBarfed 2y ago
        Fast advances? Who is talking about fast advances? What is happening is almost trench warfare. Ultra-slow front advancement, ultra-high casualties. Now, maybe what you mean is when Ukraine has successes they are rapid and wide ranging like the Donbas counterassault about a year ago or the Kursk incursion. But Russia has advanced only about 30 miles in the last year, tops. All while going through multiple rounds of conscription, mercenaries, and now North Korean shock troops. The ultra slow front advancement combined with massive numbers of poorly trained conscripts means: really high casualty rate for the gained territory. My sources are generally the UK media. TimesRadio is pretty rah-rah Ukraine, but other sources generally back up the fundamental claim: Russia is lose 1000-1500/day to gain really small amounts of territory. For russia to win they'll need to progress another 200 miles, which at this rate means 2-3 million dead russians or more. Russian advances are enabled by artillery shells. If the artillery losses mount and production issues appear in shell production, then suddenly the Russian ground forces will be sitting ducks and Ukraine will counterattack very effectively.
  - geysersam 2y ago
    Bizarre propaganda.
- refurb 2y ago
  It's not like Russia is some undeveloped country - they have as advanced materiel as any major power. How would Ukraine ever achieve that kind of kill ratio?
  - consumer451 2y ago
    By Russia using "meat wave tactics." Here is a sober assessment of the strategy from Anders Puck Nielsen. He is an extremely well informed source on these matters. I highly recommend all of his videos. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-8ZPbnVqHrY https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-8ZPbnVqHrY
    - NicoJuicy 2y ago
      Only checked the first few minutes ( if I even got there). His opinion is really bad. Listen to his first minutes and compare it with my "couch" take vs his "well informed" opinion. --- Russia doesn't have unlimited resources and they are not grinding the meat assault to let the west fear. Russia needs to pay a lot to get it going, their resources are getting depleted, things that were already known ( eg. Demographics). Why they are so willing to conquer Ukraine is simply because they went to add x million people to attack and fix that to prepare for a next meat grinding war. Russia hasn't got unlimited resources. They need external help. They are not going all in. They don't even enforce military conscription in the well known areas. They are just down the rabbit hole now and we just need to support Ukraine more. --- now listened to it completely --- He's even wrong about why the west is funding Ukraine. Most of them want Ukraine to win, definitely neighbors of Ukraine that know Russia, or look at how the Netherlands is supporting Ukraine. The rest, thinks at least there should be enough funds to Ukraine to deplete Russia from their capable men or their tanks ( which is actually happening) and helps NATO. I actually hope that now NATO has expanded to what was expected, that military aid increases. The ones that want to stop funding Ukraine are the dumbest people in politics and believe in fairy tales that Russia claims or are literally Russian funded.
  - AtlasBarfed 2y ago
    We are approaching the third year and you're unaware to the degree the Russian military industrial complex was revealed as a fraud? The NATO concern with Russia in a conventional conflict isn't whether they would win, it's if they would win so convincingly that Russia would immediately escalate to nukes.
dralley 2y ago
Unless the Russian economy collapses first. The ruble has lost 10% of it's value in just the past week. Inflation on many items is near 70% despite interest rates currently being set at 21%. It's spiralling a bit recently due to a renewed wave of sanctions enforcement and tanking petroleum revenues. Now, that doesn't mean it will collapse, but it does mean they can't keep doing this forever. Number of soldiers available isn't the only factor that decides whether a nation can sustain a war. Plus their other geopolitical projects are starting to crumble a bit. See: current events in Syria.
- jiggawatts 2y ago
  I’m out the loop a bit… what’s going on in Syria that would affect the war in Ukraine?
  - dralley 2y ago
    Rebel groups launched an offensive against the Russian-backed Syrian government over the past 48 hours and have retaken a large chunk of territory near Aleppo. Russian military intervention is arguably the only reason the Syrian regime survived the civil war, but this time the Russian military has their own problems and can't intervene without stealing resources from their efforts in Ukraine.
- sergiomattei 2y ago
  Isn’t this also a case of “the market can remain irrational for longer than you remain solvent”?
protocolture 2y ago
Yeah but look at that border with NATO that Putin keeps manned. He cant just dump his entire military into ukraine like a lot of pundits predicted.
- staticautomatic 2y ago
  Or what, NATO will invade?
  - protocolture 2y ago
    I mean is it so far from possibility?
- NicoJuicy 2y ago
  ? Russia barely has soldiers and defense at those borders
NicoJuicy 2y ago
It's Russia that requires Africans for it's jobs and North Koreaans/Syrians for the war ( with very high pay) Invading leads to more casualties than defending.
ashoeafoot 2y ago
So it builts robots. Ratio is already 5/1. Never give in Giving in got us here!

Look at the population of Russia and Ukraine. Even with endless material Ukraine is going to run out of a meat puppets long before Russia.

by refurb 2y ago

Look at the population of Russia and Ukraine. Even with endless material Ukraine is going to run out of a meat puppets long before Russia.

AnimalMuppet 2y ago

Not if they have enough materiel to kill at a 4:1 ratio or better.

consumer451 2y ago
Exactly. Ukraine has claimed a recent 6:1 ratio, and Moscow has found it necessary to bring in reinforcements from North Korea.
- dralley 2y ago
  Ukraine doesn't claim a 6:1 ratio overall. Only in certain parts of the front line during certain periods of fighting is it so lopsided, such as the recent Russian attempts to retake Kursk or the early assaults on Bakhmut and Vulhedar. An optimistic estimate for the overall war would be more like 2.5 to 1, but realistically it's probably lower. Equipment kills are another story.
  - AtlasBarfed 2y ago
    Russia is losing 1000+ a day. I get thee is propaganda, but it would be news is Ukraine was losing 400/day. The rate of Russian advance (that is, extremely slow) would imply the kill rations are very high in Ukraine's favor
    - dralley 2y ago
      You can't really imply kill ratios by the speed of the advance, it doesn't work like that.
      - AtlasBarfed 2y ago
        Go look at the history of WWI. That is the historical analogue of the conflict.
        dralley 2y ago
        No, it's not. Fast advances often mean that the defender pulled back their forces, not that the defender got destroyed.
        AtlasBarfed 2y ago
        Fast advances? Who is talking about fast advances? What is happening is almost trench warfare. Ultra-slow front advancement, ultra-high casualties. Now, maybe what you mean is when Ukraine has successes they are rapid and wide ranging like the Donbas counterassault about a year ago or the Kursk incursion. But Russia has advanced only about 30 miles in the last year, tops. All while going through multiple rounds of conscription, mercenaries, and now North Korean shock troops. The ultra slow front advancement combined with massive numbers of poorly trained conscripts means: really high casualty rate for the gained territory. My sources are generally the UK media. TimesRadio is pretty rah-rah Ukraine, but other sources generally back up the fundamental claim: Russia is lose 1000-1500/day to gain really small amounts of territory. For russia to win they'll need to progress another 200 miles, which at this rate means 2-3 million dead russians or more. Russian advances are enabled by artillery shells. If the artillery losses mount and production issues appear in shell production, then suddenly the Russian ground forces will be sitting ducks and Ukraine will counterattack very effectively.
- geysersam 2y ago
  Bizarre propaganda.
refurb 2y ago
It's not like Russia is some undeveloped country - they have as advanced materiel as any major power. How would Ukraine ever achieve that kind of kill ratio?
- consumer451 2y ago
  By Russia using "meat wave tactics." Here is a sober assessment of the strategy from Anders Puck Nielsen. He is an extremely well informed source on these matters. I highly recommend all of his videos. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-8ZPbnVqHrY https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-8ZPbnVqHrY
  - NicoJuicy 2y ago
    Only checked the first few minutes ( if I even got there). His opinion is really bad. Listen to his first minutes and compare it with my "couch" take vs his "well informed" opinion. --- Russia doesn't have unlimited resources and they are not grinding the meat assault to let the west fear. Russia needs to pay a lot to get it going, their resources are getting depleted, things that were already known ( eg. Demographics). Why they are so willing to conquer Ukraine is simply because they went to add x million people to attack and fix that to prepare for a next meat grinding war. Russia hasn't got unlimited resources. They need external help. They are not going all in. They don't even enforce military conscription in the well known areas. They are just down the rabbit hole now and we just need to support Ukraine more. --- now listened to it completely --- He's even wrong about why the west is funding Ukraine. Most of them want Ukraine to win, definitely neighbors of Ukraine that know Russia, or look at how the Netherlands is supporting Ukraine. The rest, thinks at least there should be enough funds to Ukraine to deplete Russia from their capable men or their tanks ( which is actually happening) and helps NATO. I actually hope that now NATO has expanded to what was expected, that military aid increases. The ones that want to stop funding Ukraine are the dumbest people in politics and believe in fairy tales that Russia claims or are literally Russian funded.
- AtlasBarfed 2y ago
  We are approaching the third year and you're unaware to the degree the Russian military industrial complex was revealed as a fraud? The NATO concern with Russia in a conventional conflict isn't whether they would win, it's if they would win so convincingly that Russia would immediately escalate to nukes.

dralley 2y ago

Unless the Russian economy collapses first. The ruble has lost 10% of it's value in just the past week. Inflation on many items is near 70% despite interest rates currently being set at 21%. It's spiralling a bit recently due to a renewed wave of sanctions enforcement and tanking petroleum revenues. Now, that doesn't mean it will collapse, but it does mean they can't keep doing this forever. Number of soldiers available isn't the only factor that decides whether a nation can sustain a war. Plus their other geopolitical projects are starting to crumble a bit. See: current events in Syria.

jiggawatts 2y ago
I’m out the loop a bit… what’s going on in Syria that would affect the war in Ukraine?
- dralley 2y ago
  Rebel groups launched an offensive against the Russian-backed Syrian government over the past 48 hours and have retaken a large chunk of territory near Aleppo. Russian military intervention is arguably the only reason the Syrian regime survived the civil war, but this time the Russian military has their own problems and can't intervene without stealing resources from their efforts in Ukraine.
sergiomattei 2y ago
Isn’t this also a case of “the market can remain irrational for longer than you remain solvent”?

protocolture 2y ago

Yeah but look at that border with NATO that Putin keeps manned. He cant just dump his entire military into ukraine like a lot of pundits predicted.

staticautomatic 2y ago
Or what, NATO will invade?
- protocolture 2y ago
  I mean is it so far from possibility?
NicoJuicy 2y ago
? Russia barely has soldiers and defense at those borders

NicoJuicy 2y ago

It's Russia that requires Africans for it's jobs and North Koreaans/Syrians for the war ( with very high pay) Invading leads to more casualties than defending.

ashoeafoot 2y ago

So it builts robots. Ratio is already 5/1. Never give in Giving in got us here!