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Exponentials are always hard to grasp. > It took the solar PV industry 68 years to reach 1 TW of installed capacity - from 1954-2022. > It has taken only 2 ye

Exponentials are always hard to grasp. > It took the solar PV industry 68 years to reach 1 TW of installed capacity - from 1954-2022. > It has taken only 2 years to reach the next TW (2022-2024), with the 2 TW milestone reached in recent weeks according to estimates calculated by the Global Solar Council and SolarPower Europe. In 2023 we built 450 GW, we will be interesting to see where we land in 2024. Either way we are looking at a complete reshaping of the global energy system before 2030.

toomuchtodo 2y ago
In uncertain times, this is excellent and refreshing news, because it means it will be very hard for fossil interests to slow the avalanche of clean energy transition simply out of cost decline and manufacturing learning rate figures. Too early to tell how quickly deployment velocity will increase (cost of capital, supply chain, labor constraints), but existing manufacturing capacity (~1.1TW) is built; that will not slow down. PV printer goes brrr.
- kragen 2y ago
  Using GSC's 20% estimated capacity factor, you'd need 100TW of PV installed capacity to satisfy even current world marketed energy consumption of around 20TW, which would be 90 years at 1.1TW per year. But atmospheric carbon capture, not to mention other advancements, will probably require a significant amount of energy on top of that. Exponential growth, by contrast, would raise these 2TW to the required 100TW in 20 years if we assume a 22% annual growth rate, 10 years if we assume 48%.
  - toomuchtodo 2y ago
    Think in systems. Yes, it is going to take some time to continue to deploy clean energy globally to meet total human energy consumption. But, as we hit economic inflection points, that will rapidly force coal and fossil gas out of the mix (unless someone with deep pockets is willing to light fiat on fire to keep uneconomic generation online). Once that fossil generation is demolished, it will be unlikely it comes back, locking in a clean path forward. Pakistan comes to mind, where so much solar is coming online from individuals and businesses, utility demand is rapidly being destroyed (potentially stranding those utility fossil generation assets and their capital investment). The sun is almost free, and batteries are getting cheap fast. Enough sunlight falls on the Earth in a few hours to power humanity for a year. https://www.dw.com/en/pakistan-solar-power-renewable-energy-power-grid-v2/a-70885544 https://www.dw.com/en/pakistan-solar-power-renewable-energy-... https://oilprice.com/Alternative-Energy/Solar-Energy/The-Unintended-Consequences-of-Pakistans-Solar-Energy-Boom.html https://oilprice.com/Alternative-Energy/Solar-Energy/The-Uni...
    - kragen 2y ago
      Agreed! Thank you very much for the DW article; I hadn't seen that, though I did mention that dynamic in https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42266903 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42266903. One nitpick, though. The article says, "Pakistan's solar revolution is only possible because of the plummeting cost of solar PV modules, which have reduced in price by 90% in the last 15 years alone," but the correct number is 94%, from €1.67/Wp for crystalline panels in China in November 02009 http://web.archive.org/web/20121027002200/http://www.solarserver.com/service/pvx-spot-market-price-index-solar-pv-modules.html http://web.archive.org/web/20121027002200/http://www.solarse... to €0.10/Wp today https://www.solarserver.de/photovoltaik-preis-pv-modul-preisindex/ https://www.solarserver.de/photovoltaik-preis-pv-modul-preis.... So the article understates the actual price drop by almost a factor of 2.
    - abdullahkhalids 2y ago
      > (potentially stranding those utility fossil generation assets and their capital investment). This is not true. For most of Pakistan's power plants, the loans (denominated in US dollars) were given in exchange of sovereign guarantees by the State of Pakistan. So, the capitalists, in theory, don't have anything to worry about. The whole country could switch to renewables, and the State of Pakistan will still have to pay back on their investments. The reason for the sovereign guarantee is because Pakistan does not have a stable political landscape, so the free market risk is too high for such large investments. In practice, the government is forcing local investors to renegotiate some of the loan terms or contracts to reduce its payment obligations [1]. When I say forcing, I mean, mafia style. It's not clear how much this will help. [1] https://www.brecorder.com/news/40331398 https://www.brecorder.com/news/40331398
      - algo_trader 2y ago
        Also see my comment here https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42268194 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42268194 If you are a local resident, is this true?
      - toomuchtodo 2y ago
        Someone is taking a haircut on that debt, that is the stranding. Whether it’s Pakistan, the World Bank, or institutional investors, ¯\_(ツ)_/¯. They could forgive the debt instead, but humans gonna human. Sovereign defaults are a thing, and sometimes necessary. It’s just numbers in a spreadsheet or database after all.
- jonnycomputer 2y ago
  The energy transition is happening, whether Republicans like it or not. It'll happen even if they take away the IRA. Maybe not as fast, maybe the US will be left behind, but it will happen.
  - toomuchtodo 2y ago
    I hope you’re right.
rogerrogerr 2y ago
They’re almost always S-curves; but no one knows where the inflection point will be.
- kragen 2y ago
  Probably https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42266903 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42266903 provides some useful clues about where the inflection point will be. 2 terawatts is about 1/64000 of the 128000 terawatts of ground-level insolation. Probably people will not cover literally every square meter of the planet with solar panels, but why would they stop much short of that goal? In Shandong they're already building a 1-gigawatt solar farm offshore, 20 years earlier than I expected people to start doing that: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l_MlFOizMBo https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l_MlFOizMBo The expected capacity factor for the Shandong project is 20.3%.

toomuchtodo 2y ago

In uncertain times, this is excellent and refreshing news, because it means it will be very hard for fossil interests to slow the avalanche of clean energy transition simply out of cost decline and manufacturing learning rate figures. Too early to tell how quickly deployment velocity will increase (cost of capital, supply chain, labor constraints), but existing manufacturing capacity (~1.1TW) is built; that will not slow down. PV printer goes brrr.

kragen 2y ago
Using GSC's 20% estimated capacity factor, you'd need 100TW of PV installed capacity to satisfy even current world marketed energy consumption of around 20TW, which would be 90 years at 1.1TW per year. But atmospheric carbon capture, not to mention other advancements, will probably require a significant amount of energy on top of that. Exponential growth, by contrast, would raise these 2TW to the required 100TW in 20 years if we assume a 22% annual growth rate, 10 years if we assume 48%.
- toomuchtodo 2y ago
  Think in systems. Yes, it is going to take some time to continue to deploy clean energy globally to meet total human energy consumption. But, as we hit economic inflection points, that will rapidly force coal and fossil gas out of the mix (unless someone with deep pockets is willing to light fiat on fire to keep uneconomic generation online). Once that fossil generation is demolished, it will be unlikely it comes back, locking in a clean path forward. Pakistan comes to mind, where so much solar is coming online from individuals and businesses, utility demand is rapidly being destroyed (potentially stranding those utility fossil generation assets and their capital investment). The sun is almost free, and batteries are getting cheap fast. Enough sunlight falls on the Earth in a few hours to power humanity for a year. https://www.dw.com/en/pakistan-solar-power-renewable-energy-power-grid-v2/a-70885544 https://www.dw.com/en/pakistan-solar-power-renewable-energy-... https://oilprice.com/Alternative-Energy/Solar-Energy/The-Unintended-Consequences-of-Pakistans-Solar-Energy-Boom.html https://oilprice.com/Alternative-Energy/Solar-Energy/The-Uni...
  - kragen 2y ago
    Agreed! Thank you very much for the DW article; I hadn't seen that, though I did mention that dynamic in https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42266903 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42266903. One nitpick, though. The article says, "Pakistan's solar revolution is only possible because of the plummeting cost of solar PV modules, which have reduced in price by 90% in the last 15 years alone," but the correct number is 94%, from €1.67/Wp for crystalline panels in China in November 02009 http://web.archive.org/web/20121027002200/http://www.solarserver.com/service/pvx-spot-market-price-index-solar-pv-modules.html http://web.archive.org/web/20121027002200/http://www.solarse... to €0.10/Wp today https://www.solarserver.de/photovoltaik-preis-pv-modul-preisindex/ https://www.solarserver.de/photovoltaik-preis-pv-modul-preis.... So the article understates the actual price drop by almost a factor of 2.
  - abdullahkhalids 2y ago
    > (potentially stranding those utility fossil generation assets and their capital investment). This is not true. For most of Pakistan's power plants, the loans (denominated in US dollars) were given in exchange of sovereign guarantees by the State of Pakistan. So, the capitalists, in theory, don't have anything to worry about. The whole country could switch to renewables, and the State of Pakistan will still have to pay back on their investments. The reason for the sovereign guarantee is because Pakistan does not have a stable political landscape, so the free market risk is too high for such large investments. In practice, the government is forcing local investors to renegotiate some of the loan terms or contracts to reduce its payment obligations [1]. When I say forcing, I mean, mafia style. It's not clear how much this will help. [1] https://www.brecorder.com/news/40331398 https://www.brecorder.com/news/40331398
    - algo_trader 2y ago
      Also see my comment here https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42268194 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42268194 If you are a local resident, is this true?
    - toomuchtodo 2y ago
      Someone is taking a haircut on that debt, that is the stranding. Whether it’s Pakistan, the World Bank, or institutional investors, ¯\_(ツ)_/¯. They could forgive the debt instead, but humans gonna human. Sovereign defaults are a thing, and sometimes necessary. It’s just numbers in a spreadsheet or database after all.
jonnycomputer 2y ago
The energy transition is happening, whether Republicans like it or not. It'll happen even if they take away the IRA. Maybe not as fast, maybe the US will be left behind, but it will happen.
- toomuchtodo 2y ago
  I hope you’re right.

rogerrogerr 2y ago

They’re almost always S-curves; but no one knows where the inflection point will be.

kragen 2y ago
Probably https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42266903 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42266903 provides some useful clues about where the inflection point will be. 2 terawatts is about 1/64000 of the 128000 terawatts of ground-level insolation. Probably people will not cover literally every square meter of the planet with solar panels, but why would they stop much short of that goal? In Shandong they're already building a 1-gigawatt solar farm offshore, 20 years earlier than I expected people to start doing that: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l_MlFOizMBo https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l_MlFOizMBo The expected capacity factor for the Shandong project is 20.3%.