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A large spread between min and max bet coupled with a frequently shuffled deck makes martingale a surprisingly effective strategy. It's non-intuitive but it wor

A large spread between min and max bet coupled with a frequently shuffled deck makes martingale a surprisingly effective strategy. It's non-intuitive but it works.

treetalker 2y ago
Positive expected value, or effective as in "lose slower"? My understanding was that Martingale is (almost?) always negative expected value.
- andreareina 2y ago
  Martingale depends on (a) an infinite bankroll, and (b) being able to place an arbitrarily large bet, neither of which hold in the real world.
  - ScottPowers 2y ago
    [dead]
genewitch 2y ago
martingale's expected payout at the end of the run of bets is whatever the first bet was. Reverse martingale is a viable betting strategy, one which when employed at craps will get you real close to the -0.16% expected payout. martingale you increase your bet when you lose, and go back to your base bet when you win. Reverse martingale you have tiered bets, i use 5 tiers, just 1-5 times the base bet. I do $5 craps, so on the pass line i'll put $5. win, put $10. win, put $15, win put $15, win put $20, win put $25, and $25 then on out. if at any point you lose you go back to base bet, $5 in my case. You'll note that after winning the $15 bet, i am no longer betting my money, all further bets in that run are all the casino's money. That is why i like this method. I go in with $200, i get 40 chips, i get to lose 40 games in a row. I've only walked out of a casino loser once, too. reverse martingale works with any game where you can choose how much to bet, including video poker, roulette, and keno i guess. I wouldn't use it on poker, because betting is a different strategy, and i wouldn't use it on blackjack as it's "too choppy", especially with lots of people and 6 decks, imo. The best bet for the player in the casino is "don't come" with odds, after the button is on - on the craps table. One of the worst bets in the casino is the big 6 | 8 and all the center-field bets. iirc they call those "the bets that keep the lights on", iirc it's closer to 4% house edge, but i'd have to go look at the payouts and write 12 numbers on the back of a napkin to double check.

A large spread between min and max bet coupled with a frequently shuffled deck makes martingale a surprisingly effective strategy. It's non-intuitive but it works.

treetalker 2y ago

Positive expected value, or effective as in "lose slower"? My understanding was that Martingale is (almost?) always negative expected value.

andreareina 2y ago
Martingale depends on (a) an infinite bankroll, and (b) being able to place an arbitrarily large bet, neither of which hold in the real world.
- ScottPowers 2y ago
  [dead]

genewitch 2y ago

martingale's expected payout at the end of the run of bets is whatever the first bet was. Reverse martingale is a viable betting strategy, one which when employed at craps will get you real close to the -0.16% expected payout. martingale you increase your bet when you lose, and go back to your base bet when you win. Reverse martingale you have tiered bets, i use 5 tiers, just 1-5 times the base bet. I do $5 craps, so on the pass line i'll put $5. win, put $10. win, put $15, win put $15, win put $20, win put $25, and $25 then on out. if at any point you lose you go back to base bet, $5 in my case. You'll note that after winning the $15 bet, i am no longer betting my money, all further bets in that run are all the casino's money. That is why i like this method. I go in with $200, i get 40 chips, i get to lose 40 games in a row. I've only walked out of a casino loser once, too. reverse martingale works with any game where you can choose how much to bet, including video poker, roulette, and keno i guess. I wouldn't use it on poker, because betting is a different strategy, and i wouldn't use it on blackjack as it's "too choppy", especially with lots of people and 6 decks, imo. The best bet for the player in the casino is "don't come" with odds, after the button is on - on the craps table. One of the worst bets in the casino is the big 6 | 8 and all the center-field bets. iirc they call those "the bets that keep the lights on", iirc it's closer to 4% house edge, but i'd have to go look at the payouts and write 12 numbers on the back of a napkin to double check.