There's a case to be made for expecting misdirection more often, but the fact remains that most people, including malicious actors, don't have the foresight and

There's a case to be made for expecting misdirection more often, but the fact remains that most people, including malicious actors, don't have the foresight and skill to pull it off. You do need both. Unless you plan a consistent fake story from the very start of an identity, execute it consistently, and hermetically isolate it from any others, you'll leave clues.